Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Severity of Dementia and Survival in Patients Diagnosed with Colorectal Cancer: A National Cohort Study in England and Wales.

AIMS: There is little evidence about the survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) also diagnosed with dementia. We quantified dementia severity and estimated how it is associated with 2-year overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Records of patients aged 65 years or older diagnosed with CRC in England and Wales were identified. A novel proxy for dementia severity combined dementia diagnosis in administrative hospital data with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios with and without risk adjustment. RESULTS: In total, 4033 of 105 250 CRC patients (3.8%) had dementia recorded. Two-year survival decreased with increasing dementia severity from 65.4% without dementia, 53.5% with mild dementia, 33.0% with moderate dementia to 16.5% with severe dementia (hazard ratio comparing severe with no dementia: 2.97; 95% confidence interval 2.79, 3.16). Risk adjustment for comorbidity and cancer stage reduced this association slightly (hazard ratio 2.52; 95% confidence interval 2.37, 2.68) and additional adjustment for treatment factors reduced it further (hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.50, 1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Survival of CRC patients varied strongly according to dementia severity, suggesting that a 'one-size-fits-all' policy for the care of CRC patients with dementia is not appropriate. Comprehensive assessment of cancer patients with dementia that considers dementia severity is essential in a shared decision-making process that ensures patients receive the most appropriate treatment for their individual needs and preferences.

Failure to rescue patients after emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation: analysis of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA).

BACKGROUND: Past studies have highlighted variation in in-hospital mortality rates among hospitals performing emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether failure to rescue (FTR) contributes to this variability. METHODS: Patients aged 18 years or over requiring surgery for large bowel perforation between 2013 and 2016 were extracted from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database. Information on complications were identified using linked Hospital Episode Statistics data and in-hospital deaths from the Office for National Statistics. The FTR rate was defined as the proportion of patients dying in hospital with a recorded complication, and was examined in hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 6413 patients were included with 1029 (16.0 per cent) in-hospital deaths. Some 3533 patients (55.1 per cent) had at least one complication: 1023 surgical (16.0 per cent) and 3332 medical (52.0 per cent) complications. There were 22 in-hospital deaths following a surgical complication alone, 685 deaths following a medical complication alone, 150 deaths following both a surgical and medical complication, and 172 deaths with no recorded complication. The risk of in-hospital death was high among patients who suffered either type of complication (857 deaths in 3533 patients; FTR rate 24.3 per cent): 172 deaths followed a surgical complication (FTR-surgical rate 16.8 per cent) and 835 deaths followed a medical complication (FTR-medical rate of 25.1 per cent). After adjustment for patient characteristics and hospital factors, hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality did not have different FTR rates (P = 0.770). CONCLUSION: Among patients having emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation, efforts to reduce the risk of in-hospital death should focus on reducing avoidable complications. There was no evidence of variation in FTR rates across National Health Service hospitals in England.

Determinants of Variation in the Use of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Stage III Colon Cancer in England.

AIMS: Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for stage III colon cancer is well-established. This study aimed to explore the determinants of ACT use and between-hospital variation within the English National Health Service (NHS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 11 932 patients (diagnosed 2014-2017) with pathological stage III colon cancer in the English NHS were identified from the National Bowel Cancer Audit. Records were linked to Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy and Hospital Episode Statistics databases. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were carried out to estimate independent factors for ACT use, including age, sex, deprivation, comorbidities, performance status, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, surgical urgency, surgical access, TNM staging, readmission and hospital-level factors (university teaching hospital, on-site chemotherapy and high-volume centre). A random intercept was modelled for each English NHS hospital (n = 142). Between-hospital variation was explored using funnel plot methodology. Fully adjusted random-intercept models were fitted separately in young (<70 years) and elderly (≥70 years) patients and intra-class correlation coefficients estimated. RESULTS: 60.7% of patients received ACT. Age was the strongest determinant. Compared with patients aged <60 years, those aged 60-64 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.93), 65-69 (aOR 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.74), 70-74 (aOR 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.62), 75-79 (aOR 0.23, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.27) and ≥80 years (aOR 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.04-0.06) were significantly less likely to receive ACT. With adjustment for other factors, ACT use was more likely in patients with higher socioeconomic status, fewer comorbidities, better performance status, lower ASA grade, advanced disease, elective resections, laparoscopic procedures and no unplanned readmissions. Hospital-level factors were non-significant. The observed proportions of ACT administration in the young and elderly were 46-100% (80% of hospitals 74-90%) and 10-81% (80% of hospitals 33-65%), respectively. Risk adjustment did not reduce between-hospital variation. Despite adjustment, age accounted for 9.9% (7.2-13.4%) of between-hospital variation in the elderly compared with 2.7% (1.2-5.7%) in the young. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant between-hospital variation in ACT use for stage III colon cancer, especially for older patients. Advanced age alone seems to be a greater barrier to ACT use in some hospitals.

Development and internal validation of a novel risk adjustment model for adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy surgery: the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit risk model.

BACKGROUND: Among patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, 30-day postoperative mortality is around 10-15%. The risk of death among these patients, however, varies greatly because of their clinical characteristics. We developed a risk prediction model for 30-day postoperative mortality to enable better comparison of outcomes between hospitals. METHODS: We analysed data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) on patients having an emergency laparotomy between December 2013 and November 2015. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with potential risk factors identified from existing prediction models, national guidelines, and clinical experts. Continuous risk factors were transformed if necessary to reflect their non-linear relationship with 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was assessed in terms of its calibration and discrimination. Interval validation was conducted using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: There were 4458 (11.5%) deaths within 30-days among the 38 830 patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Variables associated with death included (among others): age, blood pressure, heart rate, physiological variables, malignancy, and ASA physical status classification. The predicted risk of death among patients ranged from 1% to 50%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.863 (95% confidence interval, 0.858-0.867). The model retained its high discrimination during internal validation, with a bootstrap derived C-statistic of 0.861. CONCLUSIONS: The NELA risk prediction model for emergency laparotomies discriminates well between low- and high-risk patients and is suitable for producing risk-adjusted provider mortality statistics.

Socioeconomic differences in selection for liver resection in metastatic colorectal cancer and the impact on survival.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in colorectal cancer (CRC) survival are well recognised. The aim of this study was to describe the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on survival in patients with synchronous CRC liver-limited metastases, and to investigate if any survival inequalities are explained by differences in liver resection rates. METHODS: Patients in the National Bowel Cancer Audit diagnosed with CRC between 2010 and 2016 in the English National Health Service were included. Linked Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify the presence of liver metastases and whether a liver resection had been performed. Multivariable random-effects logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of liver resection by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile. Cox-proportional hazards model was used to compare 3-year survival. RESULTS: 13,656 patients were included, of whom 2213 (16.2%) underwent liver resection. Patients in the least deprived IMD quintile were more likely to undergo liver resection than those in the most deprived quintile (adjusted OR 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.70). Patients in the least deprived quintile had better 3-year survival (least deprived vs. most deprived quintile, 22.3% vs. 17.4%; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.20, 1.11-1.30). Adjusting for liver resection attenuated, but did not remove, this effect. There was no difference in survival between IMD quintile when restricted to patients who underwent liver resection (adjusted HR 0.97, 0.76-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Deprived CRC patients with synchronous liver-limited metastases have worse survival than more affluent patients. Lower rates of liver resection in more deprived patients is a contributory factor.

Thirty-day mortality in patients undergoing laparotomy for small bowel obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a common indication for emergency laparotomy. There are currently variations in the timing of surgery for patients with SBO and limited evidence on whether delayed surgery affects outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of time to operation on 30-day mortality in patients requiring emergency laparotomy for SBO. METHODS: Data were collected from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) on all patients aged 18 years or older who underwent emergency laparotomy for all forms of SBO between December 2013 and November 2015. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality, with date of death obtained from the Office for National Statistics. Patients were grouped according to the time from admission to surgery (less than 24 h, 24-72 h and more than 72 h). A multilevel logistic regression model was used to explore the impact of patient factors, primarily delay to surgery, on 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Some 9991 patients underwent emergency laparotomy requiring adhesiolysis or small bowel resection for SBO. The overall mortality rate was 7·2 per cent (722 patients). Within each time group, 30-day mortality rates were significantly worse with increasing age, ASA grade, Portsmouth POSSUM score and level of contamination. Patients undergoing emergency laparotomy more than 72 h after admission had a significantly higher risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rate (odds ratio 1·39, 95 per cent c.i. 1·09 to 1·76). CONCLUSION: In patients who require an emergency laparotomy with adhesiolysis or resection for SBO, a delay to surgery of more than 72 h is associated with a higher 30-day postoperative mortality rate.

The timing of liver resection in patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous liver metastases: a population-based study of current practice and survival.

AIM: There is uncertainty regarding the optimal sequence of surgery for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and synchronous liver metastases. This study was designed to describe temporal trends and inter-hospital variation in surgical strategy, and to compare long-term survival in a propensity score-matched analysis. METHOD: The National Bowel Cancer Audit dataset was used to identify patients diagnosed with primary CRC between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015 who underwent CRC resection in the English National Health Service. Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify those with synchronous liver-limited metastases who underwent liver resection. Survival outcomes of propensity score-matched groups were compared. RESULTS: Of 1830 patients, 270 (14.8%) underwent a liver-first approach, 259 (14.2%) a simultaneous approach and 1301 (71.1%) a bowel-first approach. The proportion of patients undergoing either a liver-first or simultaneous approach increased over the study period from 26.8% in 2010 to 35.6% in 2015 (P < 0.001). There was wide variation in surgical approach according to hospital trust of diagnosis. There was no evidence of a difference in 4-year survival between the propensity score-matched cohorts according to surgical strategy: bowel first vs simultaneous [hazard ratio (HR) 0.92 (95% CI: 0.80-1.06)] or bowel first vs liver first [HR 0.99 (95% CI: 0.82-1.19)]. CONCLUSION: There is evidence of wide variation in surgical strategy in dealing with CRC and synchronous liver metastases. In selected patients, the simultaneous and liver-first strategies have comparable long-term survival to the bowel-first approach.

Impact of hepatobiliary service centralization on treatment and outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer and liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Centralization of specialist surgical services can improve patient outcomes. The aim of this cohort study was to compare liver resection rates and survival in patients with primary colorectal cancer and synchronous metastases limited to the liver diagnosed at hepatobiliary surgical units (hubs) with those diagnosed at hospital Trusts without hepatobiliary services (spokes). METHODS: The study included patients from the National Bowel Cancer Audit diagnosed with primary colorectal cancer between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2014 who underwent colorectal cancer resection in the English National Health Service. Patients were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data to identify those with liver metastases and those who underwent liver resection. Multivariable random-effects logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio of liver resection by presence of specialist hepatobiliary services on site. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Of 4547 patients, 1956 (43·0 per cent) underwent liver resection. The 1081 patients diagnosed at hubs were more likely to undergo liver resection (adjusted odds ratio 1·52, 95 per cent c.i. 1·20 to 1·91). Patients diagnosed at hubs had better median survival (30·6 months compared with 25·3 months for spokes; adjusted hazard ratio 0·83, 0·75 to 0·91). There was no difference in survival between hubs and spokes when the analysis was restricted to patients who had liver resection (P = 0·620) or those who did not undergo liver resection (P = 0·749). CONCLUSION: Patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous metastases limited to the liver who are diagnosed at hospital Trusts with a hepatobiliary team on site are more likely to undergo liver resection and have better survival.

Determinants of stoma reversal in rectal cancer patients who had an anterior resection between 2009 and 2012 in the English National Health Service.

AIM: The rate of ileostomy reversal was estimated in patients undergoing an elective anterior resection for rectal cancer and factors associated with reversal were identified. METHOD: The records of 4879 rectal patients who had an ileostomy created during anterior resection between 2009 and 2012 were identified in the National Bowel Cancer Audit database and linked to administrative records of the Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients were followed from surgery. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the impact of patient and cancer characteristics on ileostomy reversal with death as the competing risk. RESULTS: Within 18 months from anterior resection, 3536 (72.5%) patients had undergone ileostomy reversal. The reversal rate was lower in the following circumstances: older patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.90; 95% CI 0.84-0.96, aged 80 vs 70 years], male gender (HR 0.90; 0.84-0.97), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (HR 0.64; 0.56-0.74, ASA 3+ vs 1), more advanced cancer (HR 0.77; 0.69-0.87, T3 vs T1), socioeconomic deprivation (HR 0.83; 0.74-0.93, most vs least deprived quintile), comorbidity (HR 0.92; 0.84-1.00, one vs no comorbidity) and open surgical procedure (HR 0.90; 0.84-0.97, open vs laparoscopic). CONCLUSION: Overall, two-thirds of ileostomies were reversed within 18 months. Reversal rates were linked to patient and cancer characteristics (age, sex, fitness and stage), mode of surgical access and socioeconomic deprivation. Observed lower reversal rates in patients from poorer backgrounds may indicate inequity in access.

Identifying patients at risk of emergency admission for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients whose colorectal cancer is treated after an emergency admission tend to have late-stage cancer and a poor prognosis. We identified risk factors for an emergency admission by linking data from the National Bowel Cancer Audit (NBCA) and the English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), an administrative database of all admissions to English National Health Service hospitals, which includes data on mode of admission. METHODS: We identified all adults included in the NBCA with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer, excluding cancer of the appendix, between August 2007 and July 2011 whose record could be linked to HES. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for an emergency admission for colorectal cancer. All risk factors were adjusted for cancer site and calendar year. RESULTS: 97,909 adults were identified with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer and 82,777 patients could be linked to HES. Patients who were older, female, of a non-white ethnic background, and more socioeconomically deprived, and those with dementia or cardiac, neurologic and liver disease had an increased risk of presenting as an emergency admission. The strongest risk factors were age (90 compared with 70 years: OR 2.99, 95% CI 2.84 to 3.15), dementia (OR 2.46, 2.18 to 2.79), and liver disease (OR 1.87, 1.69 to 2.08). CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies risk factors that may impair health-seeking behaviour and access to healthcare. An earlier recognition of symptoms in patients with these risk factors may contribute to better outcomes.