Anthropogenic and environmental determinants of alien plant species spatial distribution on an island scale.

Mediterranean islands are considered especially vulnerable to biological invasions by alien plants. However, there is a lack of studies on island scale regarding the factors that determine alien plant's spatial distribution, and the way they affect invasion process. A roadside survey of alien plant species was conducted on Lesvos, the 8th largest island in Mediterranean basin. Data on species counts and explanatory variables were aggregated to a 1 sq. km vector grid and brought together into a single GIS layer. Alien species counts were modelled by using a Negative-binomial model while a Generalised Additive Model was used to examine possible non-linear relationships to the predictors by using splines. A subset of significant factors, related both to human activities and the environment, shaped the spatial distribution of aliens and influenced, in various ways, their future invasion outcome. Transformed areas with high levels of anthropogenic pressures and disturbances, including high population numbers, dense road network, ports, and intensive land use, as is the case for coastal zones, promoted the presence of alien species. Contrary, modified areas, such as grazed lands, seemed to restrict alien species occurrences, possibly due to the long grazing history these areas present, a regime in which aliens are not adapted. Alien plants presence was positively associated with high levels of NPP, diversity of geological substrates, and a west-facing aspect. Anthropogenic determinants of alien spatial patterns were primarily connected to increased propagule pressure, whereas environmental factors demonstrated the preference of alien plants for resource-rich environments.

A Random Forest-Cellular Automata modelling approach to explore future land use/cover change in Attica (Greece), under different socio-economic realities and scales.

This paper explores potential future land use/cover (LUC) dynamics in the Attica region, Greece, under three distinct economic performance scenarios. During the last decades, Attica underwent a significant and predominantly unregulated process of urban growth, due to a substantial increase in housing demand coupled with limited land use planning controls. However, the recent financial crisis affected urban growth trends considerably. This paper uses the observed LUC trends between 1991 and 2016 to sketch three divergent future scenarios of economic development. The observed LUC trends are then analysed using 27 dynamic, biophysical, socio-economic, terrain and proximity-based factors, to generate transition potential maps, implementing a Random Forests (RF) regression modelling approach. Scenarios are projected to 2040 by implementing a spatially explicit Cellular Automata (CA) model. The resulting maps are subjected to a multiple resolution sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of spatial resolution of the input data to the model outputs. Findings show that, under the current setting of an underdeveloped land use planning apparatus, a long-term scenario of high economic growth will increase built-up surfaces in the region by almost 24%, accompanied by a notable decrease in natural areas and cropland. Interestingly, in the case that the currently negative economic growth rates persist, artificial surfaces in the region are still expected to increase by approximately 7.5% by 2040.

Factors shaping alien plant species richness spatial patterns across Natura 2000 Special Areas of Conservation of Greece.

This paper aims to determine the main factors that shape the spatial patterns of alien plant species occurrence across Natura 2000 Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) in Greece, and quantify their influence. A series of spatial analysis techniques for the development of a spatial database of the factors involved, followed by a boosted negative binomial Generalised Additive Model for location scale and shape, were implemented. Native plant species richness, topography and hydrography, human population density, and a spatial preference to the northern-western sites are the key factors that explain the variation in the occurrence of alien plant species. Native plant species richness and human population density have a positive effect on alien plant species presence, while topography aspects, such as elevation and slope, and the distance from the hydrographical network a negative one. All factors are indirectly linked to propagule pressure emphasizing the importance of human activities for the efforts on managing protected areas.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.