Evaluating sustainable development policies in rural coastal economies.

Sustainable development (SD) policies targeting marine economic sectors, designed to alleviate poverty and conserve marine ecosystems, have proliferated in recent years. Many developing countries are providing poor fishing households with new fishing boats (fishing capital) that can be used further offshore as a means to improve incomes and relieve fishing pressure on nearshore fish stocks. These kinds of policies are a marine variant of traditional SD policies focused on agriculture. Here, we evaluate ex ante economic and environmental impacts of provisions of fishing and agricultural capital, with and without enforcement of fishing regulations that prohibit the use of larger vessels in nearshore habitats. Combining methods from development economics, natural resource economics, and marine ecology, we use a unique dataset and modeling framework to account for linkages between households, business sectors, markets, and local fish stocks. We show that the policies investing capital in local marine fisheries or agricultural sectors achieve income gains for targeted households, but knock-on effects lead to increased harvest of nearshore fish, making them unlikely to achieve conservation objectives in rural coastal economies. However, pairing an agriculture stimulus with increasing enforcement of existing fisheries' regulations may lead to a win-win situation. While marine-based policies could be an important tool to achieve two of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (alleviate poverty and protect vulnerable marine resources), their success is by no means assured and requires consideration of land and marine socioeconomic linkages inherent in rural economies.

Ocean currents and the population genetic signature of fish migrations.

Animal migrations are a fascinating and global phenomenon, yet they are often difficult to study and sometimes poorly understood. Here, we build on classic ecological theory by hypothesizing that some enigmatic spawning migrations across coastal marine habitats can be inferred from the population genetic signature of larval dispersal by ocean currents. We test this assumption by integrating spatially realistic simulations of alternative spawning migration routes, associated patterns of larval dispersal, and associated variation in the population genetic structure of eastern Australian sea mullet (Mugil cephalus). We then use simulation results to assess the implications of alternative spawning destinations for larval replenishment, and we contrast simulated against measured population genetic variation. Both analyses suggest that the spawning migrations of M. cephalus in eastern Australia are likely to be localized (approximately 100 km along the shore), and that spawning is likely to occur in inshore waters. Our conclusions are supported by multiple lines of evidence available through independent studies, but they challenge the more traditional assumption of a single, long-distance migration event with subsequent offshore spawning in the East Australian Current. More generally, our study operationalizes classic theory on the relationship between fish migrations, ocean currents, and reproductive success. However, rather than confirming the traditionally assumed adaptation of migratory behavior to dominant ocean current flow, our findings support the concept of a genetically measurable link between fish migrations and local oceanographic conditions, specifically water temperature and coastal retention of larvae. We believe that future studies using similar approaches for high resolution and spatially realistic ecological-genetic scenario testing can help rapidly advance our understanding of key ecological processes in many other marine species.

Individual and Population Benefits of Marine Reserves for Reef Sharks.

No-take marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly applied tool to reduce human fishing impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. However, conservation outcomes of MPAs for mobile and long-lived predators such as sharks are highly variable. Here, we use empirical animal tracking data from 459 individual sharks and baited remote underwater video surveys undertaken in 36 countries to construct an empirically supported individual-based model that estimates the conservation effectiveness of MPAs for five species of coral reef-associated sharks (Triaenodon obesus, Carcharhinus melanopterus, Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, Carcharhinus perezi, and Ginglymostoma cirratum). We demonstrate how species-specific individual movement traits can contribute to fishing mortality of sharks found within MPAs as they move outside to adjacent fishing grounds. We discovered that the world's officially recorded coral reef-based managed areas (with a median width of 9.4 km) would need to be enforced as strict no-take MPAs and up to 5 times larger to expect protection of the majority of individuals of the five investigated reef shark species. The magnitude of this effect depended on local abundances and fishing pressure, with MPAs required to be 1.6-2.6 times larger to protect the same number of Atlantic and Caribbean species, which occur at lower abundances than similar species in the western Pacific. Furthermore, our model was used to quantify partially substantial reductions (>50%) in fishing mortality resulting from small increases in MPA size, allowing us to bridge a critical gap between traditional conservation planning and fisheries management. Overall, our results highlight the challenge of relying on abundance data alone to ensure that estimates of shark conservation impacts of MPAs follow the precautionary approach.

Incorporating larval dispersal into MPA design for both conservation and fisheries.

Larval dispersal by ocean currents is a critical component of systematic marine protected area (MPA) design. However, there is a lack of quantitative methods to incorporate larval dispersal in support of increasingly diverse management objectives, including local population persistence under multiple types of threats (primarily focused on larval retention within and dispersal between protected locations) and benefits to unprotected populations and fisheries (primarily focused on larval export from protected locations to fishing grounds). Here, we present a flexible MPA design approach that can reconcile multiple such potentially conflicting management objectives by balancing various associated treatments of larval dispersal information. We demonstrate our approach based on alternative dispersal patterns, combinations of threats to populations, management objectives, and two different optimization strategies (site vs. network-based). Our outcomes highlight a consistently high effectiveness in selecting priority locations that are self-replenishing, inter-connected, and/or important larval sources. We find that the opportunity to balance these three dispersal attributes flexibly can help not only to prevent meta-population collapse, but also to ensure effective fisheries recovery, with average increases in the number of recruits at fishing grounds at least two times higher than achieved by standard habitat-based or ad-hoc MPA designs. Future applications of our MPA design approach should therefore be encouraged, specifically where management tools other than MPAs are not feasible.

Marine Reserve Targets to Sustain and Rebuild Unregulated Fisheries.

Overfishing threatens the sustainability of coastal marine biodiversity, especially in tropical developing countries. To counter this problem, about 200 governments worldwide have committed to protecting 10%-20% of national coastal marine areas. However, associated impacts on fisheries productivity are unclear and could weaken the food security of hundreds of millions of people who depend on diverse and largely unregulated fishing activities. Here, we present a systematic theoretic analysis of the ability of reserves to rebuild fisheries under such complex conditions, and we identify maximum reserve coverages for biodiversity conservation that do not impair long-term fisheries productivity. Our analysis assumes that fishers have no viable alternative to fishing, such that total fishing effort remains constant (at best). We find that realistic reserve networks, which protect 10%-30% of fished habitats in 1-20 km wide reserves, should benefit the long-term productivity of almost any complex fishery. We discover a "rule of thumb" to safeguard against the long-term catch depletion of particular species: individual reserves should export 30% or more of locally produced larvae to adjacent fishing grounds. Specifically on coral reefs, where fishers tend to overexploit species whose dispersal distances as larvae exceed the home ranges of adults, decisions on the size of reserves needed to meet the 30% larval export rule are unlikely to compromise the protection of resident adults. Even achieving the modest Aichi Target 11 of 10% "effective protection" can then help rebuild depleted catch. However, strictly protecting 20%-30% of fished habitats is unlikely to diminish catch even if overfishing is not yet a problem while providing greater potential for biodiversity conservation and fishery rebuilding if overfishing is substantial. These findings are important because they suggest that doubling or tripling the only globally enforced marine reserve target will benefit biodiversity conservation and higher fisheries productivity where both are most urgently needed.

The Ecological Role of Sharks on Coral Reefs.

Sharks are considered the apex predator of coral reefs, but the consequences of their global depletion are uncertain. Here we explore the ecological roles of sharks on coral reefs and, conversely, the importance of reefs for sharks. We find that most reef-associated shark species do not act as apex predators but instead function as mesopredators along with a diverse group of reef fish. While sharks perform important direct and indirect ecological roles, the evidence to support hypothesised shark-driven trophic cascades that benefit corals is weak and equivocal. Coral reefs provide some functional benefits to sharks, but sharks do not appear to favour healthier reef environments. Restoring populations of sharks is important and can yet deliver ecological surprise.