ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The natural history of symptomatic uncomplicated gallstone disease is largely unknown. We examined the risk of progressing from symptomatic uncomplicated to complicated gallstone disease in a large regional cohort of patients, where disruptions in elective surgical capacities have led to the indefinite postponement of surgery for benign conditions, including cholecystectomies. METHODS: Patients with radiologically diagnosed incident symptomatic and uncomplicated gallstone disease were identified from outpatient clinics and emergency departments on the Island of Funen, Denmark. The absolute risk of complications (cholecystitis, cholangitis, pancreatitis, acute cholecystectomy for unremitting pain) was calculated using death and elective cholecystectomies as competing risks using the Aalen-Johansen method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of gallstone complications associated with patient and gallstone characteristics. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-six patients diagnosed with incident symptomatic, uncomplicated gallstone disease from 1 January 2020 to 1 July 2023 were identified. During 79,170 person-years of observation, 176 (61.5%) patients developed a gallstone-related complication. The 6-, 12- and 24-month risk of developing gallstone-related complications were 36%, 55% and 81%. The risk of developing complications related to common bile duct stones was lowest with larger stones (aHR per millimeter increase = 0.89 (0.82-0.97), p < 0.01), while no covariates were statistically significantly associated with the risk of cholecystitis. Eighty-five (30%) patients underwent elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy, with one patient (1.2%) developing a gallstone-related complication afterward. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing complications to symptomatic gallstones in a general Scandinavian population is high, and prophylactic cholecystectomy should be considered.
