Introduction to the Collection: Climate Change, Insect Pests, and Beneficial Arthropods in Production Systems.

Climate change is expected to alter pressure from insect pests and the abundance and effectiveness of insect pollinators across diverse agriculture and forestry systems. In response to warming, insects are undergoing or are projected to undergo shifts in their geographic ranges, voltinism, abundance, and phenology. Drivers include direct effects on the focal insects and indirect effects mediated by their interactions with species at higher or lower trophic levels. These climate-driven effects are complex and variable, sometimes increasing pest pressure or reducing pollination and sometimes with opposite effects depending on climatic baseline conditions and the interplay of these drivers. This special collection includes several papers illustrative of these biological effects on pests and pollinators. In addition, in response to or anticipating climate change, producers are modifying production systems by introducing more or different crops into rotations or as cover crops or intercrops or changing crop varieties, with potentially substantial effects on associated insect communities, an aspect of climate change that is relatively understudied. This collection includes several papers illustrating these indirect production system-level effects. Together, biological and management-related effects on insects comprise the necessary scope for anticipating and responding to the effects of climate change on insects in agriculture and forest systems.

Modeling Rangeland Grasshopper (Orthoptera: Acrididae) Population Density Using a Landscape-Level Predictive Mapping Approach.

Since the mid-19th century, grasshoppers have posed a substantial threat to North American rangelands as well as adjacent croplands and have the potential to cost the economy millions of dollars in annual damages. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) have gone to great lengths to ensure that rangeland grasshopper populations remain below an economic impact threshold across the western United States. However, current grasshopper forecasting efforts by the USDA are based solely on the previous year's grasshopper density and do not take region-specific environmental factors (e.g., climate and topography) into account. To better understand the effects of climate and landscape heterogeneity on rangeland grasshopper populations, we assessed the relationship between grasshopper density survey data from across 56 sites between 2007 and 2017 for four counties in north central Wyoming with 72 biologically relevant geographic information system (GIS)-based environmental variables. A regression model was developed to predict mean adult grasshopper density from 2012 to 2016, which was then used to forecast grasshopper density in 2017. The best-fit predictive model selected using Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) explained 34.5% of the variation in mean grasshopper density from 2012 to 2016. October precipitation and past mean grasshopper density from 2007 to 2011 were among the best predictors of mean grasshopper density in 2012-2016. Our results also suggest that rangelands in central Sheridan County, southwest Johnson County, and southeast Washakie County are more prone to grasshopper outbreaks. Most importantly, this study demonstrated that both biotic and abiotic environmental variables influence grasshopper density and should be considered in future forecasting efforts.

The Potential Global Distribution and Voltinism of the Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Current and Future Climates.

Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman), is a severe invasive insect pest of turf, landscapes, and horticultural crops. It has successfully colonized much of the United States and has recently established in mainland Europe. The distribution and voltinism of P. japonica will undoubtedly change as a consequence of climate change, posing additional challenges to the management of this species. To assess these challenges, a process-oriented bioclimatic niche model for P. japonica was developed to examine its potential global distribution under current (1981-2010) and projected climatic conditions (2040-2059) using one emission scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) and two global climate models, ACCESS1-0 and CNRM-CM5. Under current climatic conditions, the bioclimatic niche model agreed well with all credible distribution data. Model projections indicate a strong possibility of further range expansion throughout mainland Europe under both current and future climates. In North America, projected increases in temperature would enable northward range expansion across Canada while simultaneously shifting southern range limits in the United States. In Europe, the suitable range for P. japonica would increase by 23% by midcentury, especially across portions of the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Scandinavia. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, cumulative growing degree-days increased, thereby reducing the probability of biannual life cycles in northern latitudes where they can occur, including Hokkaido, Japan, northeastern portions of the United States, and southern Ontario, Canada. The results of this study highlight several regions of increasing and emerging risk from P. japonica that should be considered routinely in ongoing biosecurity and pest management surveys.