ABSTRACT
The occurrence of arsenic in drinking water is an issue of considerable interest. In the case of Bangladesh, arsenic concentrations have been closely monitored since the early 1990s through an extensive sampling network. The focus of the present work is methodological. In particular, we propose the application of a holistochastic framework of human exposure to study lifetime population damage due to arsenic exposure across Bangladesh. The Bayesian Maximum Entropy theory is an important component of this framework, which possesses solid theoretical foundations and offers powerful tools to assimilate a variety of knowledge bases (physical, epidemiologic, toxicokinetic, demographic, etc.) and uncertainty sources (soft data, measurement errors, etc.). The holistochastic exposure approach leads to physically meaningful and informative spatial maps of arsenic distribution in Bangladesh drinking water. Global indicators of the adverse health effects on the population are generated, and valuable insight is gained by blending information from different scientific disciplines. The numerical results indicate an increased lifetime bladder cancer probability for the Bangladesh population due to arsenic. The health effect estimates obtained and the associated uncertainty assessments are valuable tools for a broad spectrum of end-users.
Subject(s)
Arsenic/toxicity , Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity , Arsenic/administration & dosage , Bangladesh , Bayes Theorem , Carcinogens, Environmental/administration & dosage , Carcinogens, Environmental/toxicity , Environmental Exposure , Humans , Linear Models , Nonlinear Dynamics , Public Health , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Stochastic Processes , Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/chemically induced , Water Pollutants, Chemical/administration & dosage , Water Supply/analysisABSTRACT
Exposure analysis and mapping of spatiotemporal pollutants in relation to their health effects are important challenges facing environmental health scientists and integrated assessment modellers. In this work, a methodological framework is discussed to study the impact of spatiotemporal ozone (O3) exposure distributions on the health of human populations. The framework, however, is very general and can be used to study various other pollutants. The spatiotemporal analysis starts with exposure distributions producing the input to pollutokinetic (or toxicokinetic) laws which are linked to effect models which, in turn, are integrated with relationships that describe how effects are distributed across populations. Important characteristics of the environmental health framework are holisticity and stochasticity. Holisticity emphasizes the functional relationships between composite space/time O3 maps, pollutokinetic models of burden on target organs and tissues, and health effects. These relationships offer a meaningful physical interpretation of the exposure and biological processes that affect human exposure. Stochasticity involves the rigorous representation of natural uncertainties and biological variations in terms of spatiotemporal random fields. The stochastic perspective introduces a deeper epistemological understanding in the development of improved models of spatiotemporal human exposure analysis and mapping. Also, it explicitly determines the knowledge bases available and develops logically plausible rules and standards for data processing and human exposure map construction. The proposed approach allows the horizontal integration among sciences related to the human exposure problem that leads to accurate and informative spatiotemporal maps of O3 exposure and effect distributions and an integrative analysis of the whole risk case. By processing a variety of knowledge bases, the spatiotemporal analysis can bring together several sciences which are all relevant to the aspect of human exposure reality that is examined.