Agronomic monsoon onset definitions to support planting decisions for rainfed rice in Bangladesh.

The usability gaps between climate information producers and users have always been an issue in climate services. This study aims to tackle the gap for rice farmers in Bangladesh by exploring the potential value of tailored agronomic monsoon onset definitions. Summer aman rice is primarily cultivated under rainfed conditions, and farmers rely largely on monsoon rainfall and its onset for crop establishment. However, farmers' perception of the arrival of sufficient rains does not necessarily coincide with meteorological definitions of monsoon onset. Therefore, localized agronomic definitions of monsoon onset need to be developed and evaluated to advance in the targeted actionable climate forecast. We analyzed historical daily rainfall from four locations across a north-south gradient in Bangladesh and defined dynamic definitions of monsoon onset based on a set of local parameters. The agronomic onset definition was evaluated in terms of attainable yields simulated by a rice simulation model compared to results obtained using conventional meteorological onset parameters defined by the amount of rainfall received and static onset dates. Our results show that average simulated yields increase up to 7 - 9% and probabilities of getting lower yields are reduced when the year-to-year varying dynamic onset is used over the two drier locations under fully rainfed conditions. It is mainly due to earlier transplanting dates, avoiding the impact of drought experienced with early monsoon demise. However, no yield increases are observed over the two wetter locations. This study shows the potential benefits of generating "localized and translated" climate predictions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-024-03736-z.

Automated in-season rice crop mapping using Sentinel time-series data and Google Earth Engine: A case study in climate-risk prone Bangladesh.

High-resolution mapping of rice fields is crucial for understanding and managing rice cultivation in countries like Bangladesh, particularly in the face of climate change. Rice is a vital crop, cultivated in small scale farms that contributes significantly to the economy and food security in Bangladesh. Accurate mapping can facilitate improved rice production, the development of sustainable agricultural management policies, and formulation of strategies for adapting to climatic risks. To address the need for timely and accurate rice mapping, we developed a framework specifically designed for the diverse environmental conditions in Bangladesh. We utilized Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time-series data to identify transplantation and peak seasons and employed the multi-Otsu automatic thresholding approach to map rice during the peak season (April-May). We also compared the performance of a random forest (RF) classifier with the multi-Otsu approach using two different data combinations: D1, which utilizes data from the transplantation and peak seasons (D1 RF) and D2, which utilizes data from the transplantation to the harvest seasons (D2 RF). Our results demonstrated that the multi-Otsu approach achieved an overall classification accuracy (OCA) ranging from 61.18% to 94.43% across all crop zones. The D2 RF showed the highest mean OCA (92.15%) among the fourteen crop zones, followed by D1 RF (89.47%) and multi-Otsu (85.27%). Although the multi-Otsu approach had relatively lower OCA, it proved effective in accurately mapping rice areas prior to harvest, eliminating the need for training samples that can be challenging to obtain during the growing season. In-season rice area maps generated through this framework are crucial for timely decision-making regarding adaptive management in response to climatic stresses and forecasting area-wide productivity. The scalability of our framework across space and time makes it particularly suitable for addressing field data scarcity challenges in countries like Bangladesh and offers the potential for future operationalization.

Implementing conjunctive management of water resources for irrigation development: A framework applied to the Southern Plain of Western Nepal.

Climate variability and insufficient irrigation are primary constraints to stable and higher agricultural productivity and food security in Nepal. Agriculture is the largest global freshwater user, and integration of surface- and ground-water use is frequently presented as an strategy for increasing efficiency as well as climate change adaptation. However, conjunctive management (CM) planning often ignores demand-side requirements and a broader set of sustainable development considerations, including ecosystem health and economics of different development strategies. While there is generic understanding of conjunctive use, detailed technical knowhow to realize the CM is lacking in Nepal. This article presents a holistic framework through literature reviews, stakeholders consultations and expert interviews for assessing CM and implementation prospects from a systems-level perspective. We demonstrate the framework through a case study in Western Nepal, where climatic variability and a lack of irrigation are key impediments to increased agricultural productivity and sustainable development. Results show that knowledge of water resources availability is good and that of water demand low in the Western Terai. Additional and coordinated investments are required to improve knowledge gaps as well as access to irrigation. There is therefore a need to assess water resources availability, water access, use and productivity, to fill the knowledge gaps in order to pave pathways for CM. This paper also discusses some strategies to translate prospects of conjunctive management into implementation.

Farm size limits agriculture's poverty reduction potential in Eastern India even with irrigation-led intensification.

CONTEXT: Millions of people living in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) of India engage in agriculture to support their livelihoods yet are income poor, and food and climate insecure. To address these challenges, policymakers and development programs invest in irrigation-led agricultural intensification. However, the evidence for agricultural intensification to lift farmers' incomes above the poverty line remains largely anecdotal. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to use a large household survey (n = 15,572; rice: 8244, wheat: 7328; 2017/18) to assess the link between agricultural intensification and personal daily incomes from farming (FPDI) in the rice-wheat systems of the EGP - the dominant cropping system of the region. METHODS: We use the Intensification Benefit Index (IBI), a measure that relates farm size and household size to FPDI, to assess how daily incomes from rice-wheat production change with irrigation-led intensification across the EGP. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Relative to the international poverty line of 1.90 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)$ day-1 and accounting for variations in HH size in the analysis, we found that small farm sizes limit the potential for agricultural intensification from irrigation to transform the poverty status of households in the bottom three quartiles of the IBI. The estimated median FPDI of households with intensified systems in the bottom three quartiles is only 0.51 PPP$ day-1 (a 0.15 PPP$ gain). The median FPDI increases to 2.10 PPP$ day-1 for households in the upper quartile of the IBI distribution (a 0.30 PPP$ gain). Irrigation-led agricultural intensification of rice-wheat systems in the EGP may provide substantial benefits for resilience to climatic change and food security but achieving meaningful poverty reduction will require complementary investments. SIGNIFICANCE: Transforming the poverty status of most smallholder farmers in the EGP requires diversified portfolios of rural on- and off-farm income-generating opportunities. While bolstering food- and climate security, agronomic intervention programs should consider smallholders' limited monetary incentives to invest in intensification. Irrigation-led agricultural intensification programs and policies should explicitly account for the heterogeneity in household resources, irrigation levels, and degree of dependence on agricultural income.

Reduced tillage and crop diversification can improve productivity and profitability of rice-based rotations of the Eastern Gangetic Plains.

Intensive rice (Oryza sativa)-based cropping systems in south Asia provide much of the calorie and protein requirements of low to middle-income rural and urban populations. Intensive tillage practices demand more resources, damage soil quality, and reduce crop yields and profit margins. Crop diversification along with conservation agriculture (CA)-based management practices may reduce external input use, improve resource-use efficiency, and increase the productivity and profitability of intensive cropping systems. A field study was conducted on loamy soil in a sub-tropical climate in northern Bangladesh to evaluate the effects of three tillage options and six rice-based cropping sequences on grain, calorie, and protein yields and gross margins (GM) for different crops and cropping sequences. The three tillage options were: (1) conservation agriculture (CA) with all crops in sequences untilled, (2) alternating tillage (AT) with the monsoon season rice crop tilled but winter season crops untilled, and (3) conventional tillage (CT) with all crops in sequences tilled. The six cropping sequences were: rice-rice (R-R), rice-mung bean (Vigna radiata) (R-MB), rice-wheat (Triticum aestivum) (R-W), rice-maize (Zea mays) (R-M), rice-wheat-mung bean (R-W-MB), and rice-maize-mung bean (R-M-MB). Over three years of experimentation, the average monsoon rice yield was 8% lower for CA than CT, but the average winter crops yield was 13% higher for CA than CT. Systems rice equivalent yield (SREY) and systems calorie and protein yields were about 5%, 3% and 6%, respectively, higher under CA than CT; additionally, AT added approximately 1% more to these benefits. The systems productivity gain under CA and AT resulted in higher GM by 16% while reducing the labor and total production cost under CA than CT. The R-M rotation had higher SREY, calorie, protein yields, and GM by 24%, 26%, 66%, and 148%, respectively, than the predominantly practiced R-R rotation. The R-W-MB rotation had the highest SREY (30%) and second highest (118%) GM. Considering the combined effect of tillage and cropping system, CA with R-M rotation showed superior performance in terms of SREY, protein yield, and GM. The distribution of labor use and GM across rotations was grouped into four categories: R-W in low-low (low labor use and low GM), R-M in low-high (low labor use and high GM), R-W-MB and R-M-MB in high-high (high labor use and high GM) and R-R and R-MB in high-low (high labor use and low GM). In conclusion, CA performed better than CT in different winter crops and cropping systems but not in monsoon rice. Our results demonstrate the multiple benefits of partial and full CA-based tillage practices employed with appropriate crop diversification to achieve sustainable food security with greater calorie and protein intake while maximizing farm profitability of intensive rice-based rotational systems.

Performance of a hermetic device and neem (Azadirachta indica) in storing wheat seed: Evidence from participatory household trials in central Bangladesh.

Smallholder farmers in Bangladesh often use low-density polyethylene (LDPE) bags contained within woven polypropylene bags to store wheat seed during the summer monsoon that precedes winter season planting. High humidity and temperature during this period can encourage increased seed moisture and pests, thereby lowering seed quality. Following a farm household survey conducted to inform trial design, eighty farmers were engaged in an action research process in which they participated in designing and conducting trials comparing traditional and alternative seed storage methods over 30 weeks. Factorial treatments included comparison of hermetic SuperGrainbags® (Premium RZ) against LDPE bags, both with and without the addition of dried neem tree leaves (Azadirachta indica). SuperGrainbags® were more effective in maintaining seed moisture at acceptable levels close to pre-storage conditions than LDPE bags. Both seed germination and seedling coleoptile length were significantly greater in hermetic than LDPE bags. Neem had no effect on seed moisture, germination, or coleoptile length. SuperGrainbags® were also more effective in abating seed damage during storage, although inclusion of neem within LDPE bags also had significant damage. Quantification of seed predating insects and diseases suggested that SuperGrainbags® also suppressed Coleopteran pests and blackspot, the latter indicative of Fusarium graminearum. Conversely, where farmers used LDPE bags, neem also had an additional though limited pest suppressive effect. Post-storage treatment scoring by farmers revealed a strong preference for SuperGrainbags® and no preference differences for or against neem. This study demonstrates a process by which farmers can be involved in the participatory co-design and testing of alternative wheat storage options, and stresses the need to develop SuperGrainbag® supply chains so hermetic storage can be made widely available.

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach.

Crop fungal diseases constitute a major cause of yield loss. The development of crop disease monitoring and forecasting tools is an important effort to aid farmers in adapting to climate variability and change. Recognizing weather as a main driver of fungal disease outbreaks, this work assesses the climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, MoT) development in Asian wheat-producing countries. MOT was reported for the first time in Bangladesh in 2016 and could spread to other countries, provided that environmental conditions are suitable to spore development, distribution, and infection. With results from a generic infection model driven by air temperature and humidity, and motivated by the necessity to assess the potential distribution of MoT based on the response to weather drivers only, we quantify potential MOT infection events across Asia for the period 1980-2019. The results show a potential higher incidence of MOT in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and some areas of India, where the number of potential infection (NPI) events averaged up to 15 during wheat heading. Interannual trends show an increase in NPI over those three countries, which in turns show their higher interannual variability. Cold/dry conditions in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan appear to render them unlikely candidates for MOT establishment. The relationship between seasonal climate anomalies and NPI suggests a greater association with relative humidity than with temperature. These results could help to focus future efforts to develop management strategies where weather conditions are conducive for the establishment of MOT.

Impact of cropping system diversification on productivity and resource use efficiencies of smallholder farmers in south-central Bangladesh: a multi-criteria analysis.

Diversification of smallholder rice-based cropping systems has the potential to increase cropping system intensity and boost food security. However, impacts on resource use efficiencies (e.g., nutrients, energy, and labor) remain poorly understood, highlighting the need to quantify synergies and trade-offs among different sustainability indicators under on-farm conditions. In southern coastal Bangladesh, aman season rice is characterized by low inputs and low productivity. We evaluated the farm-level impacts of cropping system intensification (adding irrigated boro season rice) and diversification (adding chili, groundnut, mungbean, or lathyrus) on seven performance indicators (rice equivalent yield, energy efficiency, partial nitrogen productivity, partial potassium productivity, partial greenhouse gas footprint, benefit-cost ratio, and hired labor energy productivity) based on a comprehensive survey of 501 households. Indicators were combined into a multi-criteria performance index, and their scope for improvement was calculated by comparing an individual farmer's performance to top-performing farmers (highest 20%). Results indicate that the baseline system (single-crop aman season rice) was the least productive, while double cropped systems increased rice equivalent yield 72-217%. Despite gains in productivity, higher cropping intensity reduced resource use efficiencies due to higher inputs of fertilizer and energy, which also increased production costs, particularly for boro season rice. However, trade-offs were smaller for diversified systems including legumes, largely owing to lower N fertilizer inputs. Aman season rice had the highest multi-criteria performance index, followed by systems with mungbean and lathyrus, indicating the latter are promising options to boost food production and profitability without compromising sustainability. Large gaps between individual and top-performing farmers existed for each indicator, suggesting significant scope for improvement. By targeting indicators contributing most to the multi-criteria performance index (partial nitrogen productivity, energy efficiency, hired labor energy productivity), results suggest further sustainability gains can be achieved through future field research studies focused on optimizing management within diversified systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00795-3.

Biological nitrogen fixation and prospects for ecological intensification in cereal-based cropping systems.

The demand for nitrogen (N) for crop production increased rapidly from the middle of the twentieth century and is predicted to at least double by 2050 to satisfy the on-going improvements in productivity of major food crops such as wheat, rice and maize that underpin the staple diet of most of the world's population. The increased demand will need to be fulfilled by the two main sources of N supply - biological nitrogen (gas) (N2) fixation (BNF) and fertilizer N supplied through the Haber-Bosch processes. BNF provides many functional benefits for agroecosystems. It is a vital mechanism for replenishing the reservoirs of soil organic N and improving the availability of soil N to support crop growth while also assisting in efforts to lower negative environmental externalities than fertilizer N. In cereal-based cropping systems, legumes in symbiosis with rhizobia contribute the largest BNF input; however, diazotrophs involved in non-symbiotic associations with plants or present as free-living N2-fixers are ubiquitous and also provide an additional source of fixed N. This review presents the current knowledge of BNF by free-living, non-symbiotic and symbiotic diazotrophs in the global N cycle, examines global and regional estimates of contributions of BNF, and discusses possible strategies to enhance BNF for the prospective benefit of cereal N nutrition. We conclude by considering the challenges of introducing in planta BNF into cereals and reflect on the potential for BNF in both conventional and alternative crop management systems to encourage the ecological intensification of cereal and legume production.

Large-scale rollout of extension training in Bangladesh: Challenges and opportunities for gender-inclusive participation.

Despite the recognized importance of women's participation in agricultural extension services, research continues to show inequalities in women's participation. Emerging capacities for conducting large-scale extension training using information and communication technologies (ICTs) now afford opportunities for generating the rich datasets needed to analyze situational factors that affect women's participation. Data was recorded from 1,070 video-based agricultural extension training events (131,073 farmers) in four Administrative Divisions of Bangladesh (Rangpur, Dhaka, Khulna, and Rajshahi). The study analyzed the effect of gender of the trainer, time of the day, day of the week, month of the year, Bangladesh Administrative Division, and venue type on (1) the expected number of extension event attendees and (2) the odds of females attending the event conditioned on the total number of attendees. The study revealed strong gender specific training preferences. Several factors that increased total participation, decreased female attendance (e.g., male-led training event held after 3:30 pm in Rangpur). These findings highlight the dilemma faced by extension trainers seeking to maximize attendance at training events while avoiding exacerbating gender inequalities. The study concludes with a discussion of ways to mitigate gender exclusion in extension training by extending data collection processes, incorporating machine learning to understand gender preferences, and applying optimization theory to increase total participation while concurrently improving gender inclusivity.

A metafrontier approach and fractional regression model to analyze the environmental efficiency of alternative tillage practices for wheat in Bangladesh.

Among alternative tillage practices, conservation tillage (CT) is a prominent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy advocated in wheat cultivation, largely because of its low energy consumption and minimum soil disturbance during cultural operations. This paper examines the agricultural production and GHG emission trade-off of CT vis-à-vis traditional tillage (TT) on wheat farms of Bangladesh. Using a directional distance function approach, the maximum reduction in GHG emissions was searched for within all available tillage technology options, while increasing wheat production as much as possible. The underlying institutional, technical, and other socio-economic factors determining the efficient use of CT were analyzed using a fractional regression model. The average meta-efficiency score for permanent bed planting (PBP) and strip tillage (ST) was  0.89, while that achieved using power tiller operated seeders (PTOS) is 0.87. This indicates that with the given input sets, there is potential to reduce GHG emissions by about 11% for ST and PTOS; that potential is 13% for farmers using PTOS. The largest share of TT farmers cultivate wheat at lower meta-efficiency levels (0.65-0.70) compared to that observed with farmers practicing CT (0.75-0.80). Fractional regression model estimates indicate that an optimal, timely dose of fertilizers with a balanced dose of nutrients is required to reduce GHG emissions. To develop climate smart sustainable intensification strategies in wheat cultivation, it is important to educate farmers on efficient input management and CT together. Agricultural development programs should focus on addressing heterogeneities in nutrient management in addition to tillage options within CT.

Socio-cognitive constraints and opportunities for sustainable intensification in South Asia: insights from fuzzy cognitive mapping in coastal Bangladesh.

Appreciating and dealing with the plurality of farmers' perceptions and their contextual knowledge and perspectives of the functioning and performance of their agroecosystems-in other words, their 'mental models'-is central for appropriate and sustainable agricultural development. In this respect, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to eradicate poverty and food insecurity by 2030 by envisioning social inclusivity that incorporates the preferences and knowledge of key stakeholders, including farmers. Agricultural development interventions and policies directed at sustainable intensification (SI), however, do not sufficiently account for farmers' perceptions, beliefs, priorities, or interests. Considering two contrasting agroecological systems in coastal Bangladesh, we used a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM)-based simulation and sensitivity analysis of mental models of respondents of different farm types from 240 farm households. The employed FCM mental models were able to (1) capture farmers' perception of farming system concepts and relationships for each farm type and (2) assess the impact of external interventions (drivers) on cropping intensification and food security. We decomposed the FCM models' variance into the first-order sensitivity index (SVI) and total sensitivity index (TSI) using a winding stairs algorithm. Both within and outside polder areas, the highest TSIs (35-68%) were observed for effects of agricultural extension on changes in other concepts in the map, particularly food security and income (SI indicators), indicating the importance of extension programs for SI. Outside polders, drainage and micro-credit were also influential; within polders, the availability of micro-credit appears to affect farmer perceptions of SI indicators more than drainage. This study demonstrated the importance of reflection on the differing perspectives of farmers both within and outside polders to identify entry points for development interventions. In addition, the study underscores the need for micro-farming systems-level research to assess the context-based feasibility of introduced interventions as perceived by farmers of different farm types. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01342-y.

Factors contributing to farm-level productivity and household income generation in coastal Bangladesh's rice-based farming systems.

Large changes have taken place in smallholder farming systems in South Asia's coastal areas in recent decades, particularly related to cropping intensity, input availability, climate risks, and off-farm activities. However, few studies have investigated the extent to which these changes have impacted farm-level crop productivity, which is a key driver of food security and poverty in rainfed, low-input, rice-based systems. The objective of this study was to conduct an integrated assessment of variables related to socioeconomic status, farm characteristics, and crop management practices to understand the major factors influencing crop productivity and identify promising leverage points for sustainable development in coastal Bangladesh. Using a panel survey dataset of 32 variables from 502 farm households located within polder (coastal embankment) and outside polder systems during 2005-2015, we employed statistical factor analysis to characterize five independent latent factors named here as Farming Challenges, Economic Status, Crop Management Practices, Asset Endowment, and Farm Characteristics. The factor Farming Challenges explained the most variation among households (31%), with decreases observed over time, specifically households located outside polders. Individual variables contributing to this factor included perceived cyclone severity, household distance to main roads and input-output markets, cropping intensity, and access to extension services. The most important factors for increasing crop productivity on a household and per unit area basis were Asset Endowment and Crop Management Practices, respectively. The former highlights the need for increasing gross cropped area, which can be achieved through greater cropping intensity, while the latter was associated with increased fertilizer, labor, and pesticide input use. Despite the importance of these factors, household poverty trajectory maps showed that changes in off-farm income had played the strongest role in improving livelihoods in this coastal area. This study can help inform development efforts and policies for boosting farm-level crop productivity, specifically through agricultural intensification (higher cropping intensity combined with appropriate and efficient use of inputs) and expanding opportunities for off-farm income as key pathways to bring smallholder households out of poverty.

Visualising adoption processes through a stepwise framework: A case study of mechanisation on the Nepal Terai.

CONTEXT: The desire for agricultural mechanisation is mainstreaming across the Global South, yet there are limited tools through which to monitor and estimate progress made in pursuit of this. Despite Nepal enacting an agricultural development agenda focused on mechanisation to address issues of productivity, labour scarcity, inclusive economic growth and sustainability, it remains one of the few places in South Asia that is yet to see substantial agricultural mechanisation rates. We use this scenario as a case study to propose and investigate adoption processes. OBJECTIVE: This research aims to provide a baseline to understand progress made towards Agri-mechanisation on the Nepal Terai. Despite decades of promotional efforts, there are only limited comprehensive analyses of the status of agricultural mechanisation in Nepal that cover diverse machinery and go beyond binary adoption estimates, nor a framework to understand different types of (non-)adopters. METHODS: The applied non-binary 'Stepwise Process of Mechanisation' framework provides a systematic process for investigation of the status of agricultural mechanisation on the Nepal Terai. This framework is applied to representative survey data from 14 districts across 1569 households from Nepal's Plains (Terai) region. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that decades of activity have not yet led to the substantial closure of exposure gaps, nor sufficient ownership of machines that enables accessible fee-for-hire service provision. Exposure gaps were substantial in all machines, meaning current demonstration programs may not be achieving their targeted outcomes. Across nearly all machinery, a primary reason for limited progression to sustained adoption was a lack of service providers, a manifestation of limited machinery ownership, meaning current broad subsidy programs aimed at procurement may not be achieving intended outcomes. However, substantial pools of potential adopters and concentration of supply-side constraints highlight that with targeted intervention, rapid rural mechanisation is possible in the near future on the Nepal Terai. SIGNIFICANCE: This research provides a foundation on which to understand the progress made towards small holder agricultural mechanisation. For the first time in South Asia, a systematic analysis through a novel stepwise framework has clarified and updated the status of agricultural mechanisation on the Nepal Terai. This work also lays the foundation for future work to explore the drivers, implications and inclusiveness of agri-mechanisation, utilising the identified typologies, both in Nepal and more broadly where increased nuance in understanding the status of agricultural mechanisation is warranted.

Spatially explicit database on crop-livestock management, soil, climate, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential for all of Bangladesh.

This data article provides spatially explicit data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential at various administrative levels for the whole of Bangladesh. The results arising from analysis of this database are presented in research article "Quantifying opportunities for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation using big data from smallholder crop and livestock farmers across Bangladesh" [1]. We collected crop and livestock management data and associated soil and climatic data from variety of primary and secondary sources outlined below in our methodology. The datafiles on crops and livestock contain model outputs for three greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) and their global warming potential, which are linked, to the information on crop/livestock management, soil and climatic conditions presented in the supplementary data of the associated manuscript. The datafiles on mitigation potential contain district-level annual GHG mitigation potential by 2030 and 2050 segregated by different crops/livestock types and mitigation options. This dataset is useful for Bangladesh's GHG accounting from the agricultural sector, and can be used to update its nationally determined contributions. Administrative level emissions and mitigation potential estimates segregated by crop-livestock types and mitigation options are useful to prioritize agricultural research and development interventions consistent with food security and environmental goals and to organize agricultural extension and support services to better inform farmers on food production and move towards GHG mitigation goals.

Quantifying opportunities for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation using big data from smallholder crop and livestock farmers across Bangladesh.

Climate change is and will continue to have significant implications for agricultural systems. While adaptation to climate change should be the priority for smallholder production systems, adoption of cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture not only contributes to food security but also reduces the extent of climate change and future adaptation needs. Utilizing management data from 16,413 and 12,548 crop and livestock farmers and associated soil and climatic data, we estimated GHG emissions generated from crop and livestock production using crop and livestock models, respectively. Mitigation measures in crop and livestock production, their mitigation potential and cost/benefit of adoption were then obtained from literature review, stakeholder consultations and expert opinion. We applied the identified mitigation measures to a realistic scale of adoption scenario in the short- (2030) and long-term (2050). Our results were then validated through stakeholders consultations. Here, we present identified mitigation options, their mitigation potentials and cost or benefit of adoption in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). Based on our analysis, total GHG emissions from agricultural sector in Bangladesh for the year 2014-15 is 76.79 million tonne (Mt) carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in Bangladesh are approximately 86.87 and 100.44 Mt CO2e year-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Adoption of climate-smart crop and livestock management options to reduce emissions considering a realistic adoption scenario would offer GHG mitigation opportunities of 9.51 and 14.21 Mt CO2e year-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Of this mitigation potential, 70-75% can be achieved through cost-saving options that could benefit smallholder farmers. Realization of this potential mitigation benefit, however, largely depends on the degree to which supportive policies and measures can encourage farmers' adoption of the identified climate smart agricultural techniques. Therefore, government should focus on facilitating uptake of these options through appropriate policy interventions, incentive mechanisms and strengthening agricultural extension programs.

Factors affecting farmers' use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in South Asia.

Fertilizer, though one of the most essential inputs for increasing agricultural production, is a leading cause of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture, contributing significantly to global warming. Therefore, understanding factors affecting farmers' use of fertilizers is crucial to develop strategies to improve its efficient use and to minimize its negative impacts. Using data from 2528 households across the Indo-Gangetic Plains in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, this study examines the factors affecting farmers' use of organic and inorganic fertilizers for the two most important cereal crops - rice and wheat. Together, these crops provide the bulk of calories consumed in the region. As nitrogen (N) fertilizer is the major source of global warming and other environmental effects, we also examine the factors contributing to its overuse. We applied multiple regression models to understand the factors influencing the use of inorganic fertilizer, Heckman models to understand the likelihood and intensity of organic fertilizer (manure) use, and a probit model to examine the over-use of N fertilizer. Our results indicate that various socio-economic and geographical factors influence the use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in rice and wheat. Across the study sites, N fertilizer over-use is the highest in Haryana (India) and the lowest in Nepal. Across all locations, farmers reported a decline in manure application, concomitant with a lack of awareness of the principles of appropriate fertilizer management that can limit environmental externalities. Educational programs highlighting measures to improving nutrient-use-efficiency and reducing the negative externalities of N fertilizer over-use are proposed to address these problems.

Social-ecological analysis of timely rice planting in Eastern India.

Timely crop planting is a foundation for climate-resilient rice-wheat systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains-a global food insecurity and poverty hotspot. We hypothesize that the capacity of individual farmers to plant on time varies considerably, shaped by multifaceted enabling factors and constraints that are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, two complementary datasets were used to characterize drivers and decision processes that govern the timing of rice planting in this region. The first dataset was a large agricultural management survey (rice-wheat: n = 15,245; of which rice: n = 7597) from a broad geographic region that was analyzed by machine learning methods. The second dataset was a discussion-based survey (n = 112) from a more limited geography that we analyzed with graph theory tools to elicit nuanced information on planting decisions. By combining insights from these methods, we show for the first time that differences in rice planting times are primarily shaped by ecosystem and climate factors while social factors play a prominent secondary role. Monsoon onset, surface and groundwater availability, and land type determine village-scale mean planting times whereas, for resource-constrained farmers who tend to plant later ceteris paribus, planting is further influenced by access to farm machinery, seed, fertilizer, and labor. Also, a critical threshold for economically efficient pumping appears at a groundwater depth of around 4.5 m; below this depth, farmers do not irrigate and delay planting. Without collective action to spread risk through synchronous timely planting, ecosystem factors such as threats posed by pests and wild animals may further deter early planting by individual farmers. Accordingly, we propose a three-pronged strategy that combines targeted strengthening of agricultural input chains, agroadvisory development, and coordinated rice planting and wildlife conservation to support climate-resilient agricultural development in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.

Optimal design and setting of rotary strip-tiller blades to intensify dry season cropping in Asian wet clay soil conditions.

Fine-textured clayey soils dominate Asian rice fields that are kept either fallow or cultivated with non-rice crops after harvest of monsoon rice. Use of seeding machinery compatible with the principles of conservation agriculture on such soils, however, has not been promising. Under these conditions - which predominate the population and poverty dense areas of coastal South Asia - such machinery fails to open a furrow or throws excessive soil out of the tilled furrow during strip-till seeding. This results in a poor seed coverage at planting jeopardizing crop establishment. In response, this soil bin study investigated strip-tillage blade designs and settings to optimize rotary strip-till system for wet clay soil conditions common in South Asian rice fields. Three designs of C type rotary blade (conventional, medium and straight) and two blade settings (four and six blades per row; 50 and 100 mm cutting widths) were tested at three blade operating depths (50, 75, and 100 mm) using a tillage test rig and a soil bin, and a high-speed camera to understand the processes of soil cutting, throwing, backfilling, and creation of furrow seedbed. The soil bin soil consisted of a wet sandy-clay-loam soil with a moisture content of 28.2% (85% of field capacity) and was compacted to the bulk density of 1440 kg m-3. Using the test rig, rotary speed of the blades was maintained at 480 rpm and forward speed at 0.4 m s-1. At four blades per row setting, all blades created high amounts of optimum clods (1-20 mm size). The conventional and medium blades threw too much soil out of the strip-tilled furrow while the straight blade created adequate backfill at 75 and 100 mm operating depths. At 6 blades per row setting, all blades produced high amounts of backfill at any depths, but the straight blade also produced the highest amounts of optimum clods and a uniform furrow. Considering machine and energy costs, blade performance, and the necessity of minimizing soil disturbance in strip-tillage, our study indicates that the use of straight blades (four blades per row) operated at a depth of 75 or 100 mm are more ideal. These specifications are likely to enhance strip-tillage stand establishment in fine-textured soils with high moisture contents, though further work is needed under actual field conditions to confirm suitability of the proposed strip-till system for crop establishment in currently fallowed as well as the intensively cropped lands of Asia.

Development of balanced nutrient management innovations in South Asia: Perspectives from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

Imbalanced application of fertilizers is a major fiscal and environmental problem in South Asia. We review fertilizer policies and extension efforts to promote the balanced application of nutrients in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka and draw 4 important lessons. (1) Fertilizer sector reforms need to be fiscally sustainable and politically feasible. Governments in South Asia have abolished fertilizer subsidies on multiple occasions, only to restore them a few years later. (2) The use of phosphate and potash did not decline much even after a sharp increase in their prices in India in 2011-12. Therefore, rationalizing subsidies, while necessary, may not be sufficient to ensure balanced use of fertilizers. Changing farmers' practice requires combining the right incentives with the right information. (3) Soil test based soil health cards (SHC) hold promise, but there is limited evidence on their utility. India's SHC program had very little impact on fertilizer use. (4) Direct cash transfer (DCT) of fertilizer subsidies can reduce distortions, but Sri Lanka's experience shows that implementing it is more challenging than universal subsidies. DCT requires the removal of price controls, integration of land records, farmer identity cards, a cash transfer system with universal coverage, and a competitive fertilizer retail sector.