Prenatal exposure to the German food crisis 1944-1948 and health after 65 years.

Using data on 90% of the German population born 1930-1959, we investigate the long-term relationship between intra-uterine exposure to the German food crisis 1944-1948 and 16 doctor-diagnosed health conditions recorded in 2009 and 2015. Among the exposed, who are 60-70 years old in our data, we find elevated risks of being diagnosed with a wide range of conditions, including diabetes, depression, lung disease, and back pain. In terms of critical periods, malnutrition in the first trimester of pregnancy appears to have the strongest negative correlation with health at older ages.

[Travel times of patients to ambulatory care physicians in Germany]. / Zurückgelegte Wegzeiten in der ambulanten ärztlichen Versorgung in Deutschland.

BACKGROUND: The time needed by patients to get to a doctor's office represents an important indicator of realised access to care. In Germany, findings on travel times are only available from surveys or for some regions. OBJECTIVE: For the first time, this study examines nationwide and physician group-specific travel times in the ambulatory care sector in Germany and describes demographic, supply-side and spatial determinants of variations. METHODS: Using a full review of patient consultations in the statutory health insurance system from 2009/2010 for 14 physician groups (approximately 518 million cases), case-related travel times by car between patients' places of residence and physician's practices were estimated at the municipal level. RESULTS: Physicians were reached in less than 30 min in 90.8% of cases for primary care physicians and up to 63% of cases for radiologists. Patients between 18 and under 30 years of age travel longer to get to the doctor than other age groups. The average travel time at the county level systematically differs between urban and rural planning areas. In the case of gynecologists, dermatologists and ophthalmologists, the average journey time decreases with increasing physician density at the county level, but remains approximately constant from a recognisable point of inflection. There is no association between primary care physician density and travel time at the district level. Spatial analyses show physician group-specific patterns of regional concentrations with an increased proportion of cases with very long travel times. CONCLUSION: Patients' travel times are influenced by supply- and demand-side determinants. Interactions between influential determinants should be analysed in depth to examine the extent to which the time travelled is an expression of regional under- or over-supply rather than an expression of patient preferences.

On the interdependence of ambulatory and hospital care in the German health system.

For some considerable time now the interface between ambulatory and hospital care has been mooted as a cause of inefficiencies in the German health system and there have been calls for a softening of the strict separation between the two sectors. This debate emphasizes the need for detailed empirical information on the interdependence between the two sectors. Using extensive administrative data at the level of the 412 German counties for the years 2007 to 2009 and a simultaneous equation model which allows the numbers of ambulatory and hospital cases to be mutually interdependent, we examine the connection between ambulatory and hospital specialist care separately for ten medical specialties. The results show that the interdependence of ambulatory and hospital services is far from homogeneous. The relationship depends, on the one hand, on the specialty and, on the other, on the direction of the effect observed. This heterogeneity needs to be taken into account for cross-sector needs-based planning.

Determinants of Regional Variation in Health Expenditures in Germany.

Health care expenditure in Germany shows clear regional differences. Such geographic variations are often seen as an indicator for inefficiency. With its homogeneous health care system, low co-payments and uniform prices, Germany is a particularly suited example to analyse regional variations. We use data for the year 2011 on expenditure, utilization of health services and state of health in Germany's statutory health insurance system. This data, which originate from a variety of administrative sources and cover about 90% of the population, are enriched with a wealth of socio-economic variables, data on pollutants, prices and individual preferences. State of health and demography explains 55% of the differences as measured by the standard deviation while all control variables account for a total of 72% of the differences at county level. With other measures of variation, we can account for an even greater proportion. A higher proportion of variation than usually supposed can thus be explained. Whilst this study cannot quantify inefficiencies, our results contradict the thesis that regional variations reflect inefficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of office-based care on hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to quantify the impact of specific medical services in the ambulatory sector (SA) on hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs), in order to be able to assess whether and under what conditions specific ambulatory treatments could serve to lower the hospitalization rate. DATA SOURCE: The analysis is based on administrative data showing the complete provision of medical services in the ambulatory sector in Germany and data from other sources. The data were provided by the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, the Federal Statistical Agency, the Federal Office of Construction and Regional Planning, and the Federal Insurance Agency. STUDY DESIGN: The impact of an increase in specific medical services on hospitalizations for ACSCs was estimated using linear spatial models at the level of the 413 German counties and county boroughs for the years 2007 and 2008. To allow for an undistorted estimation of the coefficients, SA and physician density were instrumented using a two-stage 'least squares' approach. The SA and the rate of hospitalizations for ACSCs were age-standardized. In the models, a well-defined set of covariates was controlled for. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: According to the models, an additional spent on ACSC treatment decreases the rate of hospitalizations for ACSCs for women and men up to an annual Uniform Value Scale For Doctors' Fees point value of approximately 6,891 and 5,735, respectively. The correlation is not linear but, as suspected, exhibits diminishing marginal returns. CONCLUSIONS: Our models suggest that additional medical services reduce the rate of hospitalizations for ACSCs but that this correlation depends on the absolute level of office-based services in a county, all covariates being held equal. Ceteris paribus counties with a very high volume of services exhibit 'flat-of-the-curve medicine', while counties with a very low current level of specific medical services benefit most from an increase in those specific services.

Regional variation in the utilisation of ambulatory services in Germany.

We used an administrative dataset covering approximately 90% of all Germans to investigate the determinants of regional differences in the utilisation of ambulatory services in the year 2008. There are great regional differences in Germany, in GP, specialist and psychotherapist consultations. By means of a regression model taking account of the spatial dependencies of the error terms, we can explain a considerable part of the variation in terms of differences in demography, health status and socio-economic features. In addition, we made use of data on pollutants, the supply of services and the number of hospital cases as explanatory variables, which all have a significant influence on utilisation but contribute considerably less to explaining the differences. Overall, we are in a position to explain 29-40% of the regional differences in ambulatory case numbers at the level of the 413 counties and 55-70% at the level of the 16 German states (Länder) by observable differences.

Waiting times in the ambulatory sector--the case of chronically ill patients.

AIMS: First, the influence of determinants on the waiting times of chronically ill patients in the ambulatory sector is investigated. The determinants are subdivided into four groups: (1) need, (2) socio-economic factors, (3) health system and (4) patient time pressures. Next, the influence of waiting times on the annual number of consultations is examined to assess whether the existing variation in waiting times influences the frequency of medical examinations. The waiting times of chronically ill patients are analysed since regular ambulatory care for this patient group could both improve treatment outcomes and lower costs. DATA SOURCES: Individual data from the 2010 Representative Survey conducted by the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV) together with regional data from the Federal Office of Construction and Regional Planning. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective observational study. The dependent variables are waiting times in the ambulatory sector and the number of consultations of General Practitioners (GPs) and specialist physicians in the year 2010. The explanatory variables of interest are 'need' and 'health system' in the first model and 'length of waiting times' in the second. Negative binomial models with random effects are used to estimate the incidence rate ratios of increased waiting times and number of consultations. Subsequently, the models are stratified by urban and rural areas. RESULTS: In the pooled regression the factor 'privately insured' shortens the waiting time for treatment by a specialist by approximately 28% (about 3 days) in comparison with members of the statutory health insurance system. The category of insurance has no influence on the number of consultations of GPs. In addition, the regression results stratified by urban and rural areas show that in urban areas the factor 'privately insured' reduces the waiting time for specialists by approximately 35% (about 3.3 days) while in rural areas there is no evidence of statistical influence. In neither of the models, however, does the waiting time have a documentable effect on the number of consultations in the ambulatory sector. CONCLUSIONS: In our random sample, characteristics of the health care system have an influence on the waiting time for specialists, but the waiting time has no documentable effect on the number of consultations in the ambulatory sector. In the present analysis this applies to consultations of both GPs and specialists. Nevertheless, it does not rule out the possibility that the length of waiting times might influence the treatment outcomes of certain patient populations.

What accounts for the regional differences in the utilisation of hospitals in Germany?

There are huge regional variations in the utilisation of hospital services in Germany. In 2007 and 2008 the states of Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg had on average just under 38 % fewer hospitalisations per capita than Saxony-Anhalt. We use data from the DRG statistics aggregated at the county level in combination with numerous other data sources (e.g. INKAR Database, accounting data from the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), Federal Medical Registry, Germany Hospital Directory, population structure per county) to establish the proportion of the observed regional differences that can be explained at county and state levels. Overall we are able to account for 73 % of the variation at state level in terms of observable factors. By far the most important reason for the regional variation in the utilisation of in-patient services is differences in medical needs. Differences in the supply of medical services and the substitutability of outpatient and inpatient treatment are also relevant, but to a lesser extent.

The medical profession in Germany: past trends, current state and future prospects.

In conclusion, the shortage of doctors can be described as a pincer movement. The German medical profession is both superannuated and faces difficulty recruiting new young doctors. The shortage of doctors in Germany is thus not caused by a mass exodus of those already working in the system but by the reluctance of young doctors to work in curative medicine. This shortage of doctors is already apparent in the statistics. Last year the number of doctors active in ambulatory medicine dropped in the areas of four State Medical Associations (Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt). Moreover, in Saxony-Anhalt the number of the hospital doctors also declined so that this state was faced with a 1.1% fall in the number of working doctors. The Saarland also recorded a fall in the number of active hospital doctors. The conclusion must be that the standard conditions for doctors must be made more attractive so that young people take more interest in curative medicine. If this does not happen, there will be bottlenecks in the supply of medical care on a broad front in Germany. In the end, the provision of medical care for the population as a whole could be jeopardised.

[German experience of planning medical installations]. / L'expérience Allemande de planification des installations médicales.

Since the 19th century, Germany has adopted the Bismarckian model: the medical doctors in private practice provide ambulatory care to the insured people (nearly all the population) and are paid by (public) insurers on a fee-for-service basis. The country introduced in 1993 a large-scale reform composed of several steps: (i) delimitation of geographic areas having similar characteristics; (ii) calculation for each area various physician/population ratios, each related to a specialty; (iii) if the ratio of a specialty in an area exceeds the average national ratio (of the specialty) by 10% or more, the doctors of the specialty are not allowed to set up their office in the area; (iv) if the ratio of a specialty in an area is lower than the average national ratio by 10% the area is "open". After a decade, one can say that the reform has succeeded in curbing the growth in the numbers of medical doctors. Today, there is nearly no possibility for a medical specialist to set up a private office, unless he/she accepts to practice as GPs or to succeed to an other colleague of his specialty. As a matter of fact, many areas are still open to GPs. The medical profession is aging and the young graduates are not motivated to set up office. The country may possibly go down from oversupply in the 80's to medical manpower shortage in the next decade.