Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.

Epidemiological Investigation of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Humans and Livestock in Kenya, 2018.

On the last week of May of 2018, a community-based syndromic surveillance system detected mass abortions and deaths of young livestock in northeastern Kenya. Two weeks later, Rift Valley fever (RVF) was confirmed in humans presenting with febrile illness and hemorrhagic syndrome in the same region. A joint animal and human response team carried out an investigation to characterize the outbreak and identify drivers of disease transmission. Here, we describe the outbreak investigation and findings. A total of 106 human cases were identified in the months of May and June 2018: 92% (98) and 8% (8) of these cases occurring in the northern and western regions of Kenya, respectively. Seventy-six (72%) were probable cases, and 30 (28%) were laboratory confirmed by ELISA and/or PCR. Among the confirmed cases, the median age was 27.5 years (interquartile range = 20), and 60% (18) were males. Overall, the case fatality rate was 7% (n = 8). The majority of the confirmed cases, 19 (63%), reported contact with livestock during slaughter and consumption of meat from sick animals. All confirmed cases had fever, 40% (12) presented with hemorrhagic syndrome, and 23% (7) presented with jaundice. Forty-three livestock herds with at least one suspect and/or confirmed animal case were identified. Death of young animals was reported in 93% (40) and abortions in 84% (36) of livestock herds. The outbreak is indicative of the emergence potential of RVF in traditionally high- and low-risk areas and the risk posed by zoonosis to livestock keepers.

Detection of dengue virus serotypes 1, 2 and 3 in selected regions of Kenya: 2011-2014.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is associated with illness of varying severity in countries in the tropics and sub tropics. Dengue cases continue to be detected more frequently and its geographic range continues to expand. We report the largest documented laboratory confirmed circulation of dengue virus in parts of Kenya since 1982. METHODS: From September 2011 to December 2014, 868 samples from febrile patients were received from hospitals in Nairobi, northern and coastal Kenya. The immunoglobulin M enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (IgM ELISA) was used to test for the presence of IgM antibodies against dengue, yellow fever, West Nile and Zika. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) utilizing flavivirus family, yellow fever, West Nile, consensus and sero type dengue primers were used to detect acute arbovirus infections and determine the infecting serotypes. Representative samples of PCR positive samples for each of the three dengue serotypes detected were sequenced to confirm circulation of the various dengue serotypes. RESULTS: Forty percent (345/868) of the samples tested positive for dengue by either IgM ELISA (14.6 %) or by RT-PCR (25.1 %). Three dengue serotypes 1-3 (DENV1-3) were detected by serotype specific RT-PCR and sequencing with their numbers varying from year to year and by region. The overall predominant serotype detected from 2011-2014 was DENV1 accounting for 44 % (96/218) of all the serotypes detected, followed by DENV2 accounting for 38.5 % (84/218) and then DENV3 which accounted for 17.4 % (38/218). Yellow fever, West Nile and Zika was not detected in any of the samples tested. CONCLUSION: From 2011-2014 serotypes 1, 2 and 3 were detected in the Northern and Coastal parts of Kenya. This confirmed the occurrence of cases and active circulation of dengue in parts of Kenya. These results have documented three circulating serotypes and highlight the need for the establishment of active dengue surveillance to continuously detect cases, circulating serotypes, and determine dengue fever disease burden in the country and region.

Seroprevalence of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection on Lamu Island, Kenya, October 2004.

An outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) disease associated with high fever and severe protracted arthralgias was detected in Lamu, Kenya, peaking in July 2004. At least 1,300 cases were documented. We conducted a seroprevalence study to define the magnitude of transmission on Lamu Island. We conducted a systematic cross-sectional survey. We administered questionnaires and tested 288 sera from Lamu residents for IgM and IgG antibodies to CHIKV. Chikungunya virus infection (seropositivity) was defined as a person with IgG and/or IgM antibodies to CHIKV. IgM antibodies to CHIKV were detected in 18% (53/288) and IgG antibodies in 72% (206/288); IgM and/or IgG antibodies were present in 75% (215/288). The seroprevalence findings suggested that the outbreak was widespread, affecting 75% of the Lamu population; extrapolating the findings to the entire population, 13,500 (95% CI, 12,458-14328) were affected. Vector control strategies are needed to control the spread of this mosquito-borne infection.

Seroprevalence of Chikungunya virus infection on Grande Comore Island, union of the Comoros, 2005.

An outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) illness associated with high fever combined with prolonged and severe arthralgias occurred on Grande Comore Island from January through May 2005; 5,202 cases were reported. A seroprevalence study was conducted to define the extent of transmission on the island. We conducted a cross-sectional survey using a multistage sampling technique. A total of 481 households were sampled. In each household, one resident was selected randomly for interview and blood collection. We administered questionnaires and tested 331 sera for CHIKV-specific IgM and IgG antibodies by capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Infection with CHIKV infection (seropositivity) was defined as presence of IgG and/or IgM antibodies to CHIKV. A total of 331 (69%) of 481 survey participants consented to blood collection. Antibodies to CHIKV were detected in 63% of sera; IgM antibodies were found in 60% of specimens and IgG antibodies were detected in 27% of specimens. Extrapolation of the findings to the entire Grande Comore population suggested that nearly 215,000 people were infected with CHIKV during the outbreak. A total of 79% of the seropositive persons were hospitalized or stayed at home in bed for a mean of 6 days (range = 1-30 days); 52% missed work or school for a mean of 7 days (range = 1-40 days). The findings suggest that CHIKV was broadly transmitted during the outbreak with a high attack rate. Although not fatal during this outbreak, CHIKV infection caused significant morbidity and decreased economic productivity.