Increased prognostic value of clinical-reproductive model in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In China, it has been well recognized that some female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have different overall survival (OS) time, even with the same tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, challenging the prognostic value of the TNM system alone. An effective predictive model is needed to accurately evaluate the prognosis of female ESCC patients. AIM: To construct a novel prognostic model with clinical and reproductive data for Chinese female patients with ESCC, and to assess the incremental prognostic value of the full model compared with the clinical model and TNM stage. METHODS: A new prognostic nomogram incorporating clinical and reproductive features was constructed based on univariatie and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis from a training cohort (n = 175). The results were recognized using the internal (n = 111) and independent external (n = 85) validation cohorts. The capability of the clinical-reproductive model was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), Kaplan-Meier curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis. The correlations between estrogen response and immune-related pathways and some gene markers of immune cells were analyzed using the TIMER 2.0 database. RESULTS: A clinical-reproductive model including incidence area, age, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (N) stage, estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) and beta (ESR2) expression, menopausal age, and pregnancy number was constructed to predict OS in female ESCC patients. Compared to the clinical model and TNM stage, the time-dependent ROC and C-index of the clinical-reproductive model showed a good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS in the primary training, internal and external validation sets. Based on the optimal cut-off value of total prognostic scores, patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different OS. The estrogen response was significantly associated with p53 and apoptosis pathways in esophageal cancer. CONCLUSION: The clinical-reproductive prognostic nomogram has an incremental prognostic value compared with the clinical model and TNM stage in predicting OS in Chinese female ESCC patients.

Long-term effect of hospital volume on the postoperative prognosis of 158,618 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China.

Background: The impact of hospital volume on the long-term survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has not been well assessed in China, especially for stage I-III stage ESCC. We performed a large sample size study to assess the relationships between hospital volume and the effectiveness of ESCC treatment and the hospital volume value at the lowest risk of all-cause mortality after esophagectomy in China. Aim: To investigate the prognostic value of hospital volume for assessing postoperative long-term survival of ESCC patients in China. Methods: The date of 158,618 patients with ESCC were collected from a database (1973-2020) established by the State Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Prevention and Treatment, the database includes 500,000 patients with detailed clinical information of pathological diagnosis and staging, treatment approaches and survival follow-up for esophageal and gastric cardia cancers. Intergroup comparisons of patient and treatment characteristics were conducted with the X2 test and analysis of variance. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to draw the survival curves for the variables tested. A Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The relationship between hospital volume and all-cause mortality was assessed using restricted cubic splines from Cox proportional hazards models. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results: In both 1973-1996 and 1997-2020, patients with stage I-III stage ESCC who underwent surgery in high volume hospitals had better survival than those who underwent surgery in low volume hospitals (both P<0.05). And high volume hospital was an independent factor for better prognosis in ESCC patients. The relationship between hospital volume and the risk of all-cause mortality was half-U-shaped, but overall, hospital volume was a protective factor for esophageal cancer patients after surgery (HR<1). The concentration of hospital volume associated with the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was 1027 cases/year in the overall enrolled patients. Conclusion: Hospital volume can be used as an indicator to predict the postoperative survival of ESCC patients. Our results suggest that the centralized management of esophageal cancer surgery is meaningful to improve the survival of ESCC patients in China, but the hospital volume should preferably not be higher than 1027 cases/year. Core tip: Hospital volume is considered to be a prognostic factor for many complex diseases. However, the impact of hospital volume on long-term survival after esophagectomy has not been well evaluated in China. Based on a large sample size of 158,618 ESCC patients in China spanning 47 years (1973-2020), We found that hospital volume can be used as a predictor of postoperative survival in patients with ESCC, and identified hospital volume thresholds with the lowest risk of death from all causes. This may provide an important basis for patients to choose hospitals and have a significant impact on the centralized management of hospital surgery.

The prognostic value of keratin pearls in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Keratin pearls (KP) is an important indicator of the degree of tumor cell differentiation of esophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCC). However, the independent prognostic value of KP in ESCC patients remains unclear. The hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) stained tissue microarrays (TMAs) or whole slides of the patients were prepared to identify the existence of KP. Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis as well as univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic value of KP. A nomogram based on KP and other clinicopathologic characteristics was constructed. The C-index, calibration curve, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram. The results indicated KP is a protective factor against lymph node metastasis and is closely associated with the differentiation degree in ESCC patients. KM survival analysis showed that the overall survival (OS) of patients with KP was significantly better than for patients without KP. In addition, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that KP was an independent predictor of OS. Furthermore, ROC curve demonstrated that KP combined with differentiation degree could more accurately predict the 5-year survival rate than differentiation degree alone. Importantly, the nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration abilities in both training and validation groups, which could more accurately predict the 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates of ESCC patients and adds to the predictive value of TNM stage alone. In conclusion, KP is an independent predictor of prognosis in patients with ESCC and provides incremental prognostic value to degree of differentiation.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients. AIM: To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China. METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model. RESULTS: The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7th tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7th TNM staging . CONCLUSION: Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions.

The alterations of cytokeratin and vimentin protein expressions in primary esophageal spindle cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The accumulated evidence has indicated the diagnostic role of cytokeratin (CK) and vimentin protein immunoassay in primary esophageal spindle cell carcinoma (PESC), which is a rare malignant tumor with epithelial and spindle components. However, it is largely unknown for the expression of CK and vimentin in pathological changes and prognosis of PESC. METHODS: Eighty-two PESC patients were identified from the esophageal and gastric cardia cancer database established by Henan Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Research of Zhengzhou University. We retrospectively evaluated CK and vimentin protein expressions in PESC. Clinicopathological features were examined by means of univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Furthermore, the co-expression value of cytokeratin and vimentin was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The positive pan-cytokeratins AE1/AE3 (AE1/AE3 for short) staining was chiefly observed in cytoplasm of epithelial component tumor cells, with a positive detection rate of 85.4% (70/82). Interestingly, 19 cases showed AE1/AE3 positive staining both in epithelial and spindle components (23.2%). However, AE1/AE3 expression was not observed with any significant association with age, gender, tumor location, gross appearance, lymph node metastasis and TNM stage. Furthermore, AE1/AE3 protein expression does not show any effect on survival. Similar results were observed for vimentin immunoassay. However, in comparison with a single protein, the predictive power of AE1/AE3 and vimentin proteins signature was increased apparently than with single signature [0.75 (95% CI = 0.68-0.82) with single protein v.s. 0.89 (95% CI = 0.85-0.94) with AE1/AE3 and vimentin proteins]. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-year survival rates for PESC patients in this study were 79.3%, 46.3%, 28.0% and 15.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis demonstrated age and TNM stage were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (P = 0.036 and 0.003, respectively). It is noteworthy that only 17.1% patients had a PESC accurate diagnosis by biopsy pathology before surgery (14/82). 72.4% PESC patients with biopsy pathology before surgery had been diagnosed as squamous cell carcinoma. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that cytokeratin and vimentin protein immunoassay is a useful biomarker for PESC accurate diagnosis, but not prognosis. The co-expression of cytokeratin and vimentin in both epithelial and spindle components suggest the possibility of single clone origination for PESC.

Association of genotypes of rs671 withinALDH2 with risk for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma in the Chinese Han population in high- and low-incidence areas.

OBJECTIVE: : This study aimed to determine if gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) risk was associated with the lys (A or *2) allele at the rs671 (glu504lys) polymorphism within the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene in a Chinese Han population. We also aimed to investigateALDH2 genotypic distributions between subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: : We designed a case-control study including 2,686 patients with GCA and 3,675 control subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC in China. TaqMan allele discrimination assay was used to genotype the rs671 polymorphism.χ2 test and binary logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the odds ratios for the development of GCA, and multivariate ordinal logistic regression was used to analyzeALDH2 genotypic distributions among different groups. RESULTS: : Compared withALDH2*1/*1 homozygotes,ALDH2*1/*2 andALDH2*2/*2 carriers did not increase the risk for GCA in the Chinese Han population (P>0.05). Interestingly, the ratio of homozygous or heterozygousALDH2 *2 carriers in high-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC was lower than that in low-incidence areas (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: : Genotypes of rs671 atALDH2 may not increase GCA susceptibility in Chinese Han populations. In addition, theALDH2 genotypic distribution differs between Chinese Han populations from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC. Our findings may shed light on the possible genetic mechanism for the dramatic geographic differences of GCA occurrence in China.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus infection in esophageal and cervical cancers in the high incidence area for the two diseases from 2007 to 2009 in Linzhou of Henan Province, Northern China.

The etiological role of human papillomavirus (HPV) in cervical cancer has been well established. However, it is inconclusive whether HPV plays the same role in esophageal carcinogenesis. In this study, we detected HPV infection in 145 frozen esophageal tissues, including 30 normal epithelium (ENOR), 37 dysplasia (DYS) and 78 invasive squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and in 143 frozen cervical tissues composed of 30 normal epithelium (CNOR), 38 intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and 75 invasive squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC). The patients and symptom-free subjects enrolled in this study were from a high-incidence area for both ESCC and CSCC, Linzhou City, Northern China, from 2007 to 2009. The HPV infection analysis was conducted by using an HPV GenoArray Test Kit. We found that the high-risk HPV types accounted for more than 90 % of the HPV-positive lesions of esophagus and cervix tissues. The prevalence of high-risk HPV types increased significantly during the progression of both esophageal and cervical carcinogenesis (positive rate in esophageal tissues: 33 % ENOR, 70 % in DYS and 69 % in ESCC; positive rate in cervical tissues: 27 % in CNOR, 82 % in CIN and 88 % in CSCC; P < 0.001, respectively). Infection with the high-risk HPV types increased the risk for both DYS and ESCC by 4-fold (DYS vs. ENOR: OR = 4.73, 95 %CI = 1.68-13.32; ESCC vs. ENOR: OR = 4.50, 95 %CI = 1.83-11.05) and increased the risk for both CIN and CSCC by 12-fold and 20-fold (CIN vs. CNOR: OR = 12.18, 95 %CI = 3.85-38.55; CSCC vs. CNOR: OR = 20.17, 95 %CI = 6.93-58.65), respectively. The prevalence of high-risk types in ESCC patients was lower than that in CSCC patients (P = 0.005) and was significantly associated with the degree of ESCC tumor infiltration (P = 0.001). HPV 16 was the most prevalent subtype in both esophageal and cervical tissues. Single HPV infection increased significantly along with the progression of ESCC and maintained a high level in cervical tissues, regardless of whether they were CNOR or CSCC tissues. Our results showed that infection with HPV, especially the high-risk types, was positively associated with both esophageal and cervical cancers, suggesting that HPV also plays a role in the etiology of ESCC in the high-incidence area.

Genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese subjects identifies susceptibility loci at PLCE1 and C20orf54.

We performed a genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by genotyping 1,077 individuals with ESCC and 1,733 control subjects of Chinese Han descent. We selected 18 promising SNPs for replication in an additional 7,673 cases of ESCC and 11,013 control subjects of Chinese Han descent and 303 cases of ESCC and 537 control subjects of Chinese Uygur-Kazakh descent. We identified two previously unknown susceptibility loci for ESCC: PLCE1 at 10q23 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 7.46 x 10(-56), odds ratio (OR) = 1.43; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 5.70 x 10(-4), OR = 1.53) and C20orf54 at 20p13 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 1.21 x 10(-11), OR = 0.86; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 7.88 x 10(-3), OR = 0.66). We also confirmed association in 2,766 cases of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma cases and the same 11,013 control subjects (PLCE1, P(Han for GCA) = 1.74 x 10(-39), OR = 1.55 and C20orf54, P(Han for GCA) = 3.02 x 10(-3), OR = 0.91). PLCE1 and C20orf54 have important biological implications for both ESCC and GCA. PLCE1 might regulate cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis and angiogenesis. C20orf54 is responsible for transporting riboflavin, and deficiency of riboflavin has been documented as a risk factor for ESCC and GCA.