Increased prognostic value of clinical-reproductive model in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In China, it has been well recognized that some female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have different overall survival (OS) time, even with the same tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, challenging the prognostic value of the TNM system alone. An effective predictive model is needed to accurately evaluate the prognosis of female ESCC patients. AIM: To construct a novel prognostic model with clinical and reproductive data for Chinese female patients with ESCC, and to assess the incremental prognostic value of the full model compared with the clinical model and TNM stage. METHODS: A new prognostic nomogram incorporating clinical and reproductive features was constructed based on univariatie and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis from a training cohort (n = 175). The results were recognized using the internal (n = 111) and independent external (n = 85) validation cohorts. The capability of the clinical-reproductive model was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), Kaplan-Meier curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis. The correlations between estrogen response and immune-related pathways and some gene markers of immune cells were analyzed using the TIMER 2.0 database. RESULTS: A clinical-reproductive model including incidence area, age, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (N) stage, estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) and beta (ESR2) expression, menopausal age, and pregnancy number was constructed to predict OS in female ESCC patients. Compared to the clinical model and TNM stage, the time-dependent ROC and C-index of the clinical-reproductive model showed a good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS in the primary training, internal and external validation sets. Based on the optimal cut-off value of total prognostic scores, patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different OS. The estrogen response was significantly associated with p53 and apoptosis pathways in esophageal cancer. CONCLUSION: The clinical-reproductive prognostic nomogram has an incremental prognostic value compared with the clinical model and TNM stage in predicting OS in Chinese female ESCC patients.

Long-term effect of hospital volume on the postoperative prognosis of 158,618 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China.

Background: The impact of hospital volume on the long-term survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has not been well assessed in China, especially for stage I-III stage ESCC. We performed a large sample size study to assess the relationships between hospital volume and the effectiveness of ESCC treatment and the hospital volume value at the lowest risk of all-cause mortality after esophagectomy in China. Aim: To investigate the prognostic value of hospital volume for assessing postoperative long-term survival of ESCC patients in China. Methods: The date of 158,618 patients with ESCC were collected from a database (1973-2020) established by the State Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Prevention and Treatment, the database includes 500,000 patients with detailed clinical information of pathological diagnosis and staging, treatment approaches and survival follow-up for esophageal and gastric cardia cancers. Intergroup comparisons of patient and treatment characteristics were conducted with the X2 test and analysis of variance. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to draw the survival curves for the variables tested. A Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The relationship between hospital volume and all-cause mortality was assessed using restricted cubic splines from Cox proportional hazards models. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results: In both 1973-1996 and 1997-2020, patients with stage I-III stage ESCC who underwent surgery in high volume hospitals had better survival than those who underwent surgery in low volume hospitals (both P<0.05). And high volume hospital was an independent factor for better prognosis in ESCC patients. The relationship between hospital volume and the risk of all-cause mortality was half-U-shaped, but overall, hospital volume was a protective factor for esophageal cancer patients after surgery (HR<1). The concentration of hospital volume associated with the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was 1027 cases/year in the overall enrolled patients. Conclusion: Hospital volume can be used as an indicator to predict the postoperative survival of ESCC patients. Our results suggest that the centralized management of esophageal cancer surgery is meaningful to improve the survival of ESCC patients in China, but the hospital volume should preferably not be higher than 1027 cases/year. Core tip: Hospital volume is considered to be a prognostic factor for many complex diseases. However, the impact of hospital volume on long-term survival after esophagectomy has not been well evaluated in China. Based on a large sample size of 158,618 ESCC patients in China spanning 47 years (1973-2020), We found that hospital volume can be used as a predictor of postoperative survival in patients with ESCC, and identified hospital volume thresholds with the lowest risk of death from all causes. This may provide an important basis for patients to choose hospitals and have a significant impact on the centralized management of hospital surgery.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients. AIM: To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China. METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model. RESULTS: The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7th tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7th TNM staging . CONCLUSION: Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions.

Characterization of 500 Chinese patients with cervical esophageal cancer by clinicopathological and treatment outcomes.

Objective: There are no comprehensive studies on survival outcomes and optimal treatment protocols for cervical esophageal cancer (CEC), due to its rare clinical prevalence. Our objective was to determine the relationship between pathological characteristics, treatment protocols, and survival outcomes in Chinese CEC patients. Methods: A total of 500 Chinese CEC patients were selected from our 500,000 esophageal and gastric cardia carcinoma database (1973-2018). There were two main groups: patients treated with surgery, and patients receiving non-surgical treatments (radiotherapy, radiochemotherapy, and chemotherapy). The Chi-square test and Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare the continuous variables and survival. Results: Among the 500 CEC patients, 278 (55.6%) were male, and the median age was 60.9 ± 9.4 years. A total of 496 patients (99.2%) were diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. In 171 (34.2%) patients who received surgery, 22 (12.9%) had undergone laryngectomy. In 322 (64.4%) patients who received non-surgical treatments, 245 (76.1%) received radiotherapy. Stratified survival analysis showed that only T stage was related with survival outcomes for CEC patients in the surgical group, and the outcomes between laryngectomy and non-laryngectomy patients were similar. It was noteworthy that the 5-year survival rate was similar in CEC patients among the different groups treated with surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, or radiochemotherapy (P = 0.244). Conclusions: The CEC patients had similar survival outcomes after curative esophagectomy and radiotherapy, including those with or without total laryngectomy. These findings suggest that radiotherapy could be the initial choice for treatment of Chinese CEC patients.

The prognostic values of estrogen receptor alpha and beta in patients with gastroesophageal cancer: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Published studies have investigated the prognostic roles of estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) and estrogen receptor beta (ERß) in gastroesophageal cancer patients with the controversial results. The aim of the study was to systematically evaluate the impacts of ERα and ERß on the overall survival (OS) in patients. METHOD: Relevant eligible studies were extracted from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases (from the start date to November 2018) following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. HR (hazard ratio) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the prognostic values of ERα and ERß for OS in patients. RESULTS: High ERα expression was associated with poor OS (HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.29-1.94, P < .001) and ERß with better OS (HR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.37-0.83, P = .004) in gastroesophageal cancer. Furthermore, unfavorable OS was found in Chinese gastroesophageal patients with higher ERα expression (HR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.25-1.96, P < .001) and better OS with higher ERß expression (HR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.31-0.83, P < .01) in our subgroup analysis. Meanwhile, worse OS was found in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with high ERα expression (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.33-2.26, P < .001), and favorable OS in ESCC with ERß overexpression (HR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.31-0.52, P < .001). Besides, high ERα expression was associated with lower tumor differentiation in ESCC (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.02-2.64, P = .04) and ERß was linked with better tumor differentiation in gastric adenocarcinoma (GCA) (OR = 0.49; 95% CI = 0.26-0.94, P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: ERα and ERß might serve as potential prognostic biomarkers for gastroesophageal cancer patients. ERα overexpression predicted poor OS and lower tumor differentiation, and ERß suggested favorable OS and better tumor differentiation. Further related studies should be performed to test these results.

Characterization of serum estradiol level and tissue estrogen receptor immunostaining with clinical response and reproductive factor changes in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Pre-menopausal female patients have a prolonged survival than post-menopausal patients, indicating that estrogen and/or estrogen receptor (ER) may have some biological effects on prognosis. ER expression in cancer tissue has been reported to be a significant prognostic marker in multiple human cancers. However, the prognostic value of estrogen and/or ER on female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is rarely reported. The present study was undertaken to elucidate the associations of serum estradiol level, tissue estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) and estrogen receptor beta (ERß) expression with clinical response and reproductive factor changes in 387 female ESCC patients. Radioimmunoassay revealed that serum estradiol level was higher in pre-menopausal than those in peri-menopausal and post-menopausal patients. Furthermore, patients with higher serum estradiol level appeared to have a better survival. Immunostaining results suggested that ERα positive (+) expression was mainly located in cytoplasm of tumor cells with a positive rate of 69.9% and ERß (+) was mainly located in nucleus of tumor cells with a positive rate of 64.9%. We did not find the relations of ER expression with tumor invasion (P>0.05), lymph node metastasis (P>0.05), TNM staging (P>0.05) and treatment method (P>0.05). Surprisingly, ERα (+) expression was higher in post-menopausal patients than those in pre-menopausal patients (P<0.05). Patients with number of pregnancy≥4 have a higher ERß (+) expression than those patients with≤3 (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate survival analysis showed that ERß (+) expression in addition to ERα (-) expression are favorable prognostic markers in female ESCC patients (P<0.05). Further related study is needed to in-depth explore the potential mechanisms of ERα and ERß in survival of female patients with ESCC.

Association of genotypes of rs671 withinALDH2 with risk for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma in the Chinese Han population in high- and low-incidence areas.

OBJECTIVE: : This study aimed to determine if gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) risk was associated with the lys (A or *2) allele at the rs671 (glu504lys) polymorphism within the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene in a Chinese Han population. We also aimed to investigateALDH2 genotypic distributions between subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: : We designed a case-control study including 2,686 patients with GCA and 3,675 control subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC in China. TaqMan allele discrimination assay was used to genotype the rs671 polymorphism.χ2 test and binary logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the odds ratios for the development of GCA, and multivariate ordinal logistic regression was used to analyzeALDH2 genotypic distributions among different groups. RESULTS: : Compared withALDH2*1/*1 homozygotes,ALDH2*1/*2 andALDH2*2/*2 carriers did not increase the risk for GCA in the Chinese Han population (P>0.05). Interestingly, the ratio of homozygous or heterozygousALDH2 *2 carriers in high-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC was lower than that in low-incidence areas (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: : Genotypes of rs671 atALDH2 may not increase GCA susceptibility in Chinese Han populations. In addition, theALDH2 genotypic distribution differs between Chinese Han populations from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC. Our findings may shed light on the possible genetic mechanism for the dramatic geographic differences of GCA occurrence in China.

Genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese subjects identifies susceptibility loci at PLCE1 and C20orf54.

We performed a genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by genotyping 1,077 individuals with ESCC and 1,733 control subjects of Chinese Han descent. We selected 18 promising SNPs for replication in an additional 7,673 cases of ESCC and 11,013 control subjects of Chinese Han descent and 303 cases of ESCC and 537 control subjects of Chinese Uygur-Kazakh descent. We identified two previously unknown susceptibility loci for ESCC: PLCE1 at 10q23 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 7.46 x 10(-56), odds ratio (OR) = 1.43; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 5.70 x 10(-4), OR = 1.53) and C20orf54 at 20p13 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 1.21 x 10(-11), OR = 0.86; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 7.88 x 10(-3), OR = 0.66). We also confirmed association in 2,766 cases of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma cases and the same 11,013 control subjects (PLCE1, P(Han for GCA) = 1.74 x 10(-39), OR = 1.55 and C20orf54, P(Han for GCA) = 3.02 x 10(-3), OR = 0.91). PLCE1 and C20orf54 have important biological implications for both ESCC and GCA. PLCE1 might regulate cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis and angiogenesis. C20orf54 is responsible for transporting riboflavin, and deficiency of riboflavin has been documented as a risk factor for ESCC and GCA.