Do wars abroad affect attitudes at home?

Can foreign conflicts affect attitudes in nonbelligerent countries? A large literature studies the effects of conflicts and wars on countries that are directly involved, without considering the potential consequences for other nonbelligerent countries that might nevertheless be threatened. To address this question, we examine how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected 12 economic and political attitudes using survey data covering eight European countries. We use a natural experiment whereby the timing of the invasion overlapped with the fieldwork of a cross-national individual-level survey in these eight countries. We find that the war increased support for democracy, redistribution, support for Europe, and immigration, while it reduced authoritarian attitudes. Our findings highlight the impact of foreign conflicts on a wide range of attitudes in countries that are externally threatened, but neither directly involved militarily, nor necessarily very close to the conflict.

Governance in times of war: Public procurement in Ukraine.

Wars increase the importance of government functions, yet they also constrain their ability to fulfill these functions. In particular, wars hinder economic activity, thereby limiting governments' capacity to raise the revenues required to maintain stability and meet the heightened needs of citizens. Effective governance is therefore severely undermined in times of war. However, empirical research on how wars affect government procurement is limited. We address this gap by exploring procurement dynamics using over one million public purchases of goods and services in Ukraine between January 2021 and October 2022, corresponding to the Russian invasion of the country. We document a large fall in the total number of purchases since the invasion and an increase in the share of successfully completed procurements. This higher success rate comes at the cost of efficiency, with the government paying more to source their goods. This can be attributed to the decline in the share of government purchases via online auctions and the reduced competition. Thus, the prioritization of the quick acquisition of goods and services forced governments to sacrifice cost-effectiveness. In summary, the war did not lower the successful purchasing of private goods and services, and transparency was not decreased. However, the trade-off of speed and transparency for greater costs may become increasingly problematic with the growing budget constraints resulting from the war. This article contributes to our understanding of the Ukrainian government choices during the early phase of the war. The results also highlight the importance of ensuring procurement efficiency and transparency when the war ends as reconstruction efforts will require substantial increases in government procurements.

Partisanship and Covid-19 vaccination in the UK.

This article examines the association between partisanship and vaccination in the UK. The lower vaccination rates among Republicans in the US have been linked to ideology and President Trump's anti-vaccination rhetoric. By contrast, both ruling and opposition parties in the UK promoted the national vaccination program. Using two datasets at constituency and individual levels, we analyse whether there are partisan differences in uptake when vaccination garners cross-party support. Our findings contrast in important ways from the US case. First, the correlation between partisanship and vaccination is the opposite to that of the US: both Conservative constituencies and individuals are associated with higher vaccination rates than Labour across almost all age groups. Thus, right-leaning individuals do not necessarily vaccinate less, at least when their political party is in power and supportive of vaccination. Second, partisanship alone accounts for a large share of variation in vaccination rates, but this association appears largely driven by socio-economic and demographic differences: older and economically better off individuals and constituencies tend to be more vaccinated. Once these controls are included, the correlation between Conservative partisanship and vaccination shrinks substantially. Hence, the ideological source of the partisan gap in vaccination rates appears smaller than in the US.

Pandemic and Partisan Polarisation: Voter Evaluation of UK Government Handling During Covid-19.

What is the effect of pandemics on partisan perceptions of government competence? Taking the case of Covid-19 in the UK, we explore how voters' assessments of the government's handling of the economy and health were affected by four events: the first UK Covid-19 death; the national lockdown; Boris Johnson's hospitalisation; and Cummings' scandal. Using a large representative weekly survey in the last year totalling over around 30'000 respondents, our results show that Labour voters had the worst assessments of government handling. The first death deteriorated perceptions of government handling of health among both Labour and Conservative voters, while Boris Johnson's hospitalisation improved perceptions among most voters. Lockdown improved the perception of health handling but at the cost of more negative perceptions of its handling of the economy. The Cummings scandal had a negative effect on perceptions of government handling of economy but surprisingly improved perceptions of its handling of health.

Quels sont les effets des pandémies sur les perceptions partisanes de la performance gouvernementale? Cet article analyse comment quatre évènements liés au COVID­19 au Royaume­Uni ont affecté la façon dont les électeurs perçoivent la compétence gouvernementale: le premier mort du COVID­19 au Royaume­Uni, le confinement national, l'hospitalisation de Boris Johnson, et l'affaire Cummings. Nous utilisons un sondage à partir d'un échantillon de plus de 30 000 résidents britanniques. Nos résultats suggèrent que les électeurs du parti travailliste avaient la perception la plus négative du gouvernement conservateur. Le premier décès a détérioré la perception de la compétence gouvernementale dans le domaine de la santé, alors que l'hospitalisation de Johnson a amélioré la perception de la performance gouvernementale. Le confinement national a amélioré les perceptions de la compétence gouvernementale dans le domaine de la santé au détriment de celui de l'économie. Le scandale de Cummings a eu un effet négatif sur la perception de la compétence économique, mais ­ paradoxalement ­ positif pour la santé.