Validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of cancer in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and main duct dilatation of 10 mm or less.

BACKGROUND: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is premalignant pancreatic lesion. International guidelines offer limited predictors of individual risk. A nomogram to predict individual IPMN malignancy risk was released, with good diagnostic performance based on a large cohort of Asian patients with IPMN. The present study validated a nomogram to predict malignancy risk and invasiveness of IPMN using both Eastern and Western cohorts. METHODS: Clinicopathological and radiological data from patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN at four centres each in Eastern and Western countries were collected. After excluding patients with missing data for at least one malignancy predictor in the nomogram (main pancreatic duct diameter, cyst size, presence of mural nodule, serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels, and age). RESULTS: In total, data from 393 patients who fit the criteria were analysed, of whom 265 were from Eastern and 128 from Western institutions. Although mean age, sex, log value of serum CA19-9 level, tumour location, main duct diameter, cyst size and presence of mural nodule differed between the Korean/Japanese, Eastern and Western cohorts, rates of malignancy and invasive cancer did not differ significantly. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values for the nomogram predicting malignancy were 0·745 for Eastern, 0·856 for Western and 0·776 for combined cohorts; respective values for the nomogram predicting invasiveness were 0·736, 0·891 and 0·788. CONCLUSIONS: External validation of the nomogram showed good performance in predicting cancer in both Eastern and Western patients with IPMN lesions.

ANTECEDENTES: La neoplasia mucinosa papilar intraductal (intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, IPMN) es una lesión pancreática premaligna. Las guías internacionales incluyen un número limitado de factores predictivos de riesgo individual. Para predecir el riesgo individual de malignidad del IPMN se ha propuesto un nomograma con un buen rendimiento diagnóstico, basado en una gran cohorte de pacientes asiáticos con IPMN. Este estudio validó el nomograma para predecir el riesgo de cáncer y de invasión de la IPMN utilizando cohortes tanto orientales como occidentales. MÉTODOS: Se recogieron datos clínico-patológicos y radiológicos de pacientes en los que se realizó una resección de páncreas por IPMN en 4 centros en países orientales y en 4 centros de países occidentales. Se excluyeron los pacientes en los que en el nomograma faltaba ≥ 1 factor(es) predictivo(s) de malignidad (diámetro del conducto pancreático principal, tamaño del quiste, presencia de nódulo mural, niveles séricos de CEA y CA19-9, y edad). RESULTADOS: En total, se analizaron datos de 393 pacientes que cumplían con los criterios de inclusión, de los cuales 265 eran de centros orientales y 128 de centros occidentales. Aunque la edad media, el sexo, el valor logarítmico del nivel sérico de CA19-9, la localización del tumor, el diámetro del conducto principal, el tamaño del quiste y la presencia de un nódulo mural difirieron entre las cohortes de Corea/Japón y las cohortes oriental y occidental, las tasas de malignidad y de cáncer invasivo no fueron significativamente diferentes. Las áreas bajo la curva operativa del receptor (area under the receiver operating curve, AUC) que mostró el nomograma para predecir la malignidad fueron: cohorte oriental: 0,745; cohorte occidental: 0,856 y cohortes combinadas: 0,776; y para predecir la invasión tumoral fueron: cohorte oriental: 0,736; cohorte occidental: 0,891, y cohortes combinadas: 0,788. CONCLUSIÓN: La validación externa del nomograma mostró un buen rendimiento en la predicción de cáncer, tanto en pacientes orientales como occidentales con lesiones IPMN.

External validation of a simplified BCLC staging system for early hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The aim was to externally validate the capability of a simplified Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (s-BCLC) staging system in allocating patients to hepatic resection (HR) and the effect on survival: S-BCLC was defined by only 2 groups: AA included BCLC A1 + A2 classes with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≤ 20 ng/ml and AB included A1 + A2 with AFP > 20 ng/ml plus A3 + A4 subgroups. METHODS: This study compared a training group (TG) with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) submitted to hepatic resection (HR) in Milan with another group of patients, the validation group (VG) in Creteil. All patients underwent ultrasound-guided anatomical resection (<3 segments). RESULTS: Overall survival got worse from A1 to A4 (p = 0.0271) in TG (n = 132), as well as in VG (n = 100) (p = 0.0044) with a more important overlapping of each curves. According s-BCLC classification, the survival curves of TG (p = 0.0001) and VG (p = 0.0250) showed a definitive separation in two different staging groups. The s-BCLC provided the best predictive accuracy and it also presented the highest separability index and C-statistics in both TG and VG. On the other hand, in the evaluation of discriminatory ability for death, measured by ROC curve areas, the s-BCLC system gave better results than the others. CONCLUSION: This experience stressed the high value of BCLC system in staging of HCC, but the s-BCLC system seems to be more useful for therapeutic decision making.

Two-stage operative cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy for diffuse malignant peritoneal mesothelioma: Operative morbidity and mortality in phase I and II trials.

AIMS: The standard of care for diffuse malignant peritoneal mesothelioma involves operative cytoreduction and intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Most centers favor aggressive operative cytoreduction, accepting high morbidity and mortality. In our trials, patients underwent less extensive cytoreduction followed by prolonged intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Patients underwent a second cytoreduction with heated intraperitoneal chemotherapy. We hypothesized this would result in lower operative morbidity and mortality with similar survival. METHODS: Hospital records, discharge summaries, microbiology, radiography, and office records were retrospectively reviewed to supplement a prospective database. 30-day morbidity and mortality were categorized, and classified according to the Clavien methodology. RESULTS: 47 first and 39 second operations were performed with 13% and 26% morbidity, respectively. Mortality was 2%. Infections comprised 59% of the morbidity. Inclusive of both operations, formal peritonectomy was performed in 16% of patients, resection of isolated lesions in less than half, and only 19% had a visceral organs other than the spleen resected. At the completion of the protocol, only 3% of patients had visible intraperitoneal disease. The mean total length of stay for both operations combined was 16 ± 23 days. Overall median survival was 54.9 months, and median survival for the epithelioid subtype was 70.2 months. CONCLUSIONS: A two-stage cytoreduction with intraperitoneal chemotherapy offers median survival comparable to one-stage protocols, with relatively low morbidity, mortality, visceral resections and length of stay despite two operations. This series supports that our protocol is a feasible and safe approach.

Retrospective validation of a surveillance system for unexplained illness and death: New Haven County, Connecticut.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated retrospective validation of a prospective surveillance system for unexplained illness and death due to possibly infectious causes. METHODS: A computerized search of hospital discharge data identified patients with potential unexplained illness and death due to possibly infectious causes. Medical records for such patients were reviewed for satisfaction of study criteria. Cases identified retrospectively were combined with prospectively identified cases to form a reference population against which sensitivity could be measured. RESULTS: Retrospective validation was 41% sensitive, whereas prospective surveillance was 73% sensitive. The annual incidence of unexplained illness and death due to possibly infectious causes during 1995 and 1996 in the study county was conservatively estimated to range from 2.7 to 6.2 per 100,000 residents aged 1 to 49 years. CONCLUSIONS: Active prospective surveillance for unexplained illness and death due to possibly infectious causes is more sensitive than retrospective surveillance conducted through a published list of indicator codes. However, retrospective surveillance can be a feasible and much less labor-intensive alternative to active prospective surveillance when the latter is not possible or desired.