Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs.

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

Incidence of catastrophic health spending in Indonesia: insights from a Household Panel Study 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia implemented one of the world's largest single-payer national health insurance schemes (the Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional or JKN) in 2014. This study aims to assess the incidence of catastrophic health spending (CHS) and its determinants and trends between 2018 and 2019 by which time JKN enrolment coverage exceeded 80%. METHODS: This study analysed data collected from a two-round cross-sectional household survey conducted in ten provinces of Indonesia in February-April 2018 and August-October 2019. The incidence of CHS was defined as the proportion of households with out-of-pocket (OOP) health spending exceeding 10% of household consumption expenditure. Chi-squared tests were used to compare the incidences of CHS across subgroups for each household characteristic. Logistic regression models were used to investigate factors associated with incurring CHS and the trend over time. Sensitivity analyses assessing the incidence of CHS based on a higher threshold of 25% of total household expenditure were conducted. RESULTS: The overall incidence of CHS at the 10% threshold fell from 7.9% to 2018 to 4.4% in 2019. The logistic regression models showed that households with JKN membership experienced significantly lower incidence of CHS compared to households without insurance coverage in both years. The poorest households were more likely to incur CHS compared to households in other wealth quintiles. Other predictors of incurring CHS included living in rural areas and visiting private health facilities. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the overall incidence of CHS decreased in Indonesia between 2018 and 2019. OOP payments for health care and the risk of CHS still loom high among JKN members and among the lowest income households. More needs to be done to further contain OOP payments and further research is needed to investigate whether CHS pushes households below the poverty line.

The benefits and burden of health financing in Indonesia: analyses of nationally representative cross-sectional data.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia has committed to deliver universal health coverage by 2024. Reforming the country's health-financing system is key to achieving this commitment. We aimed to evaluate how the benefits and burden of health financing are distributed across income groups and the extent to which Indonesia has achieved equity in the funding and delivery of health care after financing reforms. METHODS: We conducted benefit incidence analyses (BIA) and financing incidence analyses (FIA) using cross-sectional nationally representative data from several datasets. Two waves (Feb 1 to April 30, 2018, and Aug 1 to Oct 31, 2019) of the Equity and Health Care Financing in Indonesia (ENHANCE) study household survey involving 7500 households from ten of the 34 provinces in Indonesia were used to obtain health and socioeconomic status data for the BIA. Two waves (2018 and 2019) of the National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), the most recent wave (2014) of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, and the 2017 and 2018 National Health Accounts were used to obtain data for the FIA. In the BIA, we calculated a concentration index to assess the distribution of health-care benefits (-1·0 [pro-poor] to 1·0 [pro-rich]), considering potential differences in health-care need. In the FIA, we evaluated the equity of health-financing contributions by socioeconomic quintiles by calculating the Kakwani index to assess the relative progressivity of each financing source. Both the BIA and FIA compared results from early 2018 (baseline) with results from late 2019. FINDINGS: There were 31 864 participants in the ENHANCE survey in 2018 compared with 31 215 in 2019. Women constituted 50·5% and men constituted 49·5% of the total participants for each year. SUSENAS had 1 131 825 participants in 2018 compared with 1 204 466 in 2019. Women constituted 49·9% of the participants for each year, whereas men constituted 51·1%. The distribution of health-care benefits in the public sector was marginally pro-poor; people with low income received a greater proportion of benefits from health services than people with high income between 2018 (concentration index -0·008, 95% CI -0·075 to 0·059) and 2019 (-0·060, -0·139 to 0·019). The benefit incidence in the private health sector was significantly pro-rich in 2018 (0·134, 0·065 to 0·203, p=0·0010) and 2019 (0·190, -0·192 to 0·572, p=0·0070). Health-financing incidence changed from being moderately progressive in 2018 (Kakwani index 0·034, 95% CI 0·030 to 0·038) to mildly regressive in 2019 (-0·030, -0·034 to -0·025). INTERPRETATION: Although Indonesia has made substantial progress in expanding health-care coverage, a lot remains to be done to improve equity in financing and spending. Improving comprehensiveness of benefits will reduce out-of-pocket spending and allocating more funding to primary care would improve access to health-care services for people with low income. FUNDING: UK Health Systems Research Initiative, UK Department of International Development, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, and Wellcome Trust.

Using measures of quality of care to assess equity in health care funding for primary care: analysis of Indonesian household data.

BACKGROUND: Many countries implementing pro-poor reforms to expand subsidized health care, especially for the poor, recognize that high-quality healthcare, and not just access alone, is necessary to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. As the poor are more likely to use low quality health services, measures to improve access to health care need to emphasise quality as the cornerstone to achieving equity goals. Current methods to evaluate health systems financing equity fail to take into account measures of quality. This paper aims to provide a worked example of how to adapt a popular quantitative approach, Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA), to incorporate a quality weighting into the computation of public subsidies for health care. METHODS: We used a dataset consisting of a sample of households surveyed in 10 provinces of Indonesia in early-2018. In parallel, a survey of public health facilities was conducted in the same geographical areas, and information about health facility infrastructure and basic equipment was collected. In each facility, an index of service readiness was computed as a measure of quality. Individuals who reported visiting a primary health care facility in the month before the interview were matched to their chosen facility. Standard BIA and an extended BIA that adjusts for service quality were conducted. RESULTS: Quality scores were relatively high across all facilities, with an average of 82%. Scores for basic equipment were highest, with an average score of 99% compared to essential medicines with an average score of 60%. Our findings from the quality-weighted BIA show that the distribution of subsidies for public primary health care facilities became less 'pro-poor' while private clinics became more 'pro-rich' after accounting for quality of care. Overall the distribution of subsidies became significantly pro-rich (CI = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Routine collection of quality indicators that can be linked to individuals is needed to enable a comprehensive understanding of individuals' pathways of care. From a policy perspective, accounting for quality of care in health financing assessment is crucial in a context where quality of care is a nationwide issue. In such a context, any health financing performance assessment is likely to be biased if quality is not accounted for.

Expanding japanese encephalitis vaccination to selected endemic indonesia provinces: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

Introduction: A Markov model was used to evaluate the potential health and economic impact of introducing JE vaccine nationally and in selected endemic areas of Indonesia compared to no vaccination from government and societal perspectives over a child's lifetime horizon. Methods: Costs were obtained from hospitalized JE suspected patient billing data from 2014 to 2019 in seven provinces. Local data burden data were derived from the literature. Analysis considered several scenarios, including national and sub-regional introduction in seven provinces via a one-time vaccination campaign in all children 1-15 years old followed by routine immunization among infants (RI), or RI alone without vaccination campaign. Results and discussions: Across scenarios, JE vaccination was projected to range from cost-saving to cost-effective compared to no vaccination at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x gross domestic product per capita. Including a one-time campaign would avert nearly three times as many JE cases and deaths compared to RI alone while still providing good value for money.

Equity of health financing in Indonesia: A 5-year financing incidence analysis (2015-2019).

BACKGROUND: In 2014, Indonesia launched a single payer national health insurance scheme with the aim of covering the entire population by 2024. The objective of this paper is to assess the equity with which contributions to the health financing system were distributed in Indonesia over 2015 - 2019. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis of nationally representative data from the National Socioeconomic Survey of Indonesia (2015 - 2019). The relative progressivity of each health financing source and overall health financing was determined using a summary score, the Kakwani index. FINDINGS: Around a third of health financing was sourced from out-of-pocket (OOP) payments each year, with direct taxes, indirect taxes and social health insurance (SHI) each taking up 15 - 20%. Direct taxes and OOP payments were progressive sources of health financing, and indirect tax payments regressive, for all of 2015 - 2019. SHI contributions were regressive except in 2017 and 2018. The overall health financing system was progressive from 2015 to 2018, but this declined year by year and became mildly regressive in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The declining progressivity of the overall health financing system between 2015 - 2019 suggests that Indonesia still has a way to go in developing a fair and equitable health financing system that ensures the poor are financially protected. FUNDING: This study is supported through the Health Systems Research Initiative in the UK, and is jointly funded by the Department of International Development, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust.

Key Factors Influencing Use of Immunization Cost Evidence in Country Planning and Budgeting Processes: Experiences From Indonesia, Tanzania, and Vietnam.

In many low- and middle-income countries, planning cycles and policy decisions are not always informed by cost evidence, even where relevant and recent cost evidence is available. The Immunization Costing Action Network (ICAN) project was a research and learning community designed to strengthen country capacity to generate immunization cost evidence and to understand and improve the evidence-to-policy linkages for the evidence. We identified key factors that increase the likelihood that health policy makers will use evidence for policy making or planning, which shaped the development of a 6-step evidence to policy and practice (EPP) facilitated process. ICAN used the EPP process in Indonesia, Tanzania, and Vietnam from 2016-2019. The experience resulted in several insights regarding country priorities related to cost evidence and factors that determine uptake. Cost evidence is more likely to be used if it answers a specific policy question prioritized by the immunization program, while the use case is less clear and urgent for routine planning and program management. Nonhealth ministries and subnational stakeholders can provide important perspectives to inform the research and its usability. The use case for evidence should be revisited periodically as divergences from formal planning cycles are common and new policy windows open. Ensuring evidence is available at the right time is critical, even if this requires a sacrifice between rigor and speed. Engaging a small group of stakeholders, rather than an individual, to champion the research may be more effective, and the research has greater legitimacy if it is produced by multidisciplinary country teams. Evidence and messages should be tailored for and packaged targeting different audiences. Going forward, continued support is necessary to bridge the divide between those who generate cost evidence and those who translate evidence for policy and planning decisions.

Decision Tree Clinical Algorithm for Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment in the Elderly in Primary Health Care: Development, Test of Accuracy, and Time-Effectiveness Analysis.

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is predicted to be a common cognitive impairment in primary health care. Early detection and appropriate management of MCI can slow the rate of deterioration in cognitive deficits. The current methods for early detection of MCI have not been satisfactory for some doctors in primary health care. Therefore, an easy, fast, accurate and reliable method for screening of MCI in primary health care is needed. This study intends to develop a decision tree clinical algorithm based on a combination of simple neurological physical examination and brief cognitive assessment for distinguishing elderly with MCI from normal elderly in primary health care. This is a diagnostic study, comparative analysis in elderly with normal cognition and those presenting with MCI. We enrolled 212 elderly people aged 60.04-79.92 years old. Multivariate statistical analysis showed that the existence of subjective memory complaints, history of lack of physical exercise, abnormal verbal semantic fluency, and poor one-leg balance were found to be predictors of MCI diagnosis (p ≤ 0.001; p = 0.036; p ≤ 0.001; p = 0.013). The decision trees clinical algorithm, which is a combination of these variables, has a fairly good accuracy in distinguishing elderly with MCI from normal elderly (accuracy = 89.62%; sensitivity = 71.05%; specificity = 100%; positive predictive value = 100%; negative predictive value = 86.08%; negative likelihood ratio = 0.29; and time effectiveness ratio = 3.03). These results suggest that the decision tree clinical algorithm can be used for screening of MCI in the elderly in primary health care.

Building Capacity for Mortality Statistics Programs: Perspectives from the Indonesian Experience.

Information on deaths by age, sex, and cause are primary inputs for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, most developing countries lack efficient death registration systems that generate these data on a routine and timely basis. The global community is promoting initiatives to establish and strengthen national mortality statistics programs across the developing world. Building human, technical, and institutional capacity to operate these programs are essential elements for the program. In Indonesia, the government has established a national Sample Registration System (SRS) covering a population of 9 million and is looking toward further scaling up of operations of the mortality statistics program in conjunction with expansion of the national Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems. This article reports the theoretical and practical perspectives gained from experiences in developing human capacity in the Indonesian context. These perspectives are described in terms of the institutional, personnel, and functional components of the program for collection, compilation, analysis, and utilisation of mortality and cause of death data. The article also describes the challenges and potential solutions for implementing capacity building activities at national and subnational level. In conclusion, the need for and availability of training resources are discussed, including the potential for involvement of public health academia and international collaborations within a research framework on program management, quality evaluation, and data utilisation. Adequate attention to capacity building is essential to ensure the success and sustainability of national mortality statistics programs.

Maternal and Child Health Handbook use for maternal and child care: a cluster randomized controlled study in rural Java, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of the Maternal and Child Health Handbook (MCHHB), a home-based booklet for pregnancy, delivery and postnatal/child health, was evaluated on care acquisition and home care in rural Java, a low service-coverage area. METHODS: We conducted a health centre-based randomized trial, with a 2-year follow-up. Intervention included (i) MCHHB provision at antenatal care visits; (ii) records and guides by health personnel on and with the MCHHB; and (iii) sensitization of care by volunteers using the MCHHB. RESULTS: The follow-up rate was 70.2% (183, intervention area; 271, control area). Respondents in the intervention area received consecutive MCH services including two doses of tetanus toxoid injections and antenatal care four times or more during pregnancy, professional assistance during child delivery and vitamin A supplements administration to their children, after adjustment for confounding variables and cluster effects (OR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.19-3.47). In the intervention area, home care (continued breastfeeding; introducing complementary feeding; proper feeding order; varied foods feeding; self-feeding training; and care for cough), perceived support by husbands, and lower underweight rates and stunting rates among children were observed. CONCLUSION: MCHHB use promoted continuous care acquisition and care at home from pregnancy to early child-rearing stages in rural Java.

An evaluation of health systems equity in Indonesia: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Many low and middle income countries are implementing reforms to support Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Perhaps one of the most ambitious examples of this is Indonesia's national health scheme known as the JKN which is designed to make health care available to its entire population of 255 million by end of 2019. If successful, the JKN will be the biggest single payer system in the world. While Indonesia has made steady progress, around a third of its population remains without cover and out of pocket payments for health are widespread even among JKN members. To help close these gaps, especially among the poor, the Indonesian government is currently implementing a set of UHC policy reforms that include the integration of remaining government insurance schemes into the JKN, expansion of provider networks, restructuring of provider payments systems, accreditation of all contracted health facilities and a range of demand side initiatives to increase insurance uptake, especially in the informal sector. This study evaluates the equity impact of this latest set of UHC reforms. METHODS: Using a before and after design, we will evaluate the combined effects of the national UHC reforms at baseline (early 2018) and target of JKN full implementation (end 2019) on: progressivity of the health care financing system; pro-poorness of the health care delivery system; levels of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditure; and self-reported health outcomes. In-depth interviews with stakeholders to document the context and the process of implementing these reforms, will also be undertaken. DISCUSSION: As countries like Indonesia focus on increasing coverage, it is critically important to ensure that the poor and vulnerable - who are often the most difficult to reach - are not excluded. The results of this study will not only help track Indonesia's progress to universalism but also reveal what the UHC-reforms mean to the poor.

On the road to universal health care in Indonesia, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: As Indonesia moves to provide health coverage for all citizens, understanding patterns of morbidity and mortality is important to allocate resources and address inequality. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 study (GBD 2016) estimates sources of early death and disability, which can inform policies to improve health care. METHODS: We used GBD 2016 results for cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 333 causes in Indonesia and in seven comparator countries. Estimates were produced by location, year, age, and sex using methods outlined in GBD 2016. Using the Socio-demographic Index, we generated expected values for each metric and compared these against observed results. FINDINGS: In Indonesia between 1990 and 2016, life expectancy increased by 8·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 7·3-8·8) to 71·7 years (71·0-72·3): the increase was 7·4 years (6·4-8·6) for males and 8·7 years (7·8-9·5) for females. Total DALYs due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes decreased by 58·6% (95% UI 55·6-61·6), from 43·8 million (95% UI 41·4-46·5) to 18·1 million (16·8-19·6), whereas total DALYs from non-communicable diseases rose. DALYs due to injuries decreased, both in crude rates and in age-standardised rates. The three leading causes of DALYs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes. Dietary risks were a leading contributor to the DALY burden, accounting for 13·6% (11·8-15·4) of DALYs in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 27 years, health across many indicators has improved in Indonesia. Improvements are partly offset by rising deaths and a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. To maintain and increase health gains, further work is needed to identify successful interventions and improve health equity. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Resource Needs for the Trivalent Oral Polio to Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine Switch in Indonesia.

Background: We present an empirical economic cost analysis of the April 2016 switch from trivalent (tOPV) to bivalent (bOPV) oral polio vaccine at the national-level and 3 provinces (Bali, West Sumatera and Nusa Tenggara) for Indonesia's Expanded Program on Immunization. Methods: Data on the quantity and prices of resources used in the 4 World Health Organization guideline phases of the switch were collected at the national-level and in each of the sampled provinces, cities/districts, and health facilities. Costs were calculated as the sum of the value of resources reportedly used in each sampled unit by switch phase. Results: Estimated national-level costs were $46 791. Costs by health system level varied from $9062 to $34 256 at the province-level, from $4576 to $11 936 at the district-level , and from $3488 to $29 175 at the city-level. Estimated national costs ranged from $4 076 446 (Bali, minimum cost scenario) to $28 120 700 (West Sumatera, maximum cost scenario). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the majority of tPOV to bOPV switch costs were borne at the subnational level. Considerable variation in reported costs among health system levels surveyed indicates a need for flexibility in budgeting for globally synchronized public health activities.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in Indonesia

Objective: National cervical cancer prevention program has been initiated in Indonesia since April 2015 and the ministry of health has started efforts to integrate the HPV Vaccine in the national immunization program since Q4 2015. Thus, it becomes important to analyze the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine. The objective of this model is to examine the potential long-term epidemiologic and economic impact of quadrivalent HPV(qHPV;6/11/16/18) vaccination program in Indonesia. Methods: A previously validated transmission dynamic model was used to estimate the long-term epidemiologic and economic consequences of quadrivalent HPV vaccination by comparing cost-effectiveness of 2 dose qHPV vaccination strategy for girls 11-12 years old (with or without catch up; catch up dose for 12­26 years) versus Screening Only (Pap Smear) for reducing cost related to HPV type 6,11,16,18 (cervical cancer, CIN 1, CIN 2/3, and genital warts). Costs of an HPV disease episode-of-care (diagnosis and treatment) were calculated for base case analysis using local Indonesian cost. Result: 2-dose qHPV vaccination strategies without catch up reduce the overall incidence of HPV 16/18­related cervical cancer relative to screening by 54.4% over the 100 year following vaccine introduction. Likewise, vaccination strategies reduce the incidence of HPV type 16/18 CIN 2/3, CIN 1 by 69.1% and 71.8% respectively, also reducing HPV type 6/11 CIN 1, genital warts in female, genital warts in male by 82.9%,84.2%,82.1% respectively, at this time point. From total reduction of health care cost, 67.1% attributable for diseases caused by HPV type 16/18 and 32.9% attributable for diseases caused by HPV type 6/11. Without catch up, cost/QALY would be $450/year. However catch-up strategy is more cost effective versus vaccinates 12-year-old girls only; with cost/QALYs would be $390/year. Conclusion: HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccination of females in Indonesia are 1) substantially reduce genital warts, CIN, and cervical cancer; 2) improve quality of life, and 3) with the Indonesia GDP of USD 3,531.80 in 2014 , Cost/QALYs result with or without catch up is considered very cost-effective when implemented; however with catch up, the cost/QALY can be better.

Awareness and Current Use of Electronic Cigarettes in Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar, and Greece: Findings From 2011-2013 Global Adult Tobacco Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Increases in electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) awareness and current use have been documented in high income countries but less is known about middle and low income countries. METHODS: Nationally representative household survey data from the first four Global Adult Tobacco Surveys to assess e-cigarettes were analyzed, including Indonesia (2011), Malaysia (2011), Qatar (2013), and Greece (2013). Correlates of e-cigarette awareness and current use were calculated. Sample sizes for Greece and Qatar allowed for further analysis of e-cigarette users. RESULTS: Awareness of e-cigarettes was 10.9% in Indonesia, 21.0% in Malaysia, 49.0% in Qatar, and 88.5% in Greece. In all four countries, awareness was higher among male, younger, more educated, and wealthier respondents. Current e-cigarette use among those aware of e-cigarettes was 3.9% in Malaysia, 2.5% in Indonesia, 2.2% in Greece and 1.8% in Qatar. Across these four countries, an estimated 818 500 people are currently using e-cigarettes. Among current e-cigarette users, 64.4% in Greece and 84.1% in Qatar also smoked cigarettes, and, 10.6% in Greece and 6.0% in Qatar were never-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: E-cigarette awareness and use was evident in all four countries. Ongoing surveillance and monitoring of awareness and use of e-cigarettes in these and other countries could help inform tobacco control policies and public health interventions. Future surveillance should monitor use of e-cigarettes among current smokers and uptake among never-smokers and relapsing former smokers.

Measuring subnational under-5 mortality: lessons from a survey in the eastern Indonesian district of Ende.

There is an urgent need for measurements of the magnitude and determinants of under-5 mortality at the district level in Indonesia. This article describes a sample household survey conducted in Ende District, East Nusa Tenggara province. Complete birth histories were recorded from all women residing in a sample of 32 villages (7454 households) of Ende. The survey was conducted in early 2010, deriving measures for the period 2000-2009. The survey instrument also included key variables required to measure determinants of under-5 mortality. The results showed that there are significant differentials in under-5 mortality risk within Ende, ranging from 27 to 85 per 1000. This information will assist the district health office to implement maternal and child health programs to meet national targets for United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4. The findings provide robust mortality measures at the district level and demonstrate the feasibility of conducting such a study using local resources, in a short time, and with low costs.

Investment case for improving maternal and child health: results from four countries.

BACKGROUND: Without addressing the constraints specific to disadvantaged populations, national health policies such as universal health coverage risk increasing equity gaps. Health system constraints often have the greatest impact on disadvantaged populations, resulting in poor access to quality health services among vulnerable groups. METHODS: The Investment Cases in Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, and the state of Orissa in India were implemented to support evidence-based sub-national planning and budgeting for equitable scale-up of quality MNCH services. The Investment Case framework combines the basic setup of strategic problem solving with a decision-support model. The analysis and identification of strategies to scale-up priority MNCH interventions is conducted by in-country planners and policymakers with facilitation from local and international research partners. RESULTS: Significant variation in scaling-up constraints, strategies, and associated costs were identified between countries and across urban and rural typologies. Community-based strategies have been considered for rural populations served predominantly by public providers, but this analysis suggests that the scaling-up of maternal, newborn, and child health services requires health system interventions focused on 'getting the basics right'. These include upgrading or building facilities, training and redistribution of staff, better supervision, and strengthening the procurement of essential commodities. Some of these strategies involve substantial early capital expenditure in remote and sparsely populated districts. These supply-side strategies are not only the 'best buys', but also the 'required buys' to ensure the quality of health services as coverage increases. By contrast, such public supply strategies may not be the 'best buys' in densely populated urbanised settings, served by a mix of public and private providers. Instead, robust regulatory and supervisory mechanisms are required to improve the accessibility and quality of services delivered by the private sector. They can lead to important maternal mortality reductions at relatively low costs. CONCLUSIONS: National strategies that do not take into consideration the special circumstances of disadvantaged areas risk disempowering local managers and may lead to a "business-as-usual" acceptance of unreachable goals. To effectively guide health service delivery at a local level, national plans should adopt typologies that reflect the different problems and strategies to scale up key MNCH interventions.

The role of home-based records in the establishment of a continuum of care for mothers, newborns, and children in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The provision of appropriate care along the continuum of maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) service delivery is a challenge in developing countries. To improve this, in the 1990s, Indonesia introduced the maternal and child health (MCH) handbook, as an integrated form of parallel home-based records. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify the roles of home-based records both before and after childbirth, especially in provinces where the MCH handbook (MCHHB) was extensively promoted, by examining their association with MNCH service uptake. DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study using nationally representative data sets, the Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys (IDHSs) from 1997, 2002-2003, and 2007. The IDHS identifies respondents' ownership of home-based records before and after childbirth. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations between record ownership and service utilisation in national data and data from two provinces, West Sumatra and North Sulawesi, where ownership of pre- and post-natal records served as a proxy for MCHHB ownership. RESULTS: Pre- and post-natal record ownership increased from 1997 to 2007. Provincial data from 2007 showed that handbook ownership was associated with having delivery assisted by trained personnel [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.25], receiving maternal care (aOR: 3.92, 95% CI: 2.35-6.52), completing 12 doses of child immunisation for seven diseases (aOR: 4.86, 95% CI: 2.37-9.95), and having immunisation before and after childbirth (aOR: 5.40, 95% CI: 2.28-12.76), whereas national data showed that service utilisation was associated with ownership of both records compared with owning a single record or none. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that pre- and post-natal home-based record use may be effective for ensuring service utilisation. In addition, since the handbook is an efficient home-based record for use throughout children's life courses, it could be an effective tool for promoting the continuum of MNCH care in Indonesia.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS: We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS: 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION: This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.