Oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation at low stroke risk: a multicentre observational study.

AIMS: There is currently no consensus on whether atrial fibrillation (AF) patients at low risk for stroke (one non-sex-related CHA2DS2-VASc point) should be treated with an oral anticoagulant. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a multi-country cohort study in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Scotland. In total, 59 076 patients diagnosed with AF at low stroke risk were included. We assessed the rates of stroke or major bleeding during treatment with a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), or no treatment, using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) Cox regression. In untreated patients, the rate for ischaemic stroke was 0.70 per 100 person-years and the rate for a bleed was also 0.70 per 100 person-years. Comparing NOAC with no treatment, the stroke rate was lower [hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.94], and the rate for intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was not increased (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.54-1.30). Comparing VKA with no treatment, the rate for stroke tended to be lower (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.59-1.09), and the rate for ICH tended to be higher during VKA treatment (HR 1.37; 95% CI 0.88-2.14). Comparing NOAC with VKA treatment, the rate for stroke was similar (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.70-1.22), but the rate for ICH was lower during NOAC treatment (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94). CONCLUSION: These observational data suggest that NOAC treatment may be associated with a positive net clinical benefit compared with no treatment or VKA treatment in patients at low stroke risk, a question that can be tested through a randomized controlled trial.

Persistence and adherence to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation across five Western European countries.

AIMS: To assess persistence and adherence to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in five Western European healthcare settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a multi-country observational cohort study, including 559 445 AF patients initiating NOAC therapy from Stockholm (Sweden), Denmark, Scotland, Norway, and Germany between 2011 and 2018. Patients were followed from their first prescription until they switched to a vitamin K antagonist, emigrated, died, or the end of follow-up. We measured persistence and adherence over time and defined adequate adherence as medication possession rate ≥90% among persistent patients only. RESULTS: Overall, persistence declined to 82% after 1 year and to 63% after 5 years. When including restarters of NOAC treatment, 85% of the patients were treated with NOACs after 5 years. The proportion of patients with adequate adherence remained above 80% throughout follow-up. Persistence and adherence were similar between countries and was higher in patients starting treatment in later years. Both first year persistence and adherence were lower with dabigatran (persistence: 77%, adherence: 65%) compared with apixaban (86% and 75%) and rivaroxaban (83% and 75%) and were statistically lower after adjusting for patient characteristics. Adherence and persistence with dabigatran remained lower throughout follow-up. CONCLUSION: Persistence and adherence were high among NOAC users in five Western European healthcare settings and increased in later years. Dabigatran use was associated with slightly lower persistence and adherence compared with apixaban and rivaroxaban.

Greedy caliper propensity score matching can yield variable estimates of the treatment-outcome association-A simulation study.

PURPOSE: Greedy caliper propensity score (PS) matching is dependent on randomness, which can ultimately affect causal estimates. We sought to investigate the variation introduced by this randomness. METHODS: Based on a literature search to define the simulation parameters, we simulated 36 cohorts of different sizes, treatment prevalence, outcome prevalence, treatment-outcome-association. We performed 1:1 caliper and nearest neighbor (NN) caliper PS-matching and repeated this 1000 times in the same cohort, before calculating the treatment-outcome association. RESULTS: Repeating caliper and NN caliper matching in the same cohort yielded large variations in effect estimates, in all 36 scenarios, with both types of matching. The largest variation was found in smaller cohorts, where the odds ratio (OR) ranged from 0.53 to 10.00 (IQR of ORs: 1.11-1.67). The 95% confidence interval was not consistently overlapping a neutral association after repeating the matching with both algorithms. We confirmed these findings in a noninterventional example study. CONCLUSION: Caliper PS-matching can yield highly variable estimates of the treatment-outcome association if the analysis is repeated.

Association of preceding antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation patients with ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, or gastrointestinal bleed and mortality.

AIMS: To analyse 90-day mortality in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients after a stroke or a severe bleed and assess associations with the type of antithrombotic treatment at the event. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Stockholm Healthcare database, we selected 6017 patients with a known history of AF who were diagnosed with ischaemic stroke, 3006 with intracranial haemorrhage, and 4291 with a severe gastrointestinal bleed (GIB). The 90-day mortality rates were 25.1% after ischaemic stroke, 31.6% after intracranial haemorrhage, and 16.2% after severe GIB. We used Cox regression and propensity score-matched analyses to test the association between antithrombotic treatment at the event and 90-day mortality. After intracranial haemorrhage, there was a significantly higher mortality rate in warfarin compared to non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC)-treated patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.78]. After an ischaemic stroke and a severe GIB, patients receiving antiplatelets or no antithrombotic treatment had significantly higher mortality rates compared to patients on NOACs, but there was no difference comparing warfarin to NOACs (aHR 0.84, CI 0.63-1.12 after ischaemic stroke, aHR 0.91, CI 0.66-1.25 after severe GIB). Propensity score-matched analysis yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates were high in AF patients suffering from an ischaemic stroke, an intracranial haemorrhage, or a severe GIB. NOAC treatment was associated with a lower 90-day mortality after intracranial haemorrhage than warfarin.

Long-term persistence and adherence with non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and their associations with stroke risk.

AIMS: Studies on adherence and persistence with non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) treatment have relied on data from the early years of NOAC availability. We aimed to study long-term adherence and persistence with NOACs and their association with stroke risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Stockholm Healthcare database, we included 21 028 atrial fibrillation patients claiming a first NOAC prescription from July 2011 until October 2018, with more than 1000 patients having more than 5 years of follow-up (median: 2.0, interquartile range: 1.0-3.2). Persistence rates, defined as continuing to claim NOAC prescriptions within a 90-day gap, decreased to 70% at the end of follow-up. However, 85% of the patients were treated at the end of the study due to reinitiations. Adherence, calculated as medication possession rate (MPR) in 3 and 6-month intervals among persistent users, remained stable at 90%, with 75% of patients having an MPR >95% throughout the study period. Using a case-control design, we calculated associations of persistence and adherence with stroke risk, adjusting for potential confounders. The outcome was a composite of ischaemic or unspecified stroke and transient ischaemic attack. Non-persistence and poor adherence were both associated with increased stroke risk [non-persistence adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-2.82, 1% reduction MPR aOR: 1.03; CI: 1.01-1.05]. There was no association between non-persistence or poor adherence and the falsification endpoints; fractions and respiratory infections, indicating no 'healthy-adherer' effect. CONCLUSION: Persistence rates decreased slowly over time, but persistent patients had high adherence rates. Both non-persistence and poor adherence were associated with an increased stroke risk.

Concomitant Anticoagulant and Antidepressant Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation Patients and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding.

We aimed to quantify the effects of antidepressant (AD) use in oral anticoagulant (OAC)-treated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using the Stockholm Healthcare database, we analyzed AF patients initiated with an OAC. Outcomes were severe bleeds and strokes and were analyzed using Cox models. We included 17,210 patients claiming warfarin and 13,385 claiming a non-vitamin K OAC. The number of patients that claimed an AD during follow-up was 4,303. Concomitant OAC and AD use was associated with increased rates of severe bleeds (4.7 vs. 2.7 per 100 person-years) compared with OAC treatment alone (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.42, confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.80), but not significantly associated with increased stroke rates (3.5 vs. 2.1 per 100 person-years, aHR 1.23, CI: 0.93-1.62). No significant differences in risks were observed between different OAC classes or different AD classes. In conclusion, concomitant use of an OAC and an AD is associated with an increased bleeding risk.

Improved Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation After the Introduction of Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants.

Background and Purpose- The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of improved antithrombotic treatment in atrial fibrillation after the introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants on the incidence of stroke and bleeding in a real-life total population, including both primary and secondary care. Methods- All resident and alive patients with a recorded diagnosis for atrial fibrillation during the preceding 5 years in the Stockholm County Healthcare database (Vårdanalysdatabasen) were followed for clinical outcomes during 2012 (n=41 008) and 2017 (n=49 510). Results- Pharmacy claims for oral anticoagulants increased from 51.6% to 73.8% (78.7% among those with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2). Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant claims increased from 0.4% to 34.4%. Ischemic stroke incidence rates decreased from 2.01 per 100 person-years in 2012 to 1.17 in 2017 (incidence rate ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.52-0.65). The largest increases in oral anticoagulants use and decreases in ischemic strokes were seen in patients aged ≥80 years who had the highest risk of stroke and bleeding. The incidence rates for major bleeding (2.59) remained unchanged (incidence rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.92-1.09) even in those with a high bleeding risk. Poisson regression showed that 10% of the absolute ischemic stroke reduction was associated with increased oral anticoagulants treatment, whereas 27% was related to a generally decreased risk for all stroke. Conclusions- Increased oral anticoagulants use contributed to a marked reduction of ischemic strokes without increasing bleeding rates between 2012 and 2017. The largest stroke reduction was seen in elderly patients with the highest risks for stroke and bleeding. These findings strongly support the adoption of current guideline recommendations for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation in both primary and secondary care.