Modeling the United Oscillation and Wave of economic policy and urban planning employing spatial population dynamics.

Modern urban dynamics are increasingly shaped by the interplay between economic policy and urban planning, yet often lack an integrated approach. This study bridges this gap by examining the dynamic equilibrium between these two realms using the "Oscillation and Wave Framework." Specifically, we focus on the impact of variations in congestion parameter λ on urban sectoral spatial distribution and population dynamics. Our approach utilizes an advanced agent-based model to simulate interactions within an urban economic landscape, offering a detailed analysis of the relationship between agglomeration economies and congestion diseconomies. The results highlight the significant influence of congestion parameter adjustments on urban patterns, particularly in terms of cluster density and development. Therefore, this study not only provides a deeper understanding of the intricate balance between economic and urban planning factors but also emphasizes the necessity of incorporating these insights into urban planning and policy formulation for sustainable urban development. The findings also have important practical implications for addressing the dynamic complexities of urban environments, especially the interactions between different industries and their role in shaping urban structures.

The triple burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases and injuries on sex differences in life expectancy in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has experienced great improvements in life expectancy (LE) at birth over the last three decades. Despite consistent increases in LE for both males and females in Ethiopia, the country has simultaneously witnessed an increasing discrepancy in LE between males and females. METHODS: This study used Pollard's actuarial method of decomposing LE to compare age- and cause- specific contributions to changes in sex differences in LE between 1995 and 2015 in Ethiopia. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in Ethiopia increased for both males and females from 48.28 years and 50.12 years in 1995 to 65.59 years and 69.11 years in 2015, respectively. However, the sex differences in LE at birth also increased from 1.85 years in 1995 to 3.51 years in 2015. Decomposition analysis shows that the higher male mortality was consistently due to injuries and respiratory infections, which contributed to 1.57 out of 1.85 years in 1995 and 1.62 out of 3.51 years in 2015 of the sex differences in LE. Increased male mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) also contributed to the increased difference in LE between males and females over the period, accounting for 0.21 out of 1.85 years and 1.05 out of 3.51 years in 1995 and 2015, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While injuries and respiratory infections causing male mortality were the most consistent causes of the sex differences in LE in Ethiopia, morality from NCDs is the main cause of the recent increasing differences in LE between males and females. However, unlike the higher exposure of males to death from injuries due to road traffic injuries or interpersonal violence, to what extent sex differences are caused by the higher male mortality compared to female mortality from respiratory infection diseases is unclear. Similarly, despite Ethiopia's weak social security system, an explanation for the increased sex differences after the age of 40 years due to either longer female LE or reduced male LE should be further investigated.

Mind the gaps: age and cause specific mortality and life expectancy in the older population of South Korea and Japan.

BACKGROUND: Recent life expectancy gains in high-income Asia-pacific countries have been largely the result of postponement of death from non-communicable diseases in old age, causing rapid demographic ageing. This study compared and quantified age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy in two high-income Asia-pacific countries with ageing populations, South Korea and Japan. METHODS: This study used Pollard's actuarial method of decomposing life expectancy to compare age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy between South Korea and Japan during 1997 and 2017. RESULTS: South Korea experienced rapid population ageing, and the gaps in life expectancy at 60 years old between South Korea and Japan were reduced by 2.47 years during 1997 and 2017. Decomposition analysis showed that mortality reductions from non-communicable diseases in South Korea were the leading causes of death contributing to the decreased gaps in old-age life expectancy between the two countries. More specifically, mortality reductions from cardiovascular diseases (stroke, ischaemic and hypertensive heart disease) and cancers (stomach, liver, lung, pancreatic cancers) in South Korea contributed to the decreased gap by 1.34 and 0.41 years, respectively. However, increased mortality from Alzheimer and dementia, lower respiratory tract disease, self-harm and falls in South Korea widened the gaps by 0.41 years. CONCLUSIONS: Age- and cause- specific contributions to changes in old-age life expectancy can differ between high-income Asia-pacific countries. Although the gaps in old-age life expectancy between high-income Asia-pacific countries are primarily attributed to mortality changes in non-communicable diseases, these countries should also identify potential emerging threats of communicable diseases and injuries along with demographic ageing in pursuit of healthy life years in old age.

Rationale, design, and characteristics of the multimedia family planning campaign for a small, happy, and prosperous family in Ethiopia (SHaPE).

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, has a total fertility rate of 4.6, a decrease from 5.5 in 2000. However, only 35.3% of women in the reproductive age group use modern family planning (FP) methods, and the 22.3% of them who have an unmet need for family planning is among the highest rates in sub-Saharan African countries. The Small, Happy, and Prosperous family in Ethiopia (SHaPE) is one of the country's first comprehensive multimedia family planning campaigns. Its purpose is to increase FP-related knowledge, attitude, and practice of Ethiopians, particularly women of reproductive age. METHODS/DESIGN: The SHaPE campaign has multiple components: (1) a nationwide representative survey, which serves as formative research to identify region-specific and culture-appropriate media, messages, and barriers and determinants of family planning; (2) a multimedia communication campaign intervention, including radio dramas and other interpersonal, community-level, and mass media channels; and (3) campaign evaluation, including pre-, process-, and post-evaluation research using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The main target population for SHaPE is reproductive age women and men in three regions: Amhara, Oromia, and Somali. These regions take up about 66.6% of the entire country and have distinct ethnicities, cultures, and languages. DISCUSSION: SHaPE contributes to existing family planning research and intervention because it is theory- and evidence-based, and it employs integrated marketing communications and entertainment-education approaches with key messages that are tailored to audiences within unique cultures. But even within a country, a nationwide campaign with uniform messages is neither possible nor desirable due to different cultures, norms, and languages across regions. Last, media campaigns in developing and underdeveloped countries require constant monitoring of political situations.

Structural Determinants in Family Planning Service Utilization in Ethiopia: EDHS 2011 Analysis.

Family planning coverage has improved in Ethiopia in the last decade, though fertility is still about 5.8 in the rural setup. In this paper, the major structural determinants of family planning service were analyzed using a multilevel model from 8906 individual women observation in the 2011 EDHS data. The results show that there is a big variation in family planning use both at the individual and between group levels. More than 39% of the variation in FP use is explained by contextual cluster level differences. Most of the socioeconomic predictors; respondent's education, ethnicity, and partners' education as well as employment status and urbanization were found to be significant factors that affect FP use. Similarly health extension visit and media access were found to be strong factors that affect FP service at both individual and cluster levels. This evidence concludes that addressing these contextual factors is very crucial to strengthen FP use and fertility reduction in the nation, beyond individual behavioral changes.