External validation and clinical utility assessment of PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model in young, systemic treatment-naïve women with node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The validity of the PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model is unclear for young patients without adjuvant systemic treatment. This study aimed to validate PREDICT and assess its clinical utility in young women with node-negative breast cancer who did not receive systemic treatment. METHODS: We selected all women from the Netherlands Cancer Registry who were diagnosed with node-negative breast cancer under age 40 between 1989 and 2000, a period when adjuvant systemic treatment was not standard practice for women with node-negative disease. We evaluated the calibration and discrimination of PREDICT using the observed/expected (O/E) mortality ratio, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. Additionally, we compared the potential clinical utility of PREDICT for selectively administering chemotherapy to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy using decision curve analysis at predefined thresholds. RESULTS: A total of 2264 women with a median age at diagnosis of 36 years were included. Of them, 71.2% had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors and 44.0% had grade 3 tumors. Median tumor size was 16 mm. PREDICT v2.2 underestimated 10-year all-cause mortality by 33% in all women (O/E ratio:1.33, 95%CI:1.22-1.43). Model discrimination was moderate overall (AUC10-year:0.65, 95%CI:0.62-0.68), and poor for women with ER-negative tumors (AUC10-year:0.56, 95%CI:0.51-0.62). Compared to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy, PREDICT only showed a slightly higher net benefit in women with ER-positive tumors, but not in women with ER-negative tumors. CONCLUSIONS: PREDICT yields unreliable predictions for young women with node-negative breast cancer. Further model updates are needed before PREDICT can be routinely used in this patient subset.

Prognostic Value of Stromal Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes in Young, Node-Negative, Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients Who Did Not Receive (neo)Adjuvant Systemic Therapy.

PURPOSE: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is considered aggressive, and therefore, virtually all young patients with TNBC receive (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy. Increased stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) have been associated with a favorable prognosis in TNBC. However, whether this association holds for patients who are node-negative (N0), young (< 40 years), and chemotherapy-naïve, and thus can be used for chemotherapy de-escalation strategies, is unknown. METHODS: We selected all patients with N0 TNBC diagnosed between 1989 and 2000 from a Dutch population-based registry. Patients were age < 40 years at diagnosis and had not received (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy, as was standard practice at the time. Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks were retrieved (PALGA: Dutch Pathology Registry), and a pathology review including sTILs was performed. Patients were categorized according to sTILs (< 30%, 30%-75%, and ≥ 75%). Multivariable Cox regression was performed for overall survival, with or without sTILs as a covariate. Cumulative incidence of distant metastasis or death was analyzed in a competing risk model, with second primary tumors as competing risk. RESULTS: sTILs were scored for 441 patients. High sTILs (≥ 75%; 21%) translated into an excellent prognosis with a 15-year cumulative incidence of a distant metastasis or death of only 2.1% (95% CI, 0 to 5.0), whereas low sTILs (< 30%; 52%) had an unfavorable prognosis with a 15-year cumulative incidence of a distant metastasis or death of 38.4% (32.1 to 44.6). In addition, every 10% increment of sTILs decreased the risk of death by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.87), which are an independent predictor adding prognostic information to standard clinicopathologic variables (χ2 = 46.7, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Chemotherapy-naïve, young patients with N0 TNBC with high sTILs (≥ 75%) have an excellent long-term prognosis. Therefore, sTILs should be considered for prospective clinical trials investigating (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy de-escalation strategies.

Expression of BNIP3 in invasive breast cancer: correlations with the hypoxic response and clinicopathological features.

BACKGROUND: Bcl-2/adenovirus E1B 19 kDa-interacting protein 3 (BNIP3) is a pro-apoptotic member of the Bcl-2 family induced under hypoxia. Low or absent expression has recently been described in human tumors, including gastrointestinal tumors, resulting in poor prognosis. Little is known about BNIP3 expression in invasive breast cancer. The aim of the present study was to investigate the expression of BNIP3 in invasive breast cancer at the mRNA and protein level in correlation with the hypoxic response and clinicopathological features. METHODS: In 40 cases of invasive breast cancer, BNIP3 mRNA in situ hybridization was performed on frozen sections with a digoxigenin labeled anti-BNIP3 probe. Paraffin embedded sections of the same specimens were used to determine protein expression of BNIP3, Hypoxia Inducible Factor 1 alpha (HIF-1alpha) and its downstream targets Glucose Transporter 1 (Glut-1) and Carbonic Anhydrase (CAIX) by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: BNIP3 mRNA was expressed in 16/40 (40%) of the cases and correlated with BNIP3 protein expression (p = 0.0218). Neither BNIP3 protein nor mRNA expression correlated with expression of HIF-1alpha expression or its downstream targets. Tumors which showed loss of expression of BNIP3 had significantly more often lymph node metastases (82% vs 39%, p = 0.010) and showed a higher mitotic activity index (p = 0.027). BNIP3 protein expression was often nuclear in normal breast, but cytoplasmic in tumor cells. CONCLUSION: BNIP3 expression is lost in a significant portion of invasive breast cancers, which is correlated with poor prognostic features such as positive lymph node status and high proliferation, but not with the hypoxic response.

Nuclear morphometric features in benign breast tissue and risk of subsequent breast cancer.

Certain nuclear morphometric features measured in breast tumor tissue have been shown to predict the prognosis of breast cancer patients. However, the application of these features to predicting risk of breast cancer development has received little attention. We conducted a case-control study to evaluate nuclear morphometric features in benign breast tissue in association with subsequent breast cancer risk. The study was nested within a cohort of 4,888 women with a histopathologic diagnosis of benign breast disease (BBD) and involved 61 cases and 71 controls, amongst whom there were 53 matched case-control sets. Conditional logistic regression models were fitted to assess various measurements of nuclear size and nuclear shape factors in relation to subsequent breast cancer risk. In multivariate analysis, subsequent breast cancer risk was positively associated with a nuclear shape factor that takes the shortest nuclear axis and the longest nuclear axis into consideration simultaneously (highest quartile versus lowest 3 quartiles: odds ratio = 3.07, 95% confidence limits = 1.61, 5.84). In contrast, there was no alteration in subsequent breast cancer risk in association with nuclear size features and other shape factors. In conclusion, our study results suggest that the shape factor that takes both the shortest nuclear axis and the longest nuclear axis into consideration might be of value to predict subsequent development of breast cancer among women with BBD.