Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission.

To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic-viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose-response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12-24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9-56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6-38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36-48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8-28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8-19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient.

Assessing the fitness of a dual-antiviral drug resistant human influenza virus in the ferret model.

Influenza antivirals are important tools in our fight against annual influenza epidemics and future influenza pandemics. Combinations of antivirals may reduce the likelihood of drug resistance and improve clinical outcomes. Previously, two hospitalised immunocompromised influenza patients, who received a combination of a neuraminidase inhibitor and baloxavir marboxil, shed influenza viruses resistant to both drugs. Here-in, the replicative fitness of one of these A(H1N1)pdm09 virus isolates with dual resistance mutations (NA-H275Y and PA-I38T) was similar to wild type virus (WT) in vitro, but reduced in the upper respiratory tracts of challenged ferrets. The dual-mutant virus transmitted well between ferrets in an airborne transmission model, but was outcompeted by the WT when the two viruses were co-administered. These results indicate the dual-mutant virus had a moderate loss of viral fitness compared to the WT virus, suggesting that while person-to-person transmission of the dual-resistant virus may be possible, widespread community transmission is unlikely.

Reducing Influenza Virus Transmission: The Potential Value of Antiviral Treatment.

Prompt antiviral treatment has the potential to reduce influenza virus transmission to close contacts, but rigorous data on the magnitude of treatment effects on transmission are limited. Animal model data indicate that rapid reductions in viral replication after antiviral treatment reduce the risk of transmission. Observational and clinical trial data with oseltamivir and other neuraminidase inhibitors indicate that prompt treatment of household index patients seems to reduce the risk of illness in contacts, although the magnitude of the reported effects has varied widely across studies. In addition, the potential risk of transmitting drug-resistant variants exists with all approved classes of influenza antivirals. A controlled trial examining baloxavir treatment efficacy to reduce transmission, including the risk of transmitting virus with reduced baloxavir susceptibility, is currently in progress. If reduced transmission risk is confirmed, modeling studies indicate that early treatment could have major epidemiologic benefits in seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Evaluating the fitness of PA/I38T-substituted influenza A viruses with reduced baloxavir susceptibility in a competitive mixtures ferret model.

Baloxavir is approved in several countries for the treatment of uncomplicated influenza in otherwise-healthy and high-risk patients. Treatment-emergent viruses with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir have been detected in clinical trials, but the likelihood of widespread occurrence depends on replication capacity and onward transmission. We evaluated the fitness of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1pdm09 viruses with the polymerase acidic (PA) I38T-variant conferring reduced susceptibility to baloxavir relative to wild-type (WT) viruses, using a competitive mixture ferret model, recombinant viruses and patient-derived virus isolates. The A/H3N2 PA/I38T virus showed a reduction in within-host fitness but comparable between-host fitness to the WT virus, while the A/H1N1pdm09 PA/I38T virus had broadly similar within-host fitness but substantially lower between-host fitness. Although PA/I38T viruses replicate and transmit between ferrets, our data suggest that viruses with this amino acid substitution have lower fitness relative to WT and this relative fitness cost was greater in A/H1N1pdm09 viruses than in A/H3N2 viruses.

Baloxavir treatment of ferrets infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus reduces onward transmission.

Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks and pose a continuous pandemic threat. Although vaccines are available for influenza control, their efficacy varies each season and a vaccine for a novel pandemic virus manufactured using current technology will not be available fast enough to mitigate the effect of the first pandemic wave. Antivirals can be effective against many different influenza viruses but have not thus far been used extensively for outbreak control. Baloxavir, a recently licensed antiviral drug that targets the influenza virus endonuclease, has been shown to reduce virus shedding more effectively than oseltamivir, a widely used neuraminidase inhibitor drug. Thus it is possible that treatment with baloxavir might also interrupt onward virus transmission. To test this, we utilized the ferret model, which is the most commonly used animal model to study influenza virus transmission. We established a subcutaneous baloxavir administration method in ferrets which achieved similar pharmacokinetics to the approved human oral dose. Transmission studies were then conducted in two different locations with different experimental setups to compare the onward transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from infected ferrets treated with baloxavir, oseltamivir or placebo to naïve sentinel ferrets exposed either indirectly in adjacent cages or directly by co-housing. We found that baloxavir treatment reduced infectious viral shedding in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets compared to placebo, and reduced the frequency of transmission amongst sentinels in both experimental setups, even when treatment was delayed until 2 days post-infection. In contrast, oseltamivir treatment did not substantially affect viral shedding or transmission compared to placebo. We did not detect the emergence of baloxavir-resistant variants in treated animals or in untreated sentinels. Our results support the concept that antivirals which decrease viral shedding could also reduce influenza transmission in the community.

Prospective, Single-Arm, Longitudinal Study of Biomarkers in Real-World Patients with Severe Asthma.

BACKGROUND: ARIETTA was a prospective, single-arm, noninterventional, multicenter study in patients with severe asthma. OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive and prognostic abilities of type 2 biomarkers for severe asthma outcomes. METHODS: Adult patients with severe asthma receiving daily inhaled corticosteroids (fluticasone propionate ≥500 µg or equivalent) and ≥1 second controller medication were enrolled. Biomarker, clinical, and safety data were collected over 52 weeks. The primary endpoint was the asthma exacerbation rate over 52 weeks in serum periostin-high (≥50 ng/mL at baseline) versus periostin-low subgroups (<50 ng/mL). Correlations between biomarker levels (periostin, blood eosinophils, IgE, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide [FeNO]) and between central and local laboratory measurements (blood eosinophils and IgE) were assessed. The study was terminated before planned enrollment was completed. RESULTS: Of 465 patients, 66.5% were female, 13.3% were receiving oral corticosteroids, 42.4% had ≥1 exacerbation in the previous year, 52.0% were periostin-high, and 87.5% had type 2 inflammation (blood eosinophils ≥150 cells/µL and/or FeNO ≥25 ppb and/or positive skin allergen test). Biomarker levels correlated poorly with each other. Central and local laboratory blood eosinophil and IgE measurements generally agreed. No difference was observed in exacerbation rates over 52 weeks between periostin-high and periostin-low patients (rate ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-1.28; P = .642). Results suggested higher exacerbation rates in patients with blood eosinophils ≥300 cells/µL and FeNO ≥25 ppb. CONCLUSIONS: No prognostic value for serum periostin related to exacerbations was detected. Higher blood eosinophils combined with increased FeNO were potentially associated with increased exacerbation rates.

Adverse events profile of oral corticosteroids among asthma patients in the UK: cohort study with a nested case-control analysis.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the adverse events profile of oral prednisolone among adult asthma patients in the UK. METHODS: Using data from the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we conducted a series of cohort studies to quantify incidence rates and incidence rate ratios, and a series of nested case-control analyses to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios, of 11 different potential corticosteroid-related adverse events (bone-related conditions, hypertension, peptic ulcer, severe infections, herpes zoster, diabetes mellitus type 2, cataract, glaucoma, chronic kidney disease, affective disorders, and cardiovascular events). RESULTS: Between 165,900 and 269,368 asthma patients were included in each of the 11 cohorts, of whom between 836 and 16,192 developed an outcome of interest. Incidence rates per 1000 person-years of potential corticosteroid-related adverse events in patients with new current use of oral prednisolone ranged from 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.8) for peptic ulcer to 78.0 (95% CI, 74.8-81.2) for severe infections. After adjusting for confounding, current oral prednisolone use was most strongly associated with an increased risk of severe infection, compared with non-use of prednisolone; OR 2.16 (95% CI, 2.05-2.27). There were smaller elevated risks of peptic ulcer, affective disorders, and cataract at higher doses, and marginally increased risks of herpes zoster, cardiovascular events, diabetes mellitus type 2, and bone related conditions, compared with non-use of prednisolone. We did not observe an association between oral prednisolone use and glaucoma, chronic kidney disease, or hypertension. CONCLUSION: Oral prednisolone use is associated with infections, gastrointestinal, neuropsychiatric, ocular, cardiovascular, metabolic, and bone-related complications among adult asthma patients.