The Council of State Governments Justice Center Approach to Increasing Risk-Level Consistency in the Application of Risk Assessment Instruments.

Correctional and forensic mental health settings potentially have multiple risk assessment instruments administered on a single client. Because of the various methods of determining risk categories, risk-level consistency can become an issue. The Council of State Governments Justice Center developed a Five-Level System that can be applied to most risk assessment instruments. Using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised and two created risk assessment instruments, the present study assessed if the Five-Level System (vs. normative percentile categories) demonstrated greater agreement between the two instruments, and, if so, the percentage of greater agreement. The Five-Level System demonstrated 4% to 5% greater agreement for both risk-level placement and recidivism rates. The implications of this greater consistency among risk assessment instruments is an increased fairness in making risk-level assignments.

Taking the Bite out of Mosquito Bites: The Role of Perceived Risk.

The present study examined how dimensions of perceived risk contributed to mosquito avoidance behaviors in a flood-prone area. Mosquito avoidance behaviors were classified into proactive (i.e. used repellant sources) and withdrawal/reactive (i.e. reduced outside activities) behaviors. After controlling for level of mosquito bites, increased scores for above normal perceived risk were associated with withdrawal/reactive avoidance behaviors; whereas, increased scores for normal perceived risk were associated with proactive avoidance behaviors. Efforts to improve mosquito avoidance behaviors should distinguish the type of perceived risk and the type of avoidance behavior. Greater congruence between perceived risk (i.e. normal risk of mosquito-borne illnesses) and avoidance behaviors (i.e. planning avoidance behaviors) will increase the effectiveness of education programs for disease prevention.

Service Needs Inventory: Development, reliability, and preliminary validity.

Although measures for assessing mental health functioning and criminogenic need exist independently, there remains a need for an integrated measure that assesses both constructs simultaneously. The Service Needs Inventory (SNI) was developed to identify aspects of mental health functioning and criminogenic needs of criminal justice-involved persons with mental illness (CJ-PMI). In this multistudy series, Studies 1 (n = 66 male probationers) and 2 (n = 185 male probationers) conducted item analysis and reliability analysis of the eight SNI subscales: Criminal History, Antisocial Attitudes and Associates, Positive Psychotic Symptomology, Social Functioning, Social Networking, Substance Abuse, Negative Affect, and Traumatic History. The SNI was reduced from 197 to 158 items and internal consistency values for the subscales ranged from .76 to .93 in Study 1. In Study 2 the SNI was further reduced from 158 to 94 items; all original subscales were retained, and internal consistency values for the subscales ranged from .60 to .84. Test-retest reliability for the measure over a 2-week interval was high (r = .91). Study 3 (n = 66 participants from Study 1) provided preliminary examination of concurrent validity with Pearson's correlation coefficients demonstrating medium to large associations (r = .41-.67) with their respective reference measure. It is anticipated that the SNI can be used for research as well as clinical use in a variety of forensic and correctional settings to increase the efficiency of assessment procedures and effectively identify service needs of CJ-PMI. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of Attribution-Based Scales Associated With Proactive, Reactive, and Acquisitive Offending.

This study outlines the development of attribution scales to assess the antecedent processes of proactive, reactive, and acquisitive offending. Empirical keying, internal consistency, and item performance were the three test development strategies. Six samples (total N = 1,527) from parole, university, probation, and prison were used. The Proactive scale (10 items) reflected coldness and distance between offender and victims, the Reactive scale (10 items) reflected recklessness and excuses for violent behavior, and the Acquisitive scale (15 items) reflected less negative views of crime and choices. Convergent and discriminant validities were demonstrated by the Proactive scale stronger correlations with planning items, the Reactive scale stronger correlations with affective and person-based items, and the Acquisitive scale stronger correlations with other-based motives. Linking Proactive, Reactive, and Acquisitive scales to an offense provides psychological meaning that can benefit assessment and interventions.

Risk assessment tool floundering? Let's ask the client to self-predict.

Self-prediction by criminal justice involved clients has not been typically implemented in risk assessment procedures, yet clients have unique self-knowledge that may add to the assessment of risk. The Transition Inventory is an eight scale self-prediction measure that addresses areas that are a precursor to antisocial and criminal activity (e.g., "Drugs or alcohol will be a problem for me"). The Transition Inventory was administered to 131 paroled clients (primary drug-related offenses), 104 of whom were of minority/ethnic status. Predictive validity was demonstrated by the Transition Inventory incrementally predicting supervision failure. Individual scale construct validity was demonstrated by predicting later assessed corresponding measures, with the Leisure scale having the most robust predictive relationship. Self-prediction may promote greater predictability and stronger client engagement in the assessment process.

A Principled Approach to the Construction of Risk Assessment Categories: The Council of State Governments Justice Center Five-Level System.

Consistent risk category placement of criminal justice clients across instruments will improve the communication of risk. Efforts coordinated by the Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center led to the development of a principled (i.e., a system based on a given set of procedures) method of developing risk assessment levels. An established risk assessment instrument (Level of Service Inventory-Revised [LSI-R]) was used to assess the risk-level concordance of the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system. Specifically, concordance was assessed by matching the defining characteristics of the data set with its distribution qualities and by the level/category similarity between the observed reoffending base rate and the statistical probability of reoffending. Support for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system was found through a probation data set (N = 24,936) having a greater proportion of offenders in the lower risk levels than a parole/community data set (N = 36,303). The statistical probabilities of reoffending in each CSG Justice Center system risk level had greater concordance to the observed Five-Level base rates than the base rates from the LSI-R original categories. The concordance evidence for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system demonstrates the ability of this system to place clients in appropriate risk levels.

An exploration of the symmetry between crime-causing and crime-reducing factors: Implications for delivery of offender services.

Both the Risk-Needs-Responsivity (RNR) and Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) risk assessment approaches assume that a strong relationship exists between crime-causing and crime reducing factors. Using a probation sample, the present article examines whether crime-causing and crime-reducing factors correspond. Probationers completed questionnaires where they were asked what factors were crime-causing and what factors were crime-reducing. Overall, the relationship between the crime-causing and crime-reducing factors was very weak-even after ruling out potential measurement and methodological artifacts (i.e., internal consistency, item stability, and acquiescent responding). Applied to an individual offender, the results suggest that conducting assessments and recommending interventions need not be bound by assumptions that risk factors for past crime must be targeted to reduce crime. New endeavors to develop causal and idiographic crime-reducing strategies warrant consideration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Can unstructured clinical risk judgment have incremental validity in the prediction of recidivism in a non-Western juvenile context?

Research has consistently shown that actuarial measures are superior to unstructured clinical judgments in predicting recidivism of offenders. However, in a non-Western context, clinical judgment may capture contextually relevant risk-related factors. The purpose of the current research is to investigate the incremental value of clinical risk judgment in a sample of Japanese youths. With a sample of 299 released youths, the relative accuracy of the actuarial predictor (Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory [YLS/CMI]) and unstructured clinical judgment (recommendation of placement by psychologists) was examined. Results show that an unstructured clinical judgment failed to add incremental variance to the actuarial measure in the prediction of future offenses. The current study results are similar to other studies from North America. Possible reasons why unstructured risk judgment did not add incrementally to the actuarial assessment of risk are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Predicting Treatment Attrition Among Seriously Violent Offenders: An Application of the Directionality Model.

Treatment completion by violent offenders results in fewer victims and less violence in society. As researchers and members of society, we have a compelling interest in finding ways to keep violent male offenders in effective treatment programs. This study examines file-rated predictors of treatment attrition from an institutionally based program for persistently violent offenders. Each of the three prediction models of institutionally based treatment attrition included the predictors of motivation for assistance and prior treatment dosage: (a) the past criminal behavior model, (b) the recent antisocial behavior model, and (c) the non-antisocial instability model. Recent antisocial behavior did not improve the prediction of treatment attrition over the past criminal behavior model. Motivation for assistance did not make a contribution in the recent antisocial behavior or the non-antisocial instability models while prior treatment dosage consistently contributed to the prediction of attrition across the models. Recent non-antisocial behavior is important to offender treatment attrition.

A cross-validation of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) among Japanese juvenile offenders.

The main purpose of the current research is to examine the applicability of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Japanese juvenile offender population. Three hundred eighty-nine youths who were released from the five Juvenile Classification Homes were followed for approximately one and half years. Results show that the YLS/CMI total score significantly predict recidivism. Survival time analysis demonstrates that the YLS/CMI total score also significantly predicted faster time to recidivism. The overall findings support adequate predictive validity of the YLS/CMI total score, but subscales lacked content representativeness and predictive validity in this sample. Canadian and Japanese cultural differences in criminal history and substance abuse are contributors to the lack of content representativeness.

Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: in search of mechanisms of change.

The present study examined whether treatment change among offenders under community supervision would predict reductions in recidivism. The intervention program, based on cognitive-behavioral principles, focused on changing antisocial attitudes. Compared to a matched control group, the likelihood of reduced recidivism was 57% for the binary outcome and 70% for the multiple count outcome, after controlling for past program participation, propensity score, and days of opportunity to offend. The within-person pre-/postchange scores showed less promise in predicting recidivism. Only changes with a single antisocial associate measure, which were not central to the treatment program, predicted future recidivism. Caution must be used in the idiographic assessment of dynamic risk and treatment change.

Integrating risk context into risk assessments: the Risk Context Scale.

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community (M = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale. Four domains from the Risk Context Scale include Resource Engagement, Social Network Presence, Integration of Care, and Social Stability. Using mediation analysis, an initial static risk probability was altered up to 26% by accounting for risk context. Implications of the present results include a broader explanation of recidivism, offering intervention strategies, and further individualizing risk assessments.

Treating offenders with mental illness: a research synthesis.

The purpose of this research synthesis was to examine treatment effects across studies of the service providers to offenders with mental illness. Meta-analytic techniques were applied to 26 empirical studies obtained from a review of 12,154 research documents. Outcomes of interest in this review included measures of both psychiatric and criminal functioning. Although meta-analytic results are based on a small sample of available studies, results suggest interventions with offenders with mental illness effectively reduced symptoms of distress, improving offender's ability to cope with their problems, and resulted in improved behavioral markers including institutional adjustment and behavioral functioning. Furthermore, interventions specifically designed to meet the psychiatric and criminal justice needs of offenders with mental illness have shown to produce significant reductions in psychiatric and criminal recidivism. Finally, this review highlighted admission policies and treatment strategies (e.g., use of homework), which produced the most positive benefits. Results of this research synthesis are directly relevant for service providers in both criminal justice and mental health systems (e.g., psychiatric hospitals) as well as community settings by informing treatment strategies for the first time, which are based on empirical evidence. In addition, the implications of these results to policy makers tasked with the responsibility of designating services for this special needs population are highlighted.

Service user involvement in risk assessment and management: the Transition Inventory.

BACKGROUND: Drawing on self-prediction theory and the positive benefits of increasing health service user participation in risk assessments, the Transition Inventory (TI) was developed. It is an aid to the assessment of areas that people anticipate will be of difficulty in the next stage of transition, for example from open hospital to the community. AIMS: The aim of this paper is to determine reliability and convergent/discriminant validity data for the TI and its subscales, including behavioral impulsivity, social pressure, substance misuse, financial/employment, leisure, negative affect, interpersonal and family concerns and social alienation. METHODS: Eighty-eight male offenders coming towards the end of a period of imprisonment were asked to complete the TI. Their results were compared with the staff-rated Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA) scale, alcohol blame and causation of crime items. Comparisons with the MCAA's antisocial intent scale, which is a future-orientated scale, and the associates scale allowed for convergent/discriminant validity to be examined with TI scales. With a community offender sample, TI results were used to predict researcher ratings. RESULTS: The TI scales demonstrated adequate internal consistency. Overall, the MCAA's antisocial intent scale had higher correlations with the TI than with a nonfuture-orientated scale. TI scales also demonstrated convergent validity with other measures and preliminary predictive validity with researcher ratings. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The TI provides a way to increase service user involvement in the assessments that determine when and how they transfer to settings where they will have more independence.

Effect of symptom information and intelligence in dissimulation: an examination of faking response styles by inmates on the Basic Personality Inventory.

This study employed the Basic Personality Inventory (BPI) to differentiate various types of dis-simulation, including malingered psychopathology and faking good, by inmates. In particular, the role of intelligence in utilizing symptom information to successfully malinger was examined. On admission to a correctional facility, 161 inmates completed the BPI under standard instructions and then again under instructions to fake good (n = 55) or to malinger psychotic (n = 35), posttraumatic stress disorder (n = 36), or somatoform (n = 35) psychopathology. Unlike symptom information, intelligence evidenced some support for increasing inmates' effectiveness in malingering, although there was no relationship between higher intelligence and using symptom information to successfully evade detection. Overall, the BPI was more effective in detecting malingered psychopathology than faking good. Implications for the detection of dissimulation in correctional and forensic settings are discussed.

The effect of discordance among violence and general recidivism risk estimates on predictive accuracy.

INTRODUCTION: Previous research has shown that the prediction of short-term inpatient violence is negatively affected when clinicians' inter-rater agreement is low and when confidence in the estimate of risk is low. This study examined the effect of discordance between risk assessment instruments used to predict long-term general and violence risk in offenders. METHODS: The Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R), Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR) were the four risk-prediction instruments used to predict post-release general and violent recidivism within a sample of 209 offenders. RESULTS: The findings lend empirical support to the assumption that predictive accuracy is threatened where there is discordance between risk estimates. Discordance between instruments had the impact of reducing predictive accuracy for all instruments except the GSIR. Further, the influence of discordance was shown to be greater on certain instruments over others. Discordance had a moderating effect on both the PCL-R and LSI-R but not on the VRAG and GSIR. CONCLUSIONS: There is a distinct advantage when attempting to predict recidivism to employing measures such as the LSI-R, which includes dynamic variables and intervention-related criminogenic domains, over a measure purely of fixed characteristics, such as the GSIR; however, if there is discordance between the risk estimates, caution should be exercised and more reliance on the more static historically based instrument may be indicated.

Impression management and self-report among violent offenders.

Offenders are assumed by many to employ socially desirable responding (SDR) response styles when completing self-report measures. Contrary to expectations, prior research has shown that accounting for SDR in self-report measures of antisocial constructs does not improve the relationship with outcome. Despite this, many self-report measures reliably predict future criminal outcome criteria. The present research examines the relationship of SDR (self-deception and impression management) with self-reported antisocial attitudes and the outcome of criminal recidivism in a sample of violent offenders. Offenders high on impression management reported lower antisocial attitudes. However, when impression management was statistically partialed from antisocial attitudes, the relationship with recidivism tended to diminish, though not to a statistically significant degree. This finding, though hypothesized based on previous empirical findings, is contrary to the theoretical assumption that controlling for SDR should improve the relationship of self-report with outcome. The discussion centers on the implications of routinely removing impression management from self-report.

A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk.

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.

Issues in violent risk assessment: lessons learned and future directions.

Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most promising methodological innovation in violent risk assessment has been the introduction of the receiver operating characteristic to assess the efficiency of risk prediction. In the future, the tension between prediction and explanation of violence will need to be maintained while focusing on a mechanism-driven strategy of risk management.

The antisocial attitudes and associates of sex offenders.

INTRODUCTION: Meta-analyses have demonstrated that attitudes and associates (peer group behaviour) are among the best predictors of antisocial behaviour in offender populations. Research on sex offender attitudes has typically focused on sex-related content and not antisocial attitudes in general. This study investigates the antisocial attitudes of sex offenders by comparing them with non-sex offenders on responses to the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA). METHOD: The MCAA comprises two parts. Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends. Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent and Associates. Ninety sex offenders were compared with 119 nonsex offenders on their endorsement of the MCAA and criminal history. RESULTS: Sex offenders endorsed fewer antisocial attitudes, reported fewer criminal friends and had fewer incarcerations than did non-sex offenders. Rapists endorsed antisocial attitudes more than did child molesters and incest offenders. However, these differences disappeared on controlling for age. A finding of fewer previous incarcerations among sex offenders was robust even controlling for age. CONCLUSION: The MCAA appears to be a reliable and valid instrument with sex offender samples. General antisocial attitudes appear to have a similar relationship with criminal history for both sex offenders and non-sex offenders, and should not be ignored in future studies or clinical practice. While a general sense of entitlement was not associated with sex offending per se, its stronger association with incarceration among sex offenders than non-sex offenders might suggest that this has the potential for identifying an important, perhaps more serious sub-group of sex offenders.