Pelagic Sargassum in the Gulf of Mexico driven by ocean currents and eddies.

Pelagic Sargassum in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) plays an important role in ocean biology and ecology, yet our knowledge of its origins and transport pathways is limited. Here, using satellite observations of Sargassum areal density and ocean surface currents between 2000 and 2023, we show that large amounts of Sargassum in the GoM can either originate from the northwestern GoM or be a result of physical transport from the northwestern Caribbean Sea, both with specific transport pathways. Sargassum of the northwestern GoM can be transported to the eastern GoM by ocean currents and eddies, eventually entering the Sargasso Sea. Sargassum entering the GoM from the northwestern Caribbean Sea can be transported in three different directions, with the northward and eastward transports governed by the Loop Current System (LCS) and westward transport driven by the westward extension of the LCS, the propagation or relaying of ocean eddies, the wind-driven westward currents on the Campeche Bank with or without eddies, and the westward currents with/without currents associated with eddies in the northern/central GoM. Overall, the spatial distribution patterns of pelagic Sargassum in the GoM are strongly influenced by the LCS and relevant eddies.

Oil Transport Following the Deepwater Horizon Blowout.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 was the largest in US history, covering more than 1,000 km of shorelines and causing losses that exceeded $50 billion. While oil transformation processes are understood at the laboratory scale, the extent of the Deepwater Horizon spill made it challenging to integrate these processes in the field. This review tracks the Deepwater Horizon oil during its journey from the Mississippi Canyon block 252 (MC252) wellhead, first discussing the formation of the oil and gas plume and the ensuing oil droplet size distribution, then focusing on the behavior of the oil on the water surface with and without waves. It then reports on massive drifter experiments in the Gulf of Mexico and the impact of the Mississippi River on the oil transport. Finally, it concludes by addressing the formation of oil-particle aggregates. Although physical processes lend themselves to numerical modeling, we attempted to elucidate them without using advanced modeling, as our goal is to enhance communication among scientists, engineers, and other entities interested in oil spills.

Long term simulations of potential oil spills around Cuba.

Simulations over eight years of continuous surface oil spills around Cuba are carried out to identify the most likely stranding (beaching) locations. The open source Lagrangian oil drift model OpenOil is applied with high resolution hydrodynamic forcing. The actual fraction of the released oil mass reaching different regions is calculated, revealing small differences between a light and a heavy crude oil type. Similar stranding rates for the two oil types are found. Another important conclusion is that, due to the high temporal variability in stranding rates, short term simulations of a few weeks are not suitable to assess environmental risk. The highest stranding rates are simulated in winter in Northern Cuba. It is also found that oil could reach Northern Cuba, Yucatan or Florida in about 3-5 days after a spill.

Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

Remote sensing assessment of oil spills near a damaged platform in the Gulf of Mexico.

An oil platform in the Mississippi Canyon 20 (MC-20) site was damaged by Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. In this study, we use medium- to high-resolution (10-30 m) optical remote sensing imagery to systematically assess oil spills near this site for the period between 2004 and 2016. Image analysis detects no surface oil in 2004, but ~40% of the cloud-free images in 2005 show oil slicks, and this number increases to ~70% in 2006-2011, and >80% since 2012. For all cloud-free images from 2005 through 2016 (including those without oil slicks), delineated oil slicks show an average oil coverage of 14.9 km2/image, with an estimated oil discharge rate of 48 to ~1700 barrels/day, and a cumulative oil-contaminated area of 1900 km2 around the MC-20 site. Additional analysis suggests that the detected oil slick distribution can be largely explained by surface currents, winds, and density fronts.

Evolution of the Macondo well blowout: simulating the effects of the circulation and synthetic dispersants on the subsea oil transport.

During the Deepwater Horizon incident, crude oil flowed into the Gulf of Mexico from 1522 m underwater. In an effort to prevent the oil from rising to the surface, synthetic dispersants were applied at the wellhead. However, uncertainties in the formation of oil droplets and difficulties in measuring their size in the water column, complicated further assessment of the potential effect of the dispersant on the subsea-to-surface oil partition. We adapted a coupled hydrodynamic and stochastic buoyant particle-tracking model to the transport and fate of hydrocarbon fractions and simulated the far-field transport of the oil from the intrusion depth. The evaluated model represented a baseline for numerical experiments where we varied the distributions of particle sizes and thus oil mass. The experiments allowed to quantify the relative effects of chemical dispersion, vertical currents, and inertial buoyancy motion on oil rise velocities. We present a plausible model scenario, where some oil is trapped at depth through shear emulsification due to the particular conditions of the Macondo blowout. Assuming effective mixing of the synthetic dispersants at the wellhead, the model indicates that the submerged oil mass is shifted deeper, decreasing only marginally the amount of oil surfacing. In this scenario, the oil rises slowly to the surface or stays immersed. This suggests that other mechanisms may have contributed to the rapid surfacing of oil-gas mixture observed initially. The study also reveals local topographic and hydrodynamic processes that influence the oil transport in eddies and multiple layers. This numerical approach provides novel insights on oil transport mechanisms from deep blowouts and on gauging the subsea use of synthetic dispersant in mitigating coastal damage.

Surface evolution of the deepwater horizon oil spill patch: combined effects of circulation and wind-induced drift.

Following the Deepwater Horizon blowout, major concerns were raised about the probability that the Loop Current would entrain oil at the surface of the Gulf of Mexico toward South Florida. However, such a scenario did not materialize. Results from a modeling approach suggest that the prevailing winds, through the drift they induced at the ocean surface, played a major role in pushing the oil toward the coasts along the northern Gulf, and, in synergy with the Loop Current evolution, prevented the oil from reaching the Florida Straits. This implies that both oceanic currents and surface wind-induced drift must be taken into account for the successful forecasting of the trajectories and landfall of oil particles, even in energetic environments such as the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, the time range of these predictions is limited to the weather forecasting range, in addition to the range set up by ocean forecasting capabilities.