Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment.

Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.

Foraging, bioenergetic and predation constraints on diel vertical migration: field observations and modelling of reverse migration by young-of-the-year herring Clupea harengus.

Diel vertical migration (DVM) of young-of-the-year (YOY) herring Clupea harengus and one of their major predators, pikeperch Sander lucioperca, was examined using bottom-mounted hydroacoustics in Himmerfjärden, a brackish bay of the Baltic Sea, in summer. In contrast to previous studies on DVM of C. harengus aggregated across size and age classes, YOY C. harengus showed a reverse DVM trajectory, deeper at night and, on average, shallower during the day. This pattern was observed consistently on five acoustic sampling occasions in 3 years and was corroborated by two out of three trawl surveys. Large acoustic targets (target strength >-33 dB, probably piscivorous S. lucioperca >45 cm) showed a classic DVM trajectory, shallow at night and deeper during the day. Variability in YOY C. harengus vertical distribution peaked at dawn and dusk, and their vertical distribution at midday was distinctly bimodal. This reverse DVM pattern was consistent with bioenergetic model predictions for YOY C. harengus which have rapid gut evacuation rates and do not feed at night. Reverse DVM also resulted in low spatial overlap with predators.

A simulation of food-web interactions leading to rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax dominance in Sparkling Lake, Wisconsin.

A process-based simulation model was used to examine the nature and intensity of food-web interactions that allow Osmerus mordax to dominate invaded lakes. The model simulates food-web interactions among linked populations of O. mordax, Coregonus artedi and Sander vitreus. Simulations indicated that O. mordax dominate where: (1) adult O. mordax prey on young-of-the-year (YOY) C. artedi, (2) YOY O. mordax negatively affect YOY S. vitreus through competition and (3) adult S. vitreus experience moderate fishing mortality. Osmerus mordax dominated simulations across a broad range of variable values that regulated competition and predation, and displayed threshold responses to increasing angler harvest. Consequently, angler harvest should be carefully managed in lakes susceptible to O. mordax invasions because the alternative could lead to fishery collapse.

Leading indicators of trophic cascades.

Regime shifts are large, long-lasting changes in ecosystems. They are often hard to predict but may have leading indicators which are detectable in advance. Potential leading indicators include wider swings in dynamics of key ecosystem variables, slower return rates after perturbation and shift of variance towards lower frequencies. We evaluated these indicators using a food web model calibrated to long-term whole-lake experiments. We investigated whether impending regime shifts driven by gradual increase in exploitation of the top predator can create signals that cascade through food webs and be discerned in phytoplankton. Substantial changes in standard deviations, return rates and spectra occurred near the switch point, even two trophic levels removed from the regime shift in fishes. Signals of regime shift can be detected well in advance, if the driver of the regime shift changes much more slowly than the dynamics of key ecosystem variables which can be sampled frequently enough to measure the indicators. However, the regime shift may occur long after the driver has passed the critical point, because of very slow transient dynamics near the critical point. Thus, the ecosystem can be poised for regime shift by the time the signal is discernible. Field tests are needed to evaluate these indicators.

Regulation of Lake Primary Productivity by Food Web Structure.

We performed whole-lake manipulations of fish populations to test the hypothesis that higher trophic levels regulate zooplankton and phytoplankton community structure, biomass, and primary productivity. The study involved three lakes and spanned 2 yr. Results demonstrated hierarchical control of primary production by abiotic factors and a trophic cascade involving fish predation. In Paul Lake, the reference lake, productivity varied from year to year, illustrating the effects of climatic factors and the natural dynamics of unmanipulated food web interactions. In Tuesday Lake, piscivore addition and planktivore reduction caused an increase in zooplankton biomass, a compositional shift from a copepod/rotifer assemblage to a cladoceran assemblage, a reduction in algal biomass, and a continuous reduction in primary productivity. In Peter Lake, piscivore reduction and planktivore addition decreased zooplanktivory, because potential planktivores remained in littoral refugia to escape from remaining piscivores. Both zooplankton biomass and the dominance of large cladocerans increased. Algal biomass and primary production increased because of increased concentrations of gelatinous colonial green algae. Food web effects and abiotic factors were equally potent regulators of primary production in these experiments. Some of the unexplained variance in primary productivity of the world's lakes may be attributed to variability in fish populations and its effects on lower trophic levels.

Deep-sea foraging behavior: its bathymetric potential in the fossil record.

Spiral and meander foraging traces in the deep sea are not distributed in proportion to assumed food availability. Data collected by means of deep-sea photography failed to reveal a bathymetric gradient in behavioral complexity or sensitivity. The foraging paradigm developed by numerous trace fossil studies does not adequately predict the modern environment.