Robust group- but limited individual-level (longitudinal) reliability and insights into cross-phases response prediction of conditioned fear.

Here, we follow the call to target measurement reliability as a key prerequisite for individual-level predictions in translational neuroscience by investigating (1) longitudinal reliability at the individual and (2) group level, (3) internal consistency and (4) response predictability across experimental phases. One hundred and twenty individuals performed a fear conditioning paradigm twice 6 months apart. Analyses of skin conductance responses, fear ratings and blood oxygen level dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD fMRI) with different data transformations and included numbers of trials were conducted. While longitudinal reliability was rather limited at the individual level, it was comparatively higher for acquisition but not extinction at the group level. Internal consistency was satisfactory. Higher responding in preceding phases predicted higher responding in subsequent experimental phases at a weak to moderate level depending on data specifications. In sum, the results suggest that while individual-level predictions are meaningful for (very) short time frames, they also call for more attention to measurement properties in the field.

Multiverse analyses in fear conditioning research.

There is heterogeneity in and a lack of consensus on the preferred statistical analyses in light of a multitude of potentially equally justifiable approaches. Here, we introduce multiverse analysis for the field of experimental psychopathology research. We present a model multiverse approach tailored to fear conditioning research and, as a secondary aim, introduce the R package 'multifear' that allows to run all the models though a single line of code. Model specifications and data reduction approaches were identified through a systematic literature search. The heterogeneity of statistical models identified included Bayesian ANOVA and t-tests as well as frequentist ANOVA, t-test as well as mixed models with a variety of data reduction approaches. We illustrate the power of a multiverse analysis for fear conditioning data based on two pre-existing data sets with partial (data set 1) and 100% reinforcement rate (data set 2) by using CS discrimination in skin conductance responses (SCRs) during fear acquisition and extinction training as case examples. Both the effect size and the direction of effect was impacted by choice of the model and data reduction techniques. We anticipate that an increase in multiverse-type of studies will aid the development of formal theories through the accumulation of empirical evidence and ultimately aid clinical translation.

Effects of intolerance of uncertainty on subjective and psychophysiological measures during fear acquisition and delayed extinction.

Individuals who score high in self-reported Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) tend to find uncertainty unacceptable and aversive. In recent years, research has shed light on the role of IU in modulating subjective (i.e. expectancy ratings) and psychophysiological responses (i.e. skin conductance) across different classical fear conditioning procedures. In particular, during immediate extinction higher IU is associated with disrupted safety learning. However, there remain gaps in understanding how IU, in comparison to other negative emotionality traits (STAI-T), impact different types of subjective and psychophysiological measures during different classical fear conditioning procedures. In our exploratory study, we analyzed IU, STAI-T, subjective (i.e. fear ratings) and psychophysiological (i.e. skin conductance, auditory startle blink) data recorded during fear acquisition training and 24 h-delayed extinction training (n = 66). Higher IU, controlled for STAI-T, was: (1) significantly associated with greater fear ratings to the learned fear cue during fear acquisition training, and (2) at trend associated with greater fear ratings to the learned fear versus safe cue during delayed extinction training. Null results were observed for both IU and STAI-T in relation to skin conductance and auditory startle blink during fear acquisition training and delayed extinction training. These results add to and extend our current understanding of the role of IU on subjective and physiological measures during different fear conditioning procedures particularly that of subjective fear ratings during acquisition and delayed extinction training. Implications of these findings and future directions are discussed.

Revisiting potential associations between brain morphology, fear acquisition and extinction through new data and a literature review.

Inter-individual differences in defensive responding are widely established but their morphological correlates in humans have not been investigated exhaustively. Previous studies reported associations with cortical thickness of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, insula and medial orbitofrontal cortex as well as amygdala volume in fear conditioning studies. However, these associations are partly inconsistent and often derived from small samples. The current study aimed to replicate previously reported associations between physiological and subjective measures of fear acquisition and extinction and brain morphology. Structural magnetic resonance imaging was performed on 107 healthy adults who completed a differential cued fear conditioning paradigm with 24 h delayed extinction while skin conductance response (SCR) and fear ratings were recorded. Cortical thickness and subcortical volume were obtained using the software Freesurfer. Results obtained by traditional null hypothesis significance testing and Bayesians statistics do not support structural brain-behavior relationships: Neither differential SCR nor fear ratings during fear acquisition or extinction training could be predicted by cortical thickness or subcortical volume in regions previously reported. In summary, the current pre-registered study does not corroborate associations between brain morphology and inter-individual differences in defensive responding but differences in experimental design and analyses approaches compared to previous work should be acknowledged.

Navigating the garden of forking paths for data exclusions in fear conditioning research.

In this report, we illustrate the considerable impact of researcher degrees of freedom with respect to exclusion of participants in paradigms with a learning element. We illustrate this empirically through case examples from human fear conditioning research, in which the exclusion of 'non-learners' and 'non-responders' is common - despite a lack of consensus on how to define these groups. We illustrate the substantial heterogeneity in exclusion criteria identified in a systematic literature search and highlight the potential problems and pitfalls of different definitions through case examples based on re-analyses of existing data sets. On the basis of these studies, we propose a consensus on evidence-based rather than idiosyncratic criteria, including clear guidelines on reporting details. Taken together, we illustrate how flexibility in data collection and analysis can be avoided, which will benefit the robustness and replicability of research findings and can be expected to be applicable to other fields of research that involve a learning element.