Prevalence of Adolescents Meeting Criteria for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The American Academy of Pediatrics endorses metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) as a safe and effective treatment of severe obesity in children with class 3 obesity or with class 2 obesity and qualifying comorbidities. The study objective was to determine eligibility and characteristics of adolescents who qualify for MBS based on American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analyzed electronic health record data of 603 051 adolescents aged 13 to 17 years between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2021. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria were used to define obesity classes 2 and 3. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the factors associated with meeting MBS eligibility criteria. RESULTS: Of the 603 041 adolescents evaluated, 22.2% had obesity (12.9% class 1, 5.4% class 2, and 3.9% class 3). The most frequently diagnosed comorbid conditions were gastroesophageal reflux disease (3.2%), hypertension (0.5%), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (0.5%). Among adolescents with class 2 obesity, 9.1% had 1 or more comorbidities qualifying for MBS, and 4.4% of all adolescents met the eligibility criteria for MBS. In multivariable modeling, males, Black and Hispanic adolescents, and those living in more deprived neighborhoods were more likely to meet MBS eligibility criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 1 in 23 adolescents met the eligibility criteria for MBS. Demographic and social determinants were associated with a higher risk for meeting these criteria. The study suggests that the health care system may face challenges in accommodating the demand for MBS among eligible adolescents.

Trends in firearm injury in a southern California health care system from 2010 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Firearm injury is a significant public health concern in the United States. METHODS: Data on fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries were obtained from a cohort of N = 7,473,650 members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated healthcare system between 2010 and 2020. Age-adjusted rates of combined fatal and nonfatal firearm injury per 100,000 members were calculated by year, with the 2010 US census as the reference population. Trends were evaluated using Poisson or negative binomial regression. RESULTS: There was an increasing trend in overall firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system (p < .0001), primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries (p < .0001). Self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time (p = .01). Injuries among youth showed no significant change. CONCLUSION: There was an increasing trend in firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system, primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries; however, self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time. Injuries among youth showed no significant change.

Research data warehouse: using electronic health records to conduct population-based observational studies.

Background: Electronic health records and many legacy systems contain rich longitudinal data that can be used for research; however, they typically are not readily available. Materials and methods: At Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a research data warehouse (RDW) has been developed and maintained since the late 1990s and widely extended in 2006, aggregating and standardizing data collected from internal and a few external sources. This article provides a high-level overview of the RDW and discusses challenges common to data warehouses or repositories for research use. To demonstrate the application of the data, we report the volume, patient characteristics, and age-adjusted prevalence of selected medical conditions and utilization rates of selected medical procedures. Results: A total of 105 million person-years of health plan enrollment was recorded in the RDW between 1981 and 2018, with most healthcare utilization data available since early or middle 1990s. Among active enrollees on December 31, 2018, 15% were ≥65 years of age, 33.9% were non-Hispanic white, 43.3% Hispanic, 11.0% Asian, and 8.4% African American, and 34.4% of children (2-17 years old) and 72.1% of adults (≥18 years old) were overweight or obese. The age-adjusted prevalence of asthma, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesteremia, and hypertension increased between 2001 and 2018. Hospitalization and Emergency Department (ED) visit rates appeared lower, and office visit rates seemed higher at KPSC compared to the reported US averages. Discussion and conclusion: Although the RDW is unique to KPSC, its methodologies and experience may provide useful insights for researchers of other healthcare systems worldwide in the era of big data analysis.

Higher body mass index after intrapartum antibiotic exposure in children persists over 10-years.

Exposure to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis to reduce perinatal group B streptococcal disease was associated with increased childhood body mass index (BMI) persisting to age 10 years compared to no exposure (Δ BMI at 10 years: vaginal delivery 0.14 kg/m2 , caesarean 0.40 kg/m2 ).

Association of High Normal Body Weight in Youths With Risk of Hypertension.

Importance: Ample evidence links obesity to hypertension in youths. However, the association of high normal body mass index (BMI) with obesity and the interaction with different weight trajectories are not well understood. Objective: To examine the hypertension risk associated with high normal BMI for age and different weight trajectories in youths. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study assessed 801 019 youths aged 3 to 17 years in an integrated health care system in Southern California from January 1, 2008, to February 28, 2015, with a maximum follow-up of 5 years from January 1, 2008, to February 28, 2020. Data analysis was performed from 2018 to 2022. Exposures: Youths were compared by first available (baseline) sex-specific BMI for age and change in the distance to the median BMI for age during the 5-year follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazards regression models with age as a time scale to assess hypertension risk (based on 2017 Blood Pressure Guidelines by the American Academy of Pediatrics from 3 consecutive independent visits), adjusted for sex, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline year, and birth year. Results: A total of 801 019 youths (mean [SD] age, 9.4 [4.6] years; 409 167 [51.1%] female]; 59 399 [7.4%] Asian and Pacific Islanders, 65 712 [8.2%] Black, and 427 492 [53.4%] Hispanic) were studied. Compared with youths with a baseline BMI for age in the 40th to 59th percentiles, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for hypertension within a maximum of 5 years was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.20-1.33) for youths between the 60th and 84th percentiles if they maintained their BMI for age. With every 1-unit annual increase in the distance to the median BMI for age, the aHR increased by 1.04 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05). The aHR was 4.94 (95% CI, 4.72-5.18) in youths with a baseline BMI for age in the 97th percentile or higher who maintained their body weight. Weight gain increased the risk associated with baseline BMI for age in the 97th percentile or higher with an aHR of 1.04 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05) per 1-unit annual increase in the distance to the median BMI for age. The risk associated with weight change was higher in youths living with low to high normal weight and overweight than in youths living with severe obesity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of youths, high normal body weight above the 60th percentile of BMI for age was associated with increased risk of hypertension. Weight gain was associated with further increases in hypertension risk. Further research is needed to evaluate the wide range of body weight considered normal in youths and the health risks associated with high normal weight.

Disparities in weight changes during the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown in youths.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates whether changes in weight among school-aged youth in California due to the COVID-19 lockdown vary by social constructs of race/ethnicity and associated social factors. METHODS: Including 160,472 youth aged 5 to 17 years enrolled at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, mixed effects models stratified by age group were fitted to estimate changes in distance from the median BMI-for-age from March 2020 to January 2021 (lockdown) compared with the same period before the pandemic. RESULTS: Excess pandemic weight gain was higher among Black and Hispanic youth aged 5 to 17 years than among White and Asian youth; this difference was most pronounced in those aged 5 to 11 years. In youth aged 5 to 11 years, the distance from the median BMI-for-age increased by 1.72 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.61-1.84) in Hispanic and 1.70 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.47-1.94) in Black youth during the lockdown compared with 1.16 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.02-1.29) in non-Hispanic White youth. The excess weight gain was also higher in youth with fewer neighborhood parks and those with state-subsidized health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown led to a gain of excess body weight, particularly for Black and Hispanic youth; this weight gain varied by social factors associated with race and ethnicity.

Factors Associated With Firearm Injury Among Pediatric Members of a Large Integrated Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Few studies have tested multiple socio-ecological risk factors assocated with firearm injury among pediatric populations and distinguished self-inflicted from non-self-inflicted injury. To address this gap, the current study examined demographic, individual psychosocial, and neighborhood variables as risk factors for firearm injury among a large cohort of children and adolescents. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. Data were obtained from the electronic health records of a large integrated healthcare system. The cohort included children <18 years with at least one clinical encounter between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. Poisson regression was used to examine demographic (age, gender, race and ethnicity, Medicaid status), psychosocial (depression, substance use disorder, medical comorbidities), and neighborhood education variables as potential risk factors for non-self-inflicted and self-inflicted firearm injuries. RESULTS: For non-self-inflicted injury, the highest relative risk was found for children age 12-17 years old compared to 0-5 year olds (RR = 37.57); other risk factors included male gender, Black and Hispanic race and ethnicity (compared to White race), being a Medicaid recipient, lower neighborhood education, and substance use disorder diagnosis. For self-inflicted injury, only age 12-17 years old and male gender were associated with increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: These results reinforce the established higher risk for firearm injury among adolescent males, highlight differences between self-inflicted and non-self-inflicted injuries, and the need to consider demographic, psychosocial, and neighborhood variables as risk factors to inform interventions aimed to reduce firearm injuries among children and adolescents.

Sustainability of weight loss from a family-centered pediatric weight management program integrated in primary care.

BACKGROUND: A 6-month pediatric weight loss program showed modest success, but the sustainability of this success after 12 months was unclear. The present study aims tomeasure the medium-term effectiveness of family-based weight management in pediatric primary care to reduce body weight in children living with obesity. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, children ages 3 to 17 years with obesity in Kaiser Permanente Orange County, California, who enrolled in a weight management program between April 2014 and December 2018 (FB-WMG, n = 341) were compared to children referred but not enrolled (Ref-CG, n = 317) and controls matched by sex, age, zip code and BMI (Area-CG, n = 801). The relative distance from the median BMI-for-age at months 0, 6, and 12 were expressed as difference-in-differences (DID) using multivariable linear regressions with robust standard error. RESULTS: The baseline BMI-for-age was 98.6 (SD 1.08) percentile in FB-WMG, 98.2 (SD 1.22) percentile in Ref-CG, and 98.6 (1.13 in Area-CG). FB-WMG had a median of 3 visits (P25 1 visit, P75 5 visits) in the first 6 months. Despite a more considerable decrease in the relative distance to the median BMI-for-age in FB-WMG children with 3+ visits after 6 months, the success obtained was not sustained at 12 months (DID FB-WMG vs Area-CG -0.34, 95% CI - 3.00 to 2.33%, FB-WMG vs Ref-CG -0.39, 95% CI - 3.14 to 2.35%). At 12 months, there was no statistical significant difference between the three groups (FB-WWG, Ref-CG, Area-CG). CONCLUSIONS: The initial success in weight management was not sustained in the absence of continued support for healthy lifestyle changes. Based on current evidence, continued support is necessary to maintain and promote success beyond a brief 6 month intervention. Long-term pediatric weight management programs are needed to promote continuing progress.

Self-Reported Physical Activity and Asthma Risk in Children.

BACKGROUND: Increased physical activity (PA) may protect against asthma but PA can trigger asthma symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) assessed during routine care visits and incident asthma. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort, 542,486 children between 2 and 17 years from 2010 to 2017 were included who had an MVPA assessment (exercise vital sign) during routine care visits. The association of MVPA and asthma was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models as a function of age, with MVPA and body mass index (BMI) being time-varying factors, adjusted for race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and air pollution. RESULTS: The mean MVPA was 5.4 (standard deviation: 4.4) hours/week. Crude asthma incidence density rate (IDR) was highest in children with <1 hour/week of MVPA (IDR: 9.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.79, 9.36) and lowest in children engaging in 4 to 7 hours/week of MVPA (IDR: 6.55, 95% CI: 6.33, 6.77). In adjusted models, an increase in MVPA was associated with lower asthma risk in children reporting 0 hour/week of MVPA (hazard ratio: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.973, 0.990). In children with ≥8 hours/week of MVPA, an increase in MVPA was associated with higher asthma risk (1.005, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.009). There was no significant BMI by MVPA interaction. CONCLUSION: Increasing MVPA in children with low activity levels is associated with lower asthma risk; children reporting high levels of activity may experience greater asthma risk as their activity levels increase further. Understanding the role of PA in the development of asthma and assessing MVPA during routine care visits in children may help to develop targeted interventions and guide asthma management.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Parent Activation: Implications for Developing Interventions Addressing Early Childhood Obesity.

OBJECTIVE: Examine racial/ethnic differences in parent activation and associations with child obesity risk behaviors in low-income families. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey study of 300 low-income Black, Latinx, and White parents of patients aged 2 to 5 years receiving primary care within 2 health care systems (Systems 1 & 2). In-person and phone surveys were conducted. Parent activation, defined as parents' knowledge, confidence, and willingness to act concerning their child's health, was measured using the standardized 13-item Parent Patient Activation Measure (P-PAM). Differences in parent activation by race/ethnicity were assessed using analysis of variance. Multivariate regression analyses were used to test associations between parent activation and child obesity risk behaviors. RESULTS: In pooled unadjusted analyses, Latinx parents had significantly lower activation compared to Black parents (P = .023), but these differences were no longer statistically significant after adjusting for other sociodemographic characteristics (P = .06). Higher activation was associated with slightly greater odds of consuming ≥ 5 daily servings of fruits and vegetables for System 2 only (odds ratio: 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.07). Associations between parental activation and child screen time or physical activity were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight potential measurement limitations of the P-PAM including the inability of the measure to capture barriers to health system navigation and cultural and linguistic considerations. Further attention to the nuanced interplay between parental activation and contextual and sociodemographic risk factors (eg, food availability, immigrant status, economic opportunity, language proficiency) should be considered in the development of early childhood obesity interventions in primary care settings.

A Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) study of medication and CBT sequencing in the treatment of pediatric anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of a child who has an anxiety disorder usually begins with the question of which treatment to start first, medication or psychotherapy. Both have strong empirical support, but few studies have compared their effectiveness head-to-head, and none has investigated what to do if the treatment tried first isn't working well-whether to optimize the treatment already begun or to add the other treatment. METHODS: This is a single-blind Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) of 24 weeks duration with two levels of randomization, one in each of two 12-week stages. In Stage 1, children will be randomized to fluoxetine or Coping Cat Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). In Stage 2, remitters will continue maintenance-level therapy with the single-modality treatment received in Stage 1. Non-remitters during the first 12 weeks of treatment will be randomized to either [1] optimization of their Stage 1 treatment, or [2] optimization of Stage 1 treatment and addition of the other intervention. After the 24-week trial, we will follow participants during open, naturalistic treatment to assess the durability of study treatment effects. Patients, 8-17 years of age who are diagnosed with an anxiety disorder, will be recruited and treated within 9 large clinical sites throughout greater Los Angeles. They will be predominantly underserved, ethnic minorities. The primary outcome measure will be the self-report score on the 41-item youth SCARED (Screen for Child Anxiety Related Disorders). An intent-to-treat analysis will compare youth randomized to fluoxetine first versus those randomized to CBT first ("Main Effect 1"). Then, among Stage 1 non-remitters, we will compare non-remitters randomized to optimization of their Stage 1 monotherapy versus non-remitters randomized to combination treatment ("Main Effect 2"). The interaction of these main effects will assess whether one of the 4 treatment sequences (CBT➔CBT; CBT➔med; med➔med; med➔CBT) in non-remitters is significantly better or worse than predicted from main effects alone. DISCUSSION: Findings from this SMART study will identify treatment sequences that optimize outcomes in ethnically diverse pediatric patients from underserved low- and middle-income households who have anxiety disorders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This protocol, version 1.0, was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on February 17, 2021 with Identifier: NCT04760275 .

Intrapartum group B Streptococcal prophylaxis and childhood weight gain.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the difference in rate of weight gain from birth to 5 years based on exposure to maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of 13 804 infants. SETTING: Two perinatal centres and a primary paediatric care network in Philadelphia. PARTICIPANTS: Term infants born 2007-2012, followed longitudinally from birth to 5 years of age. EXPOSURES: GBS IAP defined as penicillin, ampicillin, cefazolin, clindamycin or vancomycin administered ≥4 hours prior to delivery to the mother. Reference infants were defined as born to mothers without (vaginal delivery) or with other (caesarean delivery) intrapartum antibiotic exposure. OUTCOMES: Difference in rate of weight change from birth to 5 years was assessed using longitudinal rate regression. Analysis was a priori stratified by delivery mode and adjusted for relevant covariates. RESULTS: GBS IAP was administered to mothers of 2444/13 804 (17.7%) children. GBS IAP-exposed children had a significantly elevated rate of weight gain in the first 5 years among vaginally-born (adjusted rate difference 1.44% (95% CI 0.3% to 2.6%)) and caesarean-born (3.52% (95% CI 1.9% to 5.2%)) children. At 5 years, the rate differences equated to an additional 0.24 kg among vaginally-born children and 0.60 kg among caesarean-born children. CONCLUSION: GBS-specific IAP was associated with a modest increase in rate of early childhood weight gain. GBS IAP is an effective intervention to prevent perinatal GBS disease-associated morbidity and mortality. However, these findings highlight the need to better understand effects of intrapartum antibiotic exposure on childhood growth and support efforts to develop alternate prevention strategies.

Using Computational Methods to Improve Integrated Disease Management for Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Protocol for a Secondary Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) impose a heavy burden on health care. Approximately one-fourth of patients with asthma and patients with COPD are prone to exacerbations, which can be greatly reduced by preventive care via integrated disease management that has a limited service capacity. To do this well, a predictive model for proneness to exacerbation is required, but no such model exists. It would be suboptimal to build such models using the current model building approach for asthma and COPD, which has 2 gaps due to rarely factoring in temporal features showing early health changes and general directions. First, existing models for other asthma and COPD outcomes rarely use more advanced temporal features, such as the slope of the number of days to albuterol refill, and are inaccurate. Second, existing models seldom show the reason a patient is deemed high risk and the potential interventions to reduce the risk, making already occupied clinicians expend more time on chart review and overlook suitable interventions. Regular automatic explanation methods cannot deal with temporal data and address this issue well. OBJECTIVE: To enable more patients with asthma and patients with COPD to obtain suitable and timely care to avoid exacerbations, we aim to implement comprehensible computational methods to accurately predict proneness to exacerbation and recommend customized interventions. METHODS: We will use temporal features to accurately predict proneness to exacerbation, automatically find modifiable temporal risk factors for every high-risk patient, and assess the impact of actionable warnings on clinicians' decisions to use integrated disease management to prevent proneness to exacerbation. RESULTS: We have obtained most of the clinical and administrative data of patients with asthma from 3 prominent American health care systems. We are retrieving other clinical and administrative data, mostly of patients with COPD, needed for the study. We intend to complete the study in 6 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results will help make asthma and COPD care more proactive, effective, and efficient, improving outcomes and saving resources. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/27065.

Generalizability of an Automatic Explanation Method for Machine Learning Prediction Results on Asthma-Related Hospital Visits in Patients With Asthma: Quantitative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Asthma exerts a substantial burden on patients and health care systems. To facilitate preventive care for asthma management and improve patient outcomes, we recently developed two machine learning models, one on Intermountain Healthcare data and the other on Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) data, to forecast asthma-related hospital visits, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations, in the succeeding 12 months among patients with asthma. As is typical for machine learning approaches, these two models do not explain their forecasting results. To address the interpretability issue of black-box models, we designed an automatic method to offer rule format explanations for the forecasting results of any machine learning model on imbalanced tabular data and to suggest customized interventions with no accuracy loss. Our method worked well for explaining the forecasting results of our Intermountain Healthcare model, but its generalizability to other health care systems remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the generalizability of our automatic explanation method to KPSC for forecasting asthma-related hospital visits. METHODS: Through a secondary analysis of 987,506 data instances from 2012 to 2017 at KPSC, we used our method to explain the forecasting results of our KPSC model and to suggest customized interventions. The patient cohort covered a random sample of 70% of patients with asthma who had a KPSC health plan for any period between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: Our method explained the forecasting results for 97.57% (2204/2259) of the patients with asthma who were correctly forecasted to undergo asthma-related hospital visits in the succeeding 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: For forecasting asthma-related hospital visits, our automatic explanation method exhibited an acceptable generalizability to KPSC. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/resprot.5039.

Intrapartum Group B Streptococcal Prophylaxis and Childhood Allergic Disorders.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if maternal intrapartum group B Streptococcus (GBS) antibiotic prophylaxis is associated with increased risk of childhood asthma, eczema, food allergy, or allergic rhinitis. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 14 046 children. GBS prophylaxis was defined as administration of intravenous penicillin, ampicillin, cefazolin, clindamycin, or vancomycin to the mother, ≥4 hours before delivery. Composite primary outcome was asthma, eczema, or food allergy diagnosis within 5 years of age, identified by diagnosis codes and appropriate medication prescription. Allergic rhinitis was defined by using diagnostic codes only and analyzed as a separate outcome. Analysis was a priori stratified by delivery mode and conducted by using Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for multiple confounders and covariates. Secondary analyses, restricted to children retained in cohort at 5 years' age, were conducted by using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: GBS prophylaxis was not associated with increased incidence of composite outcome among infants delivered vaginally (hazard ratio: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-1.33) or by cesarean delivery (hazard ratio: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.88-1.32). At 5 years of age, among 10 404 children retained in the study, GBS prophylaxis was not associated with the composite outcome in vaginal (odds ratio: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.96-1.52) or cesarean delivery (odds ratio: 1.17, 95% CI: 0.88-1.56) cohorts. Outcomes of asthma, eczema, food allergy, separately, and allergic rhinitis were also not associated with GBS prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Intrapartum GBS prophylaxis was not associated with subsequent diagnosis of asthma, eczema, food allergy, or allergic rhinitis in the first 5 years of age.

Effectiveness of a Family-Centered Pediatric Weight Management Program Integrated in Primary Care.

INTRODUCTION: The evidence supporting the effectiveness of weight loss interventions with low to medium intensity is limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of a family-based weight management intervention in pediatric primary care to reduce body weight in children. METHODS: Electronic medical record data of pediatric patients in Kaiser Permanente Orange County, California, who were enrolled in weight management between April 2014 and December 2018 (family-based behavior-changing weight management [FB-WMG], n = 162) and compared with a control group (CG) of patients who were referred but did not enroll (Ref-CG, n = 203) and an area-matched CG also matched by sex, age, zip code, and body mass index (BMI) (Area-CG, n = 287). BMI was measured at the first visit (or index date) and after 6 months. RESULTS: Children enrolled in the FB-WMG had 5 (interquartile range = 3-6) sessions over the first 6 months of the program. Most FB-WMG patients (69.1%) reduced or maintained BMI over 6 months, compared with 45.8% of Ref-CG (p < 0.001) and 57.8% of Area-CG (p = 0.02). In girls 3 to 12 years of age, 75% of participants reduced or maintained BMI, compared with 42% of Ref-CG (p < 0.001) and 59.8% of Area-CG (p = 0.07). On average, the difference in BMI change over the 6-month follow-up period was -0.85 kg/m² (95% confidence interval = -1.25 to -0.46 kg/m²) compared with Ref-CG and -0.28 kg/m² (95% confidence interval = -0.63 to 0.08 kg/m²) and Area-CG. CONCLUSION: Low- to moderate-intensity family-based weight management intervention in primary care can be successful after only 6 months compared with a referred control group.

Intrapartum Antibiotic Exposure and Body Mass Index in Children.

BACKGROUND: Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) reduces a newborn's risk of group B streptococcal infection (GBS) but may lead to an increased childhood body mass index (BMI). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of infants (n = 223 431) born 2007-2015 in an integrated healthcare system. For vaginal delivery, we compared children exposed to GBS-IAP and to any other type or duration of intrapartum antibiotics to no antibiotic exposure. For cesarean delivery, we compared children exposed to GBS-IAP to those exposed to all other intrapartum antibiotics, including surgical prophylaxis. BMI over 5 years was compared using nonlinear multivariate models with B-spline functions, stratified by delivery mode and adjusted for demographics, maternal factors, breastfeeding, and childhood antibiotic exposure. RESULTS: In vaginal deliveries, GBS-IAP was associated with higher BMI from 0.5 to 5.0 years of age compared to no antibiotics (P < .0001 for all time points, ΔBMI at age 5 years 0.12 kg/m2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .07-.16 kg/m2). Other antibiotics were associated with higher BMI from 0.3 to 5.0 years of age. In cesarean deliveries, GBS-IAP was associated with increased BMI from 0.7 years to 5.0 years of age (P < .05 for 0.7-0.8 years, P < .0001 for all other time points) compared to other antibiotics (ΔBMI at age 5 years 0.24 kg/m2, 95% CI: .14-.34 kg/m2). Breastfeeding did not modify these associations. CONCLUSIONS: GBS-IAP was associated with a small but sustained increase in BMI starting at very early age. This association highlights the need to better understand the effects of perinatal antibiotic exposure on childhood health.

Developing a Predictive Model for Asthma-Related Hospital Encounters in Patients With Asthma in a Large, Integrated Health Care System: Secondary Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Asthma causes numerous hospital encounters annually, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations. To improve patient outcomes and reduce the number of these encounters, predictive models are widely used to prospectively pinpoint high-risk patients with asthma for preventive care via care management. However, previous models do not have adequate accuracy to achieve this goal well. Adopting the modeling guideline for checking extensive candidate features, we recently constructed a machine learning model on Intermountain Healthcare data to predict asthma-related hospital encounters in patients with asthma. Although this model is more accurate than the previous models, whether our modeling guideline is generalizable to other health care systems remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the generalizability of our modeling guideline to Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC). METHODS: The patient cohort included a random sample of 70.00% (397,858/568,369) of patients with asthma who were enrolled in a KPSC health plan for any duration between 2015 and 2018. We produced a machine learning model via a secondary analysis of 987,506 KPSC data instances from 2012 to 2017 and by checking 337 candidate features to project asthma-related hospital encounters in the following 12-month period in patients with asthma. RESULTS: Our model reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.820. When the cutoff point for binary classification was placed at the top 10.00% (20,474/204,744) of patients with asthma having the largest predicted risk, our model achieved an accuracy of 90.08% (184,435/204,744), a sensitivity of 51.90% (2259/4353), and a specificity of 90.91% (182,176/200,391). CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling guideline exhibited acceptable generalizability to KPSC and resulted in a model that is more accurate than those formerly built by others. After further enhancement, our model could be used to guide asthma care management. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/resprot.5039.

The Accuracy of Self-Reported Body Weight Is High but Dependent on Recent Weight Change and Negative Affect in Teenage Girls.

BACKGROUND: Research studies often rely on self-reported weight to calculate body mass index. The present study investigated how the accuracy of self-reported body weight in adolescent girls is affected by overweight/obesity, race/ethnicity, and mental health factors. METHODS: In a cohort of girls who participated in the Trial of Activity for Adolescent Girls at ages 11 and 17 (n = 588), self-reported and measured weight were compared, and linear regression models were fitted to model the over- or underreporting. The Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D) was used to calculate depressive symptom subscales for negative affect, anhedonia and somatic symptoms. RESULTS: Allowing 3% difference between self-reported and measured weight for the correct reporting of body weight, 59.2% of girls reported their weight correctly, 30.3% underreported (-5.8 ± 4.8 kg), and 10.5% overreported (4.3 ± 3.5 kg). The average difference between self-reported and measured body weight was -1.5 ± 4.3 kg (p < 0.001). Factors for misreporting body weight were overweight (ß ± SE - 2.60 ± 0.66%), obesity (ß ± SE - 2.41 ± 0.71%), weight change between ages 11 and 17 (ß ± SE - 0.35 ± 0.04% for each kg), height change between ages 11 and 17 (ß ± SE 0.29 ± 0.10% for each cm), and negative affect (ß ± SE - 0.18 ± 0.08% for each score unit). CONCLUSIONS: The difference between self-reported and measured body weight in adolescent girls is relatively small. However, the accuracy of self-reported body weight may be lower in girls with overweight or obesity, recent weight and height change, and higher negative affect.