A population-based epidemiological study of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in Hungary.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to determine the prevalence and incidence of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) in Hungary based on the 2015 International Panel of NMO Diagnosis (IPND) criteria. METHODS: A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted of 6.4 million Hungarians (age ≥ 16 years) between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2016. Possible NMOSD patients were selected via multistage re-evaluation from multiple sources. Crude and sex- and serostatus-specific prevalence (per 100 000 persons) and incidence rates (per 1 000 000 person-years) from 2006 to 2015 were estimated and age-adjusted rates were determined. RESULTS: Of 2262 study candidates, 154 NMOSD patients (age ≥ 16 years) with onset until 31 December 2016 were identified based on 2015 IPND criteria. The prevalence analysis on 1 January 2016 included 123 NMOSD living cases, resulting in a prevalence of 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-2.28] per 100 000 persons. The 101 incident cases emerging from the observed 76 394 288 person-years provided an incidence rate of 1.32 (95% CI 1.08-1.61) per 1 000 000 person-years. Age-adjusted prevalence was 1.87 (95% CI 1.56-2.23) per 100 000 persons and incidence was 1.20 (95% CI 0.98-1.46) per 1 000 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: In this first report of a large population-based epidemiological study from an Eastern European Caucasian population using robust case validation, a greater prevalence and incidence of NMOSD was found compared to previous large studies in Caucasian populations.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is associated with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Subtypes of white blood cell counts are known biomarkers of systemic inflammation and a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been associated with several autoimmune diseases. Few studies have investigated the NLR in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between NLR, MS and disability measured by the MS severity score (MSSS). METHODS: Patients were included from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Biobank. Information on patient NLR was obtained just before their first treatment and clinical information was provided by the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Register. Information on NLR from controls was collected from the Danish Blood Donor Study. Patients and controls were 1:2 propensity score matched by baseline confounders. RESULTS: Propensity score matching left 740 of 743 MS patients and 1420 of 4691 controls for further analyses. Odds-ratio (OR) was 3.64 (95% confidence interval 2.87-4.60, p < 0.001) for MS disease per unit increase of logarithmically transformed NLR (ln-NLR), corresponding to an OR of 2.68 for each doubling of NLR. Mean NLR was 2.12 for patients and 1.72 for controls (p < 0.001). Ln-NLR correlated weakly with patient MSSS (R 2 = 0.019, p = 0.008). CONCLUSION: Patients with early MS had increased levels of NLR compared to healthy controls and NLR was weakly correlated with MSSS.

Early versus later treatment start in multiple sclerosis: a register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess long-term treatment effectiveness of disease-modifying therapy (DMT) initiated early in disease course versus later treatment start. METHODS: We included all Danish patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with DMT through two nationwide population-based MS registries. Patients were categorized as early treated if treatment started within 2 years after the first MS symptom (n = 2316) and later treated if treatment started between 2 and 8 years after clinical onset (n = 1479). We compared time from treatment start to progression to an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 6 and mortality between cohorts as hazard ratio (HR) using a Cox proportional hazards model with adjustment for stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The median follow-up time of 3795 patients was 7.0 (range 0.6-19.5) years for the EDSS score of 6 outcome and 10.4 (range 1.2-20.1) years for the mortality outcome. Patients with later treatment start showed a 42% increased hazard rate of reaching an EDSS score of 6 compared with the early-treated patients [HR, 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18-1.70; P < 0.001]. When stratified by sex, the increased hazard among later-treated women persisted (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.22-1.93; P < 0.001), whereas the HR was lower in men (1.25; 95% CI, 0.93-1.69; P = 0.15). Mortality was increased by 38% in later starters (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.96-1.99; P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who started treatment with DMT later reached an EDSS score of 6 more quickly compared with patients who started early and the delay showed a tendency to shorten time to death. Our results support the use of early treatment.

Chronic comorbidity in multiple sclerosis is associated with lower incomes and dissolved intimate relationships.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The social and economic consequences of comorbidity in multiple sclerosis (MS) are largely unexplored. Differences were investigated in income and in the rate of broken relationships between cases of MS with and without chronic comorbidity. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide cohort study including all incident cases of MS in Denmark with clinical MS onset between 1980 and 2005. The difference in income was investigated at MS onset and 5 and 10 years after MS onset. The difference in the rate of broken relationships was investigated in subjects who were in a relationship at MS onset or who entered a relationship after MS onset. We used logistic, multiple linear and Poisson regression analyses. RESULTS: Cases of MS with somatic comorbidity had increased odds of low incomes both 5 years {odds ratio (OR), 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19-1.67; P < 0.0005]} and 10 years [OR, 1.37 (95% CI, 1.17-1.60); P < 0.0005] after MS onset. The odds of a low income with psychiatric comorbidity was increased 10 years after MS onset [OR, 3.06 (95% CI, 1.47-6.37); P = 0.003]. The rate of broken relationships was increased in cases of MS with any somatic comorbidity [incidence rate ratio, 1.46 (95% CI, 1.32-1.61); P < 0.0005]. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the burden of comorbidity in MS on patients, their partners and society.

Early safety and efficacy of fingolimod treatment in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Initiation of fingolimod treatment is associated with a transient decrease of heart rate, and atrioventricular (AV) conduction block may occur. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the therapeutic effect and safety of fingolimod treatment in MS patients in Denmark with focus on cardiac and pulmonary side effects at treatment onset. MATERIALS & METHODS: We analysed data from the first 496 fingolimod-treated Danish patients, observed for at least 3 months. In a subset of 204 patients, we monitored cardiac and pulmonary adverse effects following treatment initiation. RESULTS: The overall annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.37 (95% CI 0.31-0.44); 0.22 (95% CI 0.03-0.81) in de novo-treated patients, 0.29 (95% CI; 0.23-0.37) in patients switching from IFN-beta or GA and 0.46 (9 5% CI 0.34-0.60) after natalizumab. In the subset of 204 patients, 8 (3.9%) required prolonged cardiac monitoring due to bradycardia and/or second-degree AV block type I. All patients recovered spontaneously. Two patients discontinued fingolimod. Eleven (5.4%) patients reported respiratory complaints and two of these patients discontinued treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Fingolimod appears to be safe and effective in MS patients in a clinical setting. Mild cardiac adverse effects occurred at a similar rate as in clinical trials.

Educational achievements of children of parents with multiple sclerosis: A nationwide register-based cohort study.

Little is known about the impact of parental multiple sclerosis (MS) on offspring's educational attainment. The objective of the study was to examine educational achievements in offspring of parents with MS compared with matched children of parents without MS in a nationwide register-based cohort study. Children of all Danish-born residents with onset between 1950 and 1986 were identified by linking the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry with the Civil Registration System. Twins, children with MS, and emigrated persons were excluded. The reference cohort consisted of randomly drawn individuals from the Civil Registration System without parental MS matched 8:1 to the MS offspring by sex and year of birth. Information about education was linked to the cohorts from nationwide educational registries. We included 4177 children of MS parents and 33,416 reference persons. Children of MS parents achieved statistically significant higher average grades than the reference cohort in their final exam of basic school with a mean grade difference of 0.46 (95 % CI 0.22-0.69; p = 0.0002). We found no difference in achievement of educational level above basic school (OR 1.04; 95 % CI 0.98-1.10; p = 0.20). There was a trend toward more MS offspring attaining health-related educations (OR 1.10; 95 % CI 1.00-1.21; p = 0.06). In conclusion, children of MS parents showed a small advantage in grade point average in final examinations in basic school, and they more often tended toward health-related educations. This study revealed no negative consequences of parental MS on grades and highest educational level achieved.

Registers of multiple sclerosis in Denmark.

There are two nationwide population-based registers for multiple sclerosis (MS) in Denmark. The oldest register is The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry (DMSR), which is an epidemiological register for estimation of prevalence and incidence of MS and survival, and for identifying exposures earlier in life that may affect the risk of MS. This register has no systematic follow-up data except for survival. The DMSR has over the years published nationwide incidence- and prevalence data from Denmark and has been involved in a number of 'historical prospective' studies to elucidate the association between a number of different environmental exposures in the past and the subsequent risk of MS. Some of these studies have been able to exonerate suspected risk factors. The other register, the nationwide Danish Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Register, is a follow-up register for all patients who have received disease-modifying treatments since 1996. It has, in particular, contributed to the knowledge of the role of antibodies against the biological drugs used for the treatment of MS.

Gender effects on treatment response to interferon-beta in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Gender appears to play a role in incidence and disease course of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine whether male and female patients with MS respond differently to interferon-beta treatment in terms of reduction in relapse rates. METHODS: We included all 2033 patients with relapsing-remitting MS who started treatment with interferon-beta from 1996 to 2003, identified from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Register. We defined neutralizing antibody (NAb)-positive and NAb-negative periods in the single patient by the results of the NAb tests. Patients served as their own controls, and relapse rates were compared between NAb-negative and NAb-positive periods. RESULTS: NAbs significantly abrogated the interferon-beta treatment efficacy in both genders. The all-over women:men relapse rate ratio irrespective of NAb status was 1.47 (95%CI; 1.28-1.68). In a generalized linear Poisson models analysis with relapse counts as response variable, the main effects NAbs, sex, age at treatment start and number of relapses in 2 years before treatment start were strongly significant, but the effect of NAbs on relapse rates did not differ significantly between men and women. CONCLUSION: As NAbs influenced the on-treatment relapse rates strongly in both sexes but without statistical significant difference, there is no indication of different effects of interferon-beta in men or women.

Prediction of response to interferon therapy in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes encoding interferon response factor (IRF)-5, IRF-8 and glypican-5 (GPC5) have been associated with disease activity in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients treated with interferon (IFN)-ß. We analysed whether SNPs in the IRF5, IRF8 and GPC5 genes are associated with clinical disease activity in MS patients beginning de novo treatment with IFN-ß. METHODS: The SNPs rs2004640, rs3807306 and rs4728142 in IRF5, rs13333054 and rs17445836 in IRF8 and rs10492503 in GPC5 were genotyped in 575 patients with relapsing-remitting MS followed prospectively after the initiation of their first treatment with IFN-ß. RESULTS: 62% of patients experienced relapses during the first 2 years of treatment, and 32% had disability progression during the first 5 years of treatment. Patients with a pretreatment annualized relapse rate >1 had an increased risk of relapse (hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.24-1.90) and progression (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.99) on treatment and patients with breakthrough relapses in the form of relapses during the first 2 years of treatment had an increased risk of progression during the first 5 years of treatment (hazard ratio 2.04, 95% confidence interval 1.47-2.85).The gene variants in IRF5, IRF8 and GPC5 were not associated with risk of relapse or disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Pretreatment relapse rate and clinical disease activity during the first 2 years of treatment may be associated with disease progression in MS patients treated with IFN-ß. Genetic analysis of the studied gene variants do not provide additional information.

The chemokine receptor CCR5 Δ32 allele in natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The chemokine receptor CCR5 may be important for the recruitment of pathogenic T cells to the CNS in multiple sclerosis (MS). We hypothesized that this chemokine receptor might still be important for T-cell migration during treatment with anti-very late antigen (VLA)-4 antibody. We therefore analysed whether natalizumab-treated MS patients carrying the CCR5 Δ32 deletion allele, which results in reduced expression of CCR5 on the cell surface, had lower disease activity. METHODS: CCR5 Δ32 was analysed in 212 natalizumab-treated MS patients. RESULTS: CCR5 Δ32 status had no significant impact on the frequency of relapses 1 year prior to natalizumab treatment or during the first 48 weeks of treatment. The multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS) was significantly lower at baseline in patients carrying CCR5 Δ32 (P = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: CCR5 Δ32 is not associated with lower disease activity in MS patients treated with natalizumab. We found lower MSSS scores in patients carrying CCR5 Δ32 compared with the remaining patients, which is consistent with previous studies reporting an association with a more favourable disease course. Further studies are, however, needed before the relationship between CCR5 Δ32 and disease activity in MS can be definitely established.

Multiple sclerosis and risk of Parkinson's disease: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Case reports have observed a co-occurrence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and Parkinson's disease (PD) and it has been hypothesized that MS lesions could affect dopaminergic pathways causing parkinsonism. Our aim was to examine the association between MS and PD in a historically prospective cohort study using Danish nationwide register data. METHODS: Multiple sclerosis patients identified in the Multiple Sclerosis Registry were followed for PD from 1977 to 2011 in the National Patient Register. As measures of relative risk, ratios of observed to expected incidence rates of first hospitalization for PD amongst persons with MS were used, i.e. standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Amongst 15,557 MS patients 26 cases of PD were observed versus 26.51 expected, reflecting no overall increased risk of PD (SIR 0.98, 95% CI 0.67-1.44). Similar estimates were seen for female (SIR 0.99, 95% CI 0.58-1.67) and male MS patients (SIR 0.97, 95% CI 0.55-1.72). Likewise, no increased risk of PD amongst MS patients was observed in a robustness analysis backdating the date of diagnosis of PD by 5 years to account for the time lag between disease onset and first hospital contact with PD (SIR 0.57, 95% CI 0.32-1.00). CONCLUSION: Our data do not suggest an increased risk of PD amongst patients with MS.

A web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort. METHODS: We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS. RESULTS: We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability. CONCLUSIONS: Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted.

The use of epidemiological multiple sclerosis registers in research: the Danish MS Registry.

INTRODUCTION: The claim of detection of several environmental risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS), some of them new, makes the research of population-based MS registers for critical review or confirmation of alleged associations more relevant than ever before. AIMS: To present examples of the use and important contributions from the Danish MS Registry (DMSR) over decades. METHODS: The DMSR has through more than six decades registered virtually all patients with MS in Denmark, using multiple sources of notification and has been used for descriptive epidemiology, follow-up studies, studies of comorbidity and 'historical prospective' studies of proposed risk factors for MS. RESULTS: Based on research from DMSR, we have found that female incidence of multiple sclerosis in Denmark has increased considerably; that patients with MS loose their working ability and their spouses/partners at a much higher rate than the background population; that patients with MS have a considerable excess mortality which seem to have decreased over several centuries decades - not centuries, also before the era of disease modifying treatment; that fewer patients with MS than expected from the population get diagnosed with or die from cancer; that infectious mononucleosis increases the risk of MS; that head trauma and a number of occupational exposures, for example, nurses, utility workers, exposure to solvents do not carry an enhanced risk of MS. CONCLUSION: The DMSR has, as an example of long-lasting population-based registers, proven to be an effective tool for studying MS epidemiology. In future, the need for this kind of registers will continue, as biology or immunology cannot stand alone.

Evaluating the use and limitations of the Danish National Patient Register in register-based research using an example of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The Danish National Patient Register, Landspatientregistret (LPR), is a register of all hospital discharges and outpatient treatments in Denmark. AIMS: It is increasingly used in research so it is important to understand to what extent this can be used as an accurate source of information. Virtually all patients in Denmark with multiple sclerosis (MS) are reported to the Combined MS Registry (DMSR), so this was used as the standard which the LPR was compared against. METHODS: All residents of Denmark are assigned a unique Civil Register (CPR) number; this was used to compare data between registers. The LPR completeness was estimated by the proportion of cases from the DMSR that could be retrieved from the LPR. The LPR validity was estimated by the proportion of cases, listed in the LPR and DMSR, in whom the MS diagnosis could be confirmed as definite/probable/possible by the DMSR. RESULTS: We found that 86.9% of those who were DMSR listed with an approved MS diagnosis were also listed in the LPR with a MS diagnosis. The diagnosis was valid in 96.3% of patients listed in the LPR when compared against the DMSR. CONCLUSIONS: The low completeness reduces the usefulness of the LPR in epidemiological MS research, in particular incidence studies. The study also found that the completeness of the LPR could be increased to 92.8% by including LPR records from other departments in addition, but this reduced the validity of the LPR to 95.1%. However, these results cannot uncritically be applied to registration of other diseases in the LPR.

Social consequences of multiple sclerosis: clinical and demographic predictors - a historical prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Time to disability pension is one of the endpoints to be used to determine the prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) in prospective studies. OBJECTIVE: To assess the time to cessation of work and receiving disability pension in MS, and how it may depend on gender, type of work and age and symptom at onset. METHOD: A total of 2240 Danes with onset of definite/probable MS 1980-1989, identified from the Danish MS-Registry, were included. Information on social endpoints was retrieved from Statistics Denmark. Cox regression analyses were used with onset as starting point. RESULTS: Afferent onset symptoms [hazard ratio (HR 0.57)] and non-physical type of work (HR 0.70) were favourable prognostic factors compared with high age at onset, physical work and efferent symptoms at onset. The mean time to disability pension was 13 years for patients with afferent/brainstem onset symptom but 8.7 years for those with efferent onset symptoms (P < 0.0001). The effect of onset symptom was reduced and the effect of sex became significant when all covariates and age at onset were included in multivariate Cox regression. CONCLUSIONS: Onset age, type of onset symptom and work are robust predictors of disability pension in MS. Disability pension proves to be a reliable milestone in estimation of the prognosis of MS.

Identification of new sensitive biomarkers for the in vivo response to interferon-beta treatment in multiple sclerosis using DNA-array evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: Neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) occur in a proportion of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients treated with interferon (IFN)-beta. NAbs impair the effect of treatment. The biological effect of IFN-beta can be measured as the induction of the myxovirus resistance protein A (MxA) molecule. However, other markers could be more sensitive for evaluating the response to IFN-beta. We used DNA array analysis to identify genes that are strongly induced in blood cells by IFN-beta, and measured their expression in MS patients with different NAb levels. METHODS: Gene expression was studied on DNA arrays in untreated patients, in NAb negative patients, and in MS patients with varying NAb levels 9-12 h and 36-48 h after IFN-beta administration. The expression of selected genes was measured by real-time PCR. NAb levels were assessed by a cytopathic effect assay. RESULTS: Several hundred genes were induced 9-12 h after an injection of IFN-beta. The molecules CXCL10, CCL2 and IFI27 were among the most strongly induced. Gene induction was generally much less pronounced after 36-48 h, but IFI27 remained strongly induced. The strong induction of these molecules and MxA was confirmed by real-time PCR. Induction of MxA, CCL2, CXCL10 and IFI27 was reduced in patients with low NAb levels and lost in patients with intermediate/high NAb levels. CONCLUSION: We identify IFI27, CCL2 and CXCL10 as sensitive biomarkers for the response to IFN-beta. The expression of these markers adequately reflects bioactivity of IFN-ss as documented by the decreased induction in low NAb-positive patients and the lost induction in patients with moderate/high NAb levels.

Efficacy of natalizumab in multiple sclerosis patients with high disease activity: a Danish nationwide study.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies of natalizumab (Tysabri) in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) patients have included patients with moderate disease activity. We studied a patient population with high disease activity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from 234 consecutive, natalizumab-treated patients, followed for at least 3 months. Three groups of patients were eligible for natalizumab therapy: patients with two or more documented relapses or sustained increase of 2 EDSS points on disease modifying therapy (DMT) in the previous year; patients switching from mitoxantrone; and patients with very active MS as de novo therapy. RESULTS: During a median observation time of 11.3 months (range 3.0-21.5) the annualized relapse rate decreased to 0.68 from a pre-treatment rate of 2.53 (73% reduction). We assessed the annualized relapse rate in three subgroups: (i) 0.83 in 14 (6.0%) de novo treated patients; (ii) 0.71 in 175 (74.8%) patients with >or=2 relapses or sustained increase in EDSS of >or=2 points on a first-line DMT; and (iii) 0.56 in 45 (19.2%) patients switching from mitoxantrone. Nine anaphylactoid reactions, two severe, were reported. Out of 215 patients 7 (3%) were persistently positive for antibodies to natalizumab. CONCLUSIONS: Tysabri appears to be effective in MS patients with high disease activity, but the relapse rate was higher than in the pivotal study after the first treatment year. This is likely to reflect differences in disease activity before the initiation of natalizumab treatment.

The clinical effect of neutralizing antibodies against interferon-beta is independent of the type of interferon-beta used for patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the clinical effect of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against interferon-beta (IFN beta) depends on the type of IFNbeta (1a or 1b) used for treatment of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). INTRODUCTION: NAbs against IFN beta-1b appear faster and may be more evenly distributed on IgG subclasses, whereas NAbs against IFN beta-1a develop more slowly and may be devoid of IgG3. This might cause different clinical responses to NAbs. DESIGN/PATIENTS: All Danish MS-patients who had started first-time treatment with IFNbeta-1a 22 microg s.c tiw (Rebif22) or IFN beta-1b 250 microg s.c. qod (Betaferon) before January 1st 2003 were included. Relapses were recorded at bi-annual visit. METHODS: We measured NAbs every 12 months using a clinically validated cytopathic effect assay. A blood sample with a neutralizing capacity of 20% or more was considered as NAb-positive. We used a mixed logistic regression analysis in which NAb-status (three levels), IFN beta-preparation, and time since treatment started were included as explanatory variables, and relapse rate as response variable. RESULTS: In 1,309 patients, who were observed for 21,958 months, 32.3% were classified as NAb-positive. The odds-ratio (OR) for relapses in NAb-positive months compared with NAb-negative months was 1.25; P = 0.02. The risk of relapses was higher with Betaferon than with Rebif22 (OR 1.26; P < 0.01). The effect of NAb-level on relapses was independent of whether the patients were treated with Betaferon or Rebif22 (P = 0.89) and of time (P = 0.80). CONCLUSION: NAbs caused by IFNbeta-1a s.c. do not differ from NAbs caused by IFNbeta-1b in their detrimental clinical effect.

Effects of infectious mononucleosis and HLA-DRB1*15 in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Both human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1*15 and Epstein-Barr virus infection presenting as infectious mononucleosis (IM) are recognized as risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS). However, their combined effect and possible interaction on MS risk is not known. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between HLA-DRB1*15 and risk of MS in persons with and without IM. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of DRB1*15 in MS patients with (n = 76) and without (n = 1,836) IM with the corresponding distributions in blood donors with (n = 62) and without (n = 484) IM histories. This allowed us to estimate the relative risk of MS associated with DRB1*15 in the presence and absence, respectively, of previous IM. We then estimated the interaction between DRB1*15 and IM as the ratio of the two individual odds ratios. RESULTS: In IM-naïve individuals, DRB1*15 carried a 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-3.0) increased MS risk. In contrast, among persons with IM history, DRB1*15 was associated with a 7.0-fold (95% CI, 3.3-15.4) increased MS risk. Thus, the MS risk conferred by HLA-DRB1*15 was 2.9 (95% CI, 1.3-6.5)-fold stronger in the presence than in the absence of IM. Combined with previous results, this result indicates that DRB1*15-positive persons with a history of IM may be at a 10.0-fold (95% CI, 6.0-17.9) increased risk of MS compared with persons who are DRB1*15 and IM-naïve. CONCLUSION: DRB1*15 and IM may act in synergy causing MS.

Head injury is not a risk factor for multiple sclerosis: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The idea of physical trauma being involved in the causation of multiple sclerosis (MS) had been discussed since the earliest description of the illness. Despite the ongoing debate, the proposed association between physical and especially head trauma and MS failed to be proved or to be refuted conclusively. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether head trauma is associated with an increased risk of developing MS. METHOD: A cohort of 150,868 subjects, 95,111 men, and 55,757 women registered in the National Danish Patient Registry with hospital admission for cerebral concussion, contusion, or skull fracture between 1977 and 1992, aged under 55, was selected. This trauma cohort was linked with the Danish MS Registry and followed up to the end of 1999 to retrieve subjects who had onset of MS after the year of the head trauma. We calculated the expected number of subjects, who, under a null-hypothesis, would subsequently develop MS, by using population age-, year-, and sex-specific MS-incidence densities from the Danish MS Registry. RESULTS: For men and women combined, the observed to expected number of MS cases (possible cases included) with onset after the head injury was 182/193.6 (standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 0.94; 95% CI, 0.81-1.09) and for possible MS excluded, 171/164.7 (SIR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.89-1.21). In an analysis of a sub-cohort of 16,425 subjects with severe trauma (contusion, traumatic cerebral hemorrhage, and base or skull fracture), the observed to expected numbers, including possible MS, were 15/15.3 (SIR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.55-1.62) and with possible MS excluded, 13/12.9 (SIR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.53-1.73). As for the total group and for any of the subgroups and for men and women separately, none of the SIRs differed statistically significantly from unity. Neither were there any trends, which could be missed by type II errors. CONCLUSION: Head injury of any severity does not affect the risk of acquiring MS later in life.