Effects of resource availability and interspecific interactions on Arctic and red foxes' winter use of ungulate carrion in the Fennoscandian low-Arctic tundra.

In the Arctic tundra, predators face recurrent periods of food scarcity and often turn to ungulate carcasses as an alternative food source. As important and localized resource patches, carrion promotes co-occurrence of different individuals, and its use by predators is likely to be affected by interspecific competition. We studied how interspecific competition and resource availability impact winter use of carrion by Arctic and red foxes in low Arctic Fennoscandia. We predicted that the presence of red foxes limits Arctic foxes' use of carrion, and that competition depends on the availability of other resources. We monitored Arctic and red fox presence at supp lied carrion using camera traps. From 2006 to 2021, between 16 and 20 cameras were active for 2 months in late winter (288 camera-winters). Using a multi-species dynamic occupancy model at a week-to-week scale, we evaluated the use of carrion by foxes while accounting for the presence of competitors, rodent availability, and supplemental feeding provided to Arctic foxes. Competition affected carrion use by increasing both species' probability to leave occupied carcasses between consecutive weeks. This increase was similar for the two species, suggesting symmetrical avoidance. Increased rodent abundance was associated with a higher probability of colonizing carrion sites for both species. For Arctic foxes, however, this increase was only observed at carcasses unoccupied by red foxes, showing greater avoidance when alternative preys are available. Supplementary feeding increased Arctic foxes' carrion use, regardless of red fox presence. Contrary to expectations, we did not find strong signs of asymmetric competition for carrion in winter, which suggests that interactions for resources at a short time scale are not necessarily aligned with interactions at the scale of the population. In addition, we found that competition for carcasses depends on the availability of other resources, suggesting that interactions between predators depend on the ecological context.

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.