Assessing risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian countries. Several HCC risk prediction models have been developed using either treated or untreated CHB patients. However, there is limited validation of these risk scores in a treated and untreated mixed CHB patient cohort. This study analysed and validated HCC risk scores among 2208 CHB patients who enrolled in the HCC surveillance programme in Thailand during July 2010. The baseline clinical and radiologic data of these CHB patients were applied to calculate various HCC risk scores. There were 20 patients (0.9%) with HCC development at the 5.9-year follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) predicting HCC risk at 5 years were 0.80 (0.68-0.91), 0.73 (0.60-0.85), 0.79 (0.67-0.91), 0.70 (0.58-0.82), 0.72 (0.59-0.85), 0.76 (0.63-0.87) and 0.77 (0.64-0.89) for the GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD and AASL scores, respectively. The overall HCC risk scores were accurate and comparable. However, the subgroup analysis revealed better HCC-risk-predictive performance in the treated patients, while performance was less helpful in those not fulfilling criteria for antiviral therapy. Clinicians should be aware of these data when using the HCC risk score in untreated CHB patients.

Role of quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen in predicting inactive carriers and HBsAg seroclearance in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients.

To evaluate quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) as a diagnostic marker for inactive carriers (ICs) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We retrospectively studied 300 HBeAg-negative CHB patients with initial serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) levels <2000 IU/mL. Serum HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were monitored every 6 months for 24 months. ICs were identified as having persistent HBV DNA levels <2000 IU/mL and normal ALT levels, whereas active carriers (ACs) were identified as having HBV DNA levels ≥2000 IU/mL, with or without elevated ALT levels. The serum qHBsAg level was defined at baseline and evaluated as a diagnostic predictor using a receiver-operating characteristic curve. The study group comprised 134 men and 166 women with a median age of 41.5 years. At baseline, 200 ICs displayed lower levels of qHBsAg (1492 IU/mL) compared with 100 ACs (2936 IU/mL) (P = 0.005). The qHBsAg level was independently associated with the IC state and HBsAg seroclearance. Baseline qHBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA levels <2000 IU/mL, when detected simultaneously, allowed for identification of ICs with 41% sensitivity and 72% specificity. Fifteen patients (5%) displayed HBsAg seroclearance after 24 months. A qHBsAg cutoff value of <50 IU/mL provided 100% sensitivity and 92% specificity in predicting HBsAg seroclearance. The qHBsAg level at a single timepoint among HBeAg-negative CHB patients with low HBV DNA levels at baseline was not a predictive marker for ICs; however, it accurately predicted spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance at 24 months.