Long-term health and economic benefits of switching to tenofovir alafenamide versus continuing on entecavir in chronic hepatitis B patients with low-level viremia in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Despite the success of current treatments, many chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients still live with low-level viremia [LLV] resulting in liver disease progression. This study evaluated the long-term health and economic impact of switching to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) from entecavir (ETV) in Saudi Arabia (SA) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) LLV patients. METHODS: A hybrid decision tree Markov state-transition model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with CHB LLV treated with ETV and switched to TAF over a lifetime horizon in SA. While on treatment, patients either achieved complete virologic response (CVR) or maintained LLV. CVR patients experienced slower progression to advanced liver disease stages as compared to LLV patients. Demographic data, transition probabilities, treatment efficacy, health state costs, and utilities were sourced from published literature. Treatment costs were sourced from publicly available databases. RESULTS: Base case analysis found that over a lifetime horizon, switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV increased the proportion of patients achieving CVR (76% versus 14%, respectively). Switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV resulted in a reduction in cases of compensated cirrhosis (-52%), decompensated cirrhosis (-5%), hepatocellular carcinoma (-22%), liver transplants (-12%), and a 37% reduction in liver-related deaths. Switching to TAF was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $57,222, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times gross national income per capita [$65,790/QALY]. CONCLUSIONS: This model found that switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV in SA CHB LLV patients substantially reduced long-term CHB-related morbidity and mortality and was a cost-effective treatment strategy.

Use of anti-viral therapies in hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the United Arab Emirates: a cost-effectiveness and health-care resource use analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study attempts to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the antiviral remdesivir, as recommended in the 2021 COVID treatment guidelines for the United Arab Emirates, compared to standard of care (SOC), but also favipiravir (FAVI), which was also recommended for the treatment of hospitalized COVID patients. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model was built using published efficacy data for RDV, FAVI and SOC as well as local epidemiology data. The outcomes measured included hospital bed days averted, mortality, costs and cost per outcome over one year. One-way, probabilistic and scenario analyses were undertaken to reflect uncertainty in the estimates. RESULTS: When modelled over one year, the results indicated that treatment of adults in need of supplemental oxygen with RDV + SOC could result in 11,338 fewer general ward bed days, 7,003 fewer ICU days and 5,451 fewer ICU + MIV bed days compared to SOC alone and similar results when compared with FAVI + SOC. The model results also showed that there were 374 fewer deaths associated with the use of RDV + SOC compared to SOC alone. The model also estimates substantial potential cost-savings associated with RDV + SOC treatment compared with SOC alone (USD 3,454 per patient). The results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the model was sensitive to estimates of length of stay and the cost of hospitalization. Despite this, the model predicted cost-savings in all scenarios versus all comparators. CONCLUSIONS: The model estimated that using RDV + SOC could result in substantial reductions in HCRU and cost savings regardless of the comparator. However, it should be noted that reliable clinical information on FAVI was limited therefore it is challenging to interpret these results. All the potential benefits modelled here for RDV + SOC can have implications not only for the health of the UAE population but for improving hospital capacity to deal with other conditions.

Alignment of Physician-Stated vs Clinically Derived Reference Fibrosis Score in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis: A Real-World European Survey.

Objective: Stratifying disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is essential for appropriate treatment and long-term management. Liver biopsy is the reference standard for fibrosis severity in NASH, but less invasive methods are used, eg, Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), for which reference thresholds for no/early fibrosis and advanced fibrosis are available. We compared subjective physician assessment of NASH fibrosis versus reference thresholds to understand classification in a real-world setting. Methods: Data were drawn from Adelphi Real World NASH Disease Specific ProgrammeTM conducted in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK in 2018. Physicians (diabetologists, gastroenterologists, hepatologists) completed questionnaires for five consecutive NASH patients presenting for routine care. Physician-stated fibrosis score (PSFS) based on available information was compared with clinically defined reference fibrosis stage (CRFS) determined retrospectively using VCTE and FIB-4 data and eight reference thresholds. Results: One thousand two hundred and eleven patients had VCTE (n = 1115) and/or FIB-4 (n = 524). Depending on thresholds, physicians underestimated severity in 16-33% (FIB-4) and 27-50% of patients (VCTE). Using VCTE ≥12.2, diabetologists, gastroenterologists and hepatologists underestimated disease severity in 35%, 32%, and 27% of patients, respectively, and overestimated fibrosis in 3%, 4%, and 9%, respectively (p = 0.0083 across specialties). Hepatologists and gastroenterologists had higher liver biopsy rates than diabetologists (52%, 56%, 47%, respectively). Conclusion: PSFS did not consistently align with CRFS in this NASH real-world setting. Underestimation was more common than overestimation, potentially leading to undertreatment of patients with advanced fibrosis. More guidance on interpreting test results when classifying fibrosis is needed, thereby improving management of NASH.

Modeling the Potential Impact of Remdesivir Treatment for Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia on Healthcare Resource Use and Direct Hospital Costs: A Hypothetical Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. Saudi Arabia was significantly impacted by COVID-19. In March 2021, 381,000 cases were reported with 6539 deaths. This study attempts to quantify the impact of remdesivir on healthcare costs in Saudi Arabia, in terms of intensive care unit admissions, mechanical ventilation, and death prevention. METHODS: A forecasting model was designed to estimate the impact of remdesivir on the capacity of intensive care units and healthcare costs with patients requiring low flow oxygen therapy. The forecasting model was applied in the Saudi context with a 20-week projection between 1 February and 14 June, 2021. Model inputs were collected from published global and Saudi literature, available forecasting resources, and expert opinions. Three scenarios were assumed: the effective pandemic infection rate (Rt) remains at 1, the Rt increases up to 1.2, and the Rt declines from 1 to 0.8 over the study period. RESULTS: The model estimated that the use of remdesivir in hospitalized patients, in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, could prevent between 1520 and 3549 patient transfers to intensive care units and mechanical ventilation, prevent between 815 and 1582 deaths, and make potential cost savings between $US154 million and $US377 million owing to the reduction in intensive care unit capacity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment with remdesivir may improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden on healthcare resources during this pandemic.

Real-world management of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis differs from clinical practice guideline recommendations and across regions.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite availability of diagnostic and management reference guidelines outlining standard of care for patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), national and regional guidelines are lacking, resulting in variations in patient management between regions. We retrospectively analyzed patient characteristics and management data from the Adelphi Real World NASH Disease Specific Programme™ for patients with NASH in the EU5, Canada, and the Middle East to identify gaps between real-world practice and that advocated by reference guidelines, irrespective of clinician awareness or consultation of guidelines. METHODS: We performed an analysis of physicians (hepatologists, gastroenterologists, diabetologists) and their patients diagnosed with NASH. Physicians completed patient record forms for the next 5 consulting patients, collecting information on patient care, including diagnosis and disease management. RESULTS: A total of 429 physicians provided data for 2,267 patients with NASH (EU5, n = 1,844; Canada, n = 130; Middle East, n = 293). Patient age, physician-defined fibrosis stage, comorbidities and symptoms, and diagnostic testing practices highlighted statistically significant differences across regions. Substantial disconnects between reference guidelines and real-world practice were observed. Use of liver function tests, non-invasive tests (e.g. ultrasound and transient elastography), and tests to exclude other conditions was suboptimal. Although lifestyle advice was widely provided, patients were less commonly referred to diet, exercise, and lifestyle specialists. Two-thirds of patients were receiving off-label treatment for NASH or associated underlying conditions with the aim of improving NASH, most commonly statins, metformin, and vitamin E. CONCLUSION: Real-world NASH management approaches differ across regions and from proposed standard of care represented by reference multidisciplinary guidelines. Establishment and awareness of, and adherence to regional and national guidelines may improve identification and management of patients with NASH and potentially improve outcomes in this population. LAY SUMMARY: Although reference guidelines are available to guide the management of patients with NASH, these are not widely used and there is a lack of national guidelines. Our study shows how clinical practice in the EU, Canada, and Middle East differs from proposed standard of care, particularly relating to how patients are diagnosed and treated. Wider establishment of, awareness of, and reference to guidelines may improve how physicians identify and manage patients with NASH.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening for Hepatitis C Virus in Iraq in the Era of Simplified Testing and Treatment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Recent advances in hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostic testing methods allow for a one-stop simplified 'test and cure' approach. The cost effectiveness of incorporating this simplified approach into HCV screening in Iraq remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different HCV testing and diagnostic approaches, and screening strategies in Iraq from a health service perspective. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using a hybrid model comprising a screening decision tree linked to a lifetime Markov model to estimate outcomes in HCV-infected people. Cost and utility estimates were sourced from the published literature and expert guidance provided by clinicians and policy makers in Iraq. Cost estimates were reported in 2019 USD or 2019 Iraqi Dinar and both costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually. RESULTS: Strategies using a simplified approach were found to be cost saving in addition to improving patient outcomes when compared with a standard testing and diagnostic approach. When considering risk-based screening, a simplified approach was associated with a total cost saving of Iraqi Dinar 4375 billion (USD 3.7 billion) and per patient life-year and quality-adjusted life-year gains of 0.30 and 0.55, compared with a standard approach. Benefits and cost savings were driven by a 32.2% and 23.6% reduction in the incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Estimated benefits and cost savings increased under total population screening. All screening and testing and diagnostic approaches were cost effective compared with a no screening scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the detection of HCV combined with a simplified one-stop testing and diagnostic approach represents an opportunity to reduce the burden of HCV in Iraq and may play a significant role in meeting World Health Organisation HCV elimination targets.

Clinical and economic burden of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Middle East (ME) has a high prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), driven by obesity and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Studies in Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) predict an escalating impact of NAFLD/NASH, particularly advanced fibrosis due to NASH (AF-NASH), increasing cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. The scale of this burden in other ME countries is unknown with no reports of NAFLD/NASH healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) or costs. We estimated the clinical and economic burden of NAFLD/NASH in KSA, UAE and Kuwait. METHODS: Markov models populated with country-specific obesity and T2DM prevalence data estimated numbers and progression of NAFLD/NASH patients from 2018 to 2030. Model inputs, assumptions and outputs were collected from literature, national statistics, and expert consensus. RESULTS: Over 13 years, the KSA model estimated cases increasing as follows: patients with fibrosis F0-3 doubled to 2.5 m, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma trebled to 212,000; liver failure or transplant patients increased four-fold to 4,086 and liver-related death escalated from < 10,000 to > 200,000. Similar trends occurred in UAE and Kuwait. Discounted lifetime costs of NASH standard-care increased totaling USD40.41 bn, 1.59 bn and 6.36 bn in KSA, UAE (Emiratis only) and Kuwait, respectively. NASH-related costs in 2019 comprised, respectively, 5.83%, 5.80% and 7.66% of national healthcare spending. CONCLUSIONS: NASH, especially AF-NASH, should be considered a higher priority in ME Public Health policy. Our analyses should inform health policy makers to mitigate the enormity of this escalating regional burden.

Hepatitis B care pathway in Jordan: current situation, gaps and recommended actions.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a worldwide public health problem. The last major review of the HBV care pathway in the Middle East was published in 2011. This article aims to assess the current situation of the HBV care pathway in Jordan, identify gaps and barriers and recommend initiatives that could be taken to improve disease management across all stages of the care pathway. METHODS: A Delphi process was used between February and October 2017, including a literature review (PubMed and Google Scholar) for published articles on HBV in Jordan, followed by individual interviews with various healthcare professionals and group discussions with leading Jordanian hepatologists and gastroenterologists to provide context to the results of the literature review. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The national prevalence of HBV is estimated to be around 2.4% and has declined from 9.9% in the pre-vaccination era. There is limited data on the burden of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the country. Awareness of various aspects of the disease is considered low among the general population and medium among primary care providers. There are several mandated national screening structures, however, established protocols for those that test positive and subsequent linkage-to-care are not optimal. In conclusion, significant improvements have been made in the past 30 years in Jordan in terms of decline in HBV prevalence. However, efforts must be made by all key stakeholders to optimise screening and linkage-to-care of patients and reduce both morbidity and mortality in the country.