ABSTRACT
Quantitative analyses of global diversity in the marine fossil record over Phanerozoic time reveal an historically ordered pattern of sequential dominance and increasing diversity. Explanatory models applied to this empirical pattern lead to irreconcilable differences of interpretation. The issue may be resolved by determining the expected distributions and limits of temporal covariation among clades generated by a random branching process. Results also challenge the claim that asymmetries in intra-clade diversity variation provide a directional arrow for the history of life.
ABSTRACT
The temporal spacing and the magnitude of major extinctions over the past 250 and 570 million years, based on the use of different metrics of extinction probability, are analyzed by comparing deterministic and stochastic explanations. The best-fitting time series model is a stochastic autoregressive model that displays a pseudoperiodic behavior with a cycle length of 31 million years for the past 250 million years, regardless of the metric of extinction probability. The periodicity lengthens and weakens when the analysis is extended to the entire Phanerozoic. The history of the probability of extinction for the entire Phanerozoic, based on time series analysis, does not support the reported bipartite distribution of Van Valen. Rather, the probability of extinction has decreased uniformly over Phanerozoic time whereas the inertia or stability of the biotic system after the Late Permian crisis has increased.
ABSTRACT
Spiral and meander foraging traces in the deep sea are not distributed in proportion to assumed food availability. Data collected by means of deep-sea photography failed to reveal a bathymetric gradient in behavioral complexity or sensitivity. The foraging paradigm developed by numerous trace fossil studies does not adequately predict the modern environment.
