ABSTRACT
COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.
ABSTRACT
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Agriculture , Biodiversity , Carbon , Climate , Conservation of Natural Resources , Crops, Agricultural , Environment , Europe , Greenhouse Effect , Humans , Models, Statistical , Models, Theoretical , Socioeconomic Factors , Trees/growth & development , Urban Population , Water Supply , WoodABSTRACT
Este trabajo presenta el desarrollo histórico de las ideas conceptuales que respaldan las evaluaciones de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático. Se describen distintas generaciones de evaluaciones por medio de un marco basado en las relaciones de causa y efecto y la formulación de estrategias de respuesta. (AU)
Subject(s)
Climate ChangeABSTRACT
It examines the likely magnitude of climate change in coastal areas in the 21st Century and how we can systematically analyse the potential impacts and adaptation options. Document in pdf format.
