ABSTRACT
Studies on birth rate regularities in Russia in the context of the task of ensuring reproduction of the population remain relevant. Assessment of the scale and trends in regional differentiation using the method of calculating birth rates in real generations of women makes it possible to obtain a more reliable picture of the ongoing processes, to assess the reproductive potential and target groups for the most effective implementation of demographic policy measures. The article presents results of calculations of fertility rates in real generations of women for all regions of the Russian Federation in line with the 2020 population census. The analysis has identified significant differences in the scale and patterns of fertility in the generations of women in the Russian regions. In 34 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the difference (in one direction or another) between places in rows in terms of the average number of children born to women aged 40-44 (according to the 2020 population census) and the total fertility rate (2021 data) exceeds 10 places. The potential is best realized in the national republics, while in the regions of Central Russia small families prevail. The prognostic possibilities of using the expected numbers of children are proved, and the use of the total fertility rate indicator as a target for the Russian average indicators was validated. Interregional differentiation is significantly higher for the third birth, which is confirmed by the calculated coefficient of variation.
