Association of childhood food consumption and dietary pattern with cardiometabolic risk factors and metabolomics in late adolescence: prospective evidence from 'Children of 1997' birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Healthy diet might protect against cardiometabolic diseases, but uncertainty exists about its definition and role in adolescence. METHOD: In a subset of Hong Kong's 'Children of 1997' birth cohort (n=2844 out of 8327), we prospectively examined sex-specific associations of food consumption and dietary pattern, proxied by the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) at~12.0 years, with cardiometabolic risk factors and metabolomics at~17.6 years. RESULT: Higher vegetable (-0.04 SD, 95% CIs: -0.09 to 0.00) and soy consumption (-0.05 SD, 95% CI: -0.09 to -0.01) were associated with lower waist-to-hip ratio. Higher fruit and vegetable consumption were associated with lower fasting glucose (p<0.05). Higher fish consumption was associated with 0.06 SD (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.10) high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and -0.07 SD (95% CI: -0.11 to -0.02) triglycerides. After correcting for multiple comparisons (p<0.001), higher fish, fruit and vegetable consumption were associated with higher fatty acid unsaturation, higher concentration and percentage of omega-3 and a lower ratio of omega-6/omega-3. At nominal significance (p<0.05), higher fish consumption was associated with lower very-low-density lipoprotein and triglycerides relevant metabolomics. Higher vegetable and fruit consumption were associated with lower glycolysis-related metabolomics. Lower sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption was associated with lower branched-chain amino acids. Similar associations with adiposity and metabolomics biomarkers were observed for GDQS. CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of fruit, vegetables and fish and lower ice cream and SSBs consumption were associated with lower cardiometabolic risk in adolescents.

Identifying potentially depressed older Chinese adults in the community: Hong Kong's Elderly Health Service cohort.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common at older ages, but is under-recognized due to stigma, misperception, and under-diagnosis; its manifestations may vary by setting. Identifying older adults at risk of depression in the community is urgently needed for timely support and early interventions. We assessed the performance of an existing risk prediction model developed in a European setting (i.e., Depression Risk Assessment Tool (DRAT-up)), and developed a new model (i.e., EHS-Depress model) to predict 2-year risk of the onset of later life depressive symptoms in older Chinese adults. METHODS: Among 185,538 participants aged ≥65 years from Hong Kong's Elderly Health Service (EHS) cohort, 174,806 without depressive symptoms at baseline were included. Two-thirds were randomly sampled for recalibration and new model development using Cox proportional-hazards models with backward elimination. Overall predictive performance, discrimination, and calibration were assessed using the remaining. RESULTS: The original DRAT-up model underestimated the risk of developing depressive symptoms in older Chinese adults; recalibrating it improved calibration. The new EHS-Depress model had better discrimination (Harrell's C statistic 0.68 and D statistic 2.74) and similarly good calibration (calibration slope 1.18 and intercept -0.002) probably due to the inclusion of more specific health measures, socio-demographics, lifestyle factors, and regular social contact as predictors. LIMITATIONS: Predictors of depressive symptoms included in our models depend on the data availability. CONCLUSIONS: The EHS-Depress model predicted 2-year risk of developing depressive symptoms better than the original and recalibrated DRAT-up models. The setting-specific risk prediction model is more applicable to older Chinese adults in primary care settings.

Unraveling Potential Sex-Specific Effects of Cardiovascular Medications on Longevity Using Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Establishing the sex-specific efficacy of cardiovascular medications is pivotal to evidence-based clinical practice, potentially closing the gender gap in longevity. Trials large enough to establish sex differences are unavailable. This study evaluated sex-specific effects of commonly prescribed cardiovascular medications on lifespan. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a two-sample Mendelian randomization study, established genetic variants mimicking effects of lipid-lowering drugs, antihypertensives, and diabetes drugs were applied to genetic associations with lifespan proxied by UK Biobank maternal (n=412 937) and paternal (n=415 311) attained age. Estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting, with sensitivity analyses where possible. For lipid-lowering drugs, genetically mimicked PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibitors were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (2.39 years per SD low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction [95% CI, 0.42-4.36], P for interaction=0.14). Genetically mimicked treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or possibly LDLR were associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. For antihypertensives, genetically mimicked ß-blockers and calcium channel blockers were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (P for interaction=0.17 for ß-blockers and 0.31 for calcium channel blockers). For diabetes drugs, genetically mimicked metformin was associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. No associations were found for genetically mimicked statins, ezetimibe, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 inhibitors, ß-blockers, and calcium channel blockers may prolong lifespan in the general population, particularly men. Treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or LDLR and metformin may be relevant to both sexes. Whether other null findings are attributable to lack of efficacy requires investigation. Further investigation of repurposing should be conducted.

Assessing the safety of lipid-modifying medications among Chinese adolescents: a drug-target Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: With increasing hypercholesterolemia prevalence in East Asian adolescents, pharmacologic interventions (e.g., HMGCR inhibitors (statins) and PCSK9 inhibitors) may have to be considered although their longer-term safety in the general adolescent population is unclear. This study aims to investigate the longer-term safety of HMGCR inhibitors and PCSK9 inhibitors among East Asian adolescents using genetics. METHODS: A drug-target Mendelian randomization study leveraging the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium (East Asian, n = 146,492) and individual-level data from Chinese participants in the Biobank clinical follow-up of Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" birth cohort (n = 3443, aged ~ 17.6 years). Safety outcomes (n = 100) included anthropometric and hematological traits, renal, liver, lung function, and other nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Positive control outcomes were cholesterol markers from the "Children of 1997" birth cohort and coronary artery disease from Biobank Japan. RESULTS: Genetic inhibition of HMGCR and PCSK9 were associated with reduction in cholesterol-related NMR metabolomics, e.g., apolipoprotein B (HMGCR: beta [95% CI], - 1.06 [- 1.52 to - 0.60]; PCSK9: - 0.93 [- 1.56 to - 0.31]) and had the expected effect on the positive control outcomes. After correcting for multiple comparisons (p-value < 0.006), genetic inhibition of HMGCR was associated with lower linoleic acid - 0.79 [- 1.25 to - 0.35]. Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 was not associated with the safety outcomes assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Statins and PCSK9 inhibitors in East Asian adolescents appeared to be safe based on the outcomes concerned. Larger studies were warranted to verify these findings. This study serves as a proof of principle study to inform the medication safety among adolescents via genetics.

The relationship of fatty acids to ischaemic heart disease and lifespan in men and women using Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Observationally, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have health benefits compared with saturated fatty acids (SFAs); randomized controlled trials suggest fewer benefits. We used uni- and multi-variable Mendelian randomization to assess the association of major fatty acids and their sub-species with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) overall and sex-specifically and with lifespan sex-specifically, given differing lifespan by sex. METHODS: We obtained strong (P <5x10-8), independent (r2<0.001) genetic predictors of fatty acids from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in a random subset of 114 999 UK Biobank participants. We applied these genetic predictors to the Cardiogram IHD GWAS (cases = 60 801, controls = 123 504) and to the Finngen consortium GWAS (cases = 31 640, controls = 187 152) for replication and to the UK Biobank for sex-specific IHD and for lifespan based on parental attained age (fathers = 415 311, mothers = 412 937). We used sensitivity analysis and assessed sex differences where applicable. RESULTS: PUFAs were associated with IHD [odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.44] and lifespan in men (-0.76 years, 95% CI -1.34 to -0.17) but not women (0.20, 95% CI -0.32 to 0.70). Findings were similar for omega-6 fatty acids and linoleic acid. Independent associations of SFAs, mono-unsaturated fatty acids or omega-3 fatty acids with IHD overall or lifespan in men and women were limited. CONCLUSIONS: PUFAs, via specific subspecies, may contribute to disparities in lifespan by sex. Sex-specific dietary advice might be a start towards personalized public health and addressing inequities.

Breastfeeding and ApoB in late adolescence: a Hong Kong birth cohort study.

Breastfeeding is widely promoted. Experimental evidence concerning long-term benefits is limited. Observational studies are open to bias from confounding by socio-economic position. We assessed the association of breastfeeding with late adolescent lipid sub-fractions, particularly apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-c), overall and by sex. We took advantage of a setting where breastfeeding has little association with higher socio-economic position and where several results from randomized controlled trials of breastfeeding promotion have been replicated. We used the population-representative "Children of 1997" birth cohort comprising 88% of births in Hong Kong in April and May 1997. Associations of breastfeeding in the first 3 months of life (never, mixed, exclusive) with lipid sub-fractions were obtained using linear regression adjusted for potential confounders including parental socio-economic position, maternal place of birth, type of delivery, gestational age, and birth weight. Differences by sex were assessed. Multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting were used to recover the original sample. Of the 3462 participants included, mean age was 17.6 years and 48.8% were girls. Mean ApoB was 0.74 g/L (standard deviation 0.15). Exclusive versus never breastfeeding was associated with lower ApoB (-0.027 g/L, 95% confidence interval (CI)-0.046 to-0.007, p = 0.007) and lower non-HDL-c (-0.143 mmol/L, 95% CI-0.237 to-0.048) with similar estimates by sex. CONCLUSION: Breastfeeding may provide some population-level lifelong protection against cardiovascular disease. This study supports policies promoting breastfeeding as a modifiable exposure that contributes to a healthy start in life as an investment for lifelong cardiovascular disease prevention. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Apolipoprotein B (ApoB) is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but whether breastfeeding affects ApoB in later life overall and by sex is unknown. WHAT IS NEW: • Exclusive breastfeeding in the first 3 months of life was associated with lower ApoB in late adolescence, with similar estimates for both sexes. • The inverse association of breastfeeding with ApoB suggests that breastfeeding could reduce cardiovascular disease and overall mortality over the lifespan.

The influence of growth and sex hormones on risk of alzheimer's disease: a mendelian randomization study.

Alzheimer's disease is more prevalent in women, possibly due to sex or growth hormones but existing evidence is inconclusive. We investigated whether genetically predicted sex and growth hormones are associated with risk of Alzheimer's disease. Genetic variants strongly and independently predicting insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were obtained from large, published genome wide associations studies (GWAS) and applied to GWAS of Alzheimer's disease based on clinical diagnosis (cases = 21,982, control = 41,944) from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project and the UK Biobank parental (maternal cases = 27,696; paternal cases = 14,338) and siblings' diagnosis (cases = 2,171) as proxy cases. Published GWAS summary statistics were used in our analyses. Estimates were obtained from inverse variance weighting with sensitivity analysis (i.e., MR-Egger, weighted median and MR-PRESSO). Multivariable analyses adjusted for pleiotropic effects and possible sources of selection bias were also performed. Genetically predicted higher total testosterone may reduce the risk of paternal Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio (OR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.97, per SD increase in testosterone) and in meta-analysis for women (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87, 0.98) with directionally similar results from other analyses. SHBG were not associated with Alzheimer's disease. IGF-1 in women was inversely associated with risk of clinical Alzheimer's disease in sensitivity analysis but not in the main analysis. These results suggest genetically predicted higher total testosterone may lower risk of Alzheimer's disease. The role of testosterone and the immune system in Alzheimer's disease could be further investigated.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug target gene associations with major depressive disorders: a Mendelian randomisation study integrating GWAS, eQTL and mQTL Data.

Previous observational studies reported associations between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and major depressive disorder (MDD), however, these associations are often inconsistent and underlying biological mechanisms are still poorly understood. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to examine relationships between genetic variants and NSAID target gene expression or DNA methylation (DNAm) using publicly available expression, methylation quantitative trait loci (eQTL or mQTL) data and genetic variant-disease associations from genome-wide association studies (GWAS of MDD). We also assessed drug exposure using gene expression and DNAm levels of NSAID targets as proxies. Genetic variants were robustly adjusted for multiple comparisons related to gene expression, DNAm was used as MR instrumental variables and GWAS statistics of MDD as the outcome. A 1-standard deviation (SD) lower expression of NEU1 in blood was related to lower C-reactive protein (CRP) levels of -0.215 mg/L (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.128-0.426) and a decreased risk of MDD (odds ratio [OR] = 0.806; 95% CI: 0.735-0.885; p = 5.36 × 10-6). A concordant direction of association was also observed for NEU1 DNAm levels in blood and a risk of MDD (OR = 0.886; 95% CI: 0.836-0.939; p = 4.71 × 10-5). Further, the genetic variants associated with MDD were mediated by NEU1 expression via DNAm (ß = -0.519; 95% CI: -0.717 to -0.320256; p = 3.16 × 10-7). We did not observe causal relationships between inflammatory genetic marker estimations and MDD risk. Yet, we identified a concordant association of NEU1 messenger RNA and an adverse direction of association of higher NEU1 DNAm with MDD risk. These results warrant increased pharmacovigilance and further in vivo or in vitro studies to investigate NEU1 inhibitors or supplements for MDD.

Association of growth patterns during infancy and puberty with lung function, wheezing and asthma in adolescents aged 17.5 years: evidence from 'Children of 1997' Hong Kong Chinese Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Rapid growth is related to adverse respiratory outcomes although possibly confounded or limited by growth modelling methods. We investigated the association of infant and pubertal growth with lung function, wheezing and asthma in a non-Western setting. METHODS: In Hong Kong's 'Children of 1997' Chinese birth cohort (n = 8327), weight during infancy and weight, height and body mass index (BMI) during puberty were modelled using a super-imposition by translation and rotation model to identify (larger or smaller) size, (earlier or later) tempo and (slower or faster) velocity. Sex-specific associations with forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), FEV1/FVC (Global Lung function Initiative z-score) and self-reported wheezing and asthma at ∼17.5 years were assessed. RESULTS: For each fraction higher than average weight growth velocity during infancy, FVC was higher in boys (0.90 SD, 95% CI 0.35; 1.44) and girls (0.77 SD, 95% CI 0.24; 1.30), FEV1/FVC was lower (-0.74 SD, 95% CI -1.38; -0.10) and wheezing was higher (odds ratio 6.92, 95% CI 1.60; 29.99) in boys and an inverse association with FVC was observed for tempo but not for size. Associations for weight growth velocity in puberty were similar but weaker. Greater size and higher velocity of BMI growth was associated with higher FVC, lower FEV1/FVC and higher asthma and wheezing risk. CONCLUSION: Accelerated infant and pubertal weight growth were associated with disproportionate lung size and airway growth, and higher risk of asthma; optimizing early-life growth patterns could be important.

Effect of puerarin supplementation on cardiovascular disease risk factors: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2-way crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Cell culture and animal studies suggest puerarin could prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, trials in human are scare, not primarily designed for prevention, and inadequately powered. We assessed the effect of puerarin supplementation on CVD risk factors in men using a crossover trial. METHODS: In total, 217 Chinese men aged 18-50 years without a history of CVD were recruited. They were randomized to take a puerarin supplement (90.2 mg daily) or a placebo, followed by a 4-week wash-out period, and then crossed over to the other intervention. An intention-to-treat analysis was used. Differences in primary outcomes (lipid profile such as low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol) and secondary outcomes (other CVD risk factors such as blood pressure and fasting glucose, and some potential mediating pathways such as testosterone) between supplementation and placebo within participants were compared using a paired t-test, or a crossover (CROS)-based analysis where a period effect existed. RESULTS: Lipid profile was similar after the puerarin supplementation or placebo (e.g., mean difference in LDL cholesterol: -0.02 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.09 to -0.06). Conversely, fasting glucose was reduced after the puerarin supplementation (-0.13 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.25 to -0.008). There were no differences in blood pressure, testosterone, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, prothrombin time, liver or renal function. CONCLUSION: In young-to-middle-aged Chinese men, short-term puerarin supplementation did not improve the primary outcome of lipid profile, but an exploratory analysis suggested that puerarin could be beneficial for one of the secondary outcomes, i.e., fasting glucose.

Development and validation of the EHS-COPD model to predict sex-specific risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in older Chinese adults: Hong Kong's Elderly Health Service Cohort.

BACKGROUND: No screening program is recommended for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in adults based on current clinical practice guidelines. Risk prediction models for COPD developed in Western settings may not be directly applicable to older Chinese adults. To evaluate the performance of an existing risk prediction model for COPD developed in a Western setting in Chinese adults and investigate whether a new risk prediction model performs better in predicting 5-year risk of COPD (EHS-COPD). METHODS: This study is based on 135,822 participants aged 65+ years from Hong Kong's Elderly Health Service (EHS) cohort. We assessed the performance of an existing risk prediction model in the entire cohort, and in a random sub-sample of 91,133 participants, we recalibrated the existing model and derived a new model using extended Cox proportional hazards regression. Candidate risk predictors from the literature and the EHS cohort were considered for inclusion. Risk prediction performance, discrimination, and calibration of the newly derived models were assessed in the remaining 44,689 participants. RESULTS: The existing risk prediction model overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD in older Chinese adults (65+ years); after recalibration, it still overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD for both men and women. The new EHS-COPD risk prediction model, including time-varying factors (i.e., age and smoking status) and time-invariant factors (i.e., education level, public assistance, alcohol use, body mass index, physical activity, existing hypertension, recent falls, cognitive function, and self-rated health status), had an improved performance. For men, EHS-COPD explained 19.5% of COPD risk, the D statistic was 23.1, and Harrell's C statistic was 0.93. The corresponding values for women were 8.5%, 21.1, and 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: The existing COPD risk prediction model overpredicted COPD risk in older Chinese and could not be recalibrated to predict well. A revised prediction model using time-invariant and time-varying factors provides a better tool for identifying older Chinese adults at high risk of developing COPD.

Do deaths from competing risks influence COPD patterns in China and high socio-demographic index countries?: a cross-sectional analysis of summary statistics from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To explore possible reasons for the difference in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence/mortality rates between China and high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. DESIGN: A cross-sectional analysis of summary statistics from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. PARTICIPANTS: Data were publicly available and de-identified, and individuals were not involved. MEASUREMENT AND METHODS: We extracted the age-standardised and age-specific incidence/mortality rates, and risk factors attributed to COPD in China and high SDI countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We first described differences in COPD patterns (ie, incidence and mortality rates) in China and high SDI countries briefly, and then explored possible reasons for driving such differences by comparing rankings for six well-established COPD risk factors and estimating change points in age-specific incidence and mortality rates for COPD and several commonly encountered competing risks using segmented regression models. RESULTS: Differences in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates for COPD between China and high SDI countries converged during 1990-2017 but still differed, particularly for mortality rates. Smoking was the leading attributable risk factor followed by ambient air pollution, with higher rankings for occupational risks in China than in high SDI countries. The change point was ~80 years for age-specific COPD mortality rate in both China and high SDI countries. However, the change point for COPD incidence was 5-year later in China (~65 years) than in high SDI countries (~60 years). The change points for mortality rates due to competing risks (eg, ischaemic heart disease) also varied between settings. CONCLUSION: Differences in risk factors largely shaped the differences in COPD patterns between China and high SDI countries. Varying patterns of mortality due to competing risks might also contribute to the discrepancy in COPD mortality rates, by affecting the survival of the underlying population.

Timing of Pubertal Development and Midlife Blood Pressure in Men and Women: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies suggest earlier puberty is associated with higher adulthood blood pressure (BP), but these findings have not been replicated using Mendelian randomization (MR). We examined this question sex-specifically using larger genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with more extensive measures of pubertal timing. METHODS: We obtained genetic instruments proxying pubertal maturation (age at menarche [AAM] or voice breaking [AVB]) from the largest published GWAS. We applied them to summary sex-specific genetic associations with systolic and diastolic BP z-scores, and self-reported hypertension in women (n = 194 174) and men (n = 167 020) from the UK Biobank, using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses using other MR methods, including multivariable MR adjusted for childhood obesity proxied by body mass index (BMI). We used late pubertal growth as a validation outcome. RESULTS: AAM (beta per 1-year later = -0.030 [95% confidence interval, -0.055 to -0.005] and AVB (beta -0.058 [95% CI, -0.100 to -0.015]) were inversely associated with systolic BP independent of childhood BMI, as were diastolic BP (-0.035 [95% CI, -0.060 to -0.009] for AAM and -0.046 [95% CI, -0.089 to -0.004] for AVB) and self-reported hypertension (odds ratio 0.89 [95% CI, 0.84-0.95] for AAM and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.96] for AVB). AAM and AVB were positively associated with late pubertal growth, as expected. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis using other MR methods. CONCLUSION: Timing of pubertal maturation was associated with adulthood BP independent of childhood BMI, highlighting the role of pubertal maturation timing in midlife BP.

Maternal respiratory health and intrauterine exposure-driven birthweight: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observationally, poorer maternal respiratory health is associated with poorer birth outcomes, possibly confounded by socioeconomic position and other maternal attributes. We used multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain unconfounded estimates of effect of maternal lung function on birthweight, independent of maternal height. METHODS: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in women were obtained from publicly available summary statistics from the UK Biobank. SNPs for asthma were obtained from the Trans-National Asthma Genetic consortium. SNPs for height in women were obtained from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits consortium and the genetic estimates were obtained the UK Biobank. The genetic associations with maternally-driven birthweight were obtained from the Early Growth Genetics consortium. Multivariable MR estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting with multivariable MR-Egger as sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Maternal lung capacity, as indicated by FVC, was positively associated with maternally-driven birthweight (0.08 per standard deviation, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15) independent of maternal height, whereas no clear such associations were shown for maternal airway function, indicated by FEV1 and peak expiratory flow, or for asthma, on maternally-driven birthweight. Similar findings were shown using MR-Egger. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that maternal lung function, especially lung capacity independent of maternal height, is directly associated with maternally-driven birthweight, and highlights the importance of maternal respiratory health in fetal growth.

Blood pressure and risk of cancer: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Previous large observational cohort studies showed higher blood pressure (BP) positively associated with cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain less confounded estimates of BP on total and site-specific cancers. METHODS: We applied replicated genetic instruments for systolic and diastolic BP to summary genetic associations with total cancer (37387 cases, 367856 non-cases) from the UK Biobank, and 17 site-specific cancers (663-17881 cases) from a meta-analysis of the UK Biobank and the Kaiser Permanente Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging. We used inverse-variance weighting with multiplicative random effects as the main analysis, and sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, MR-Egger and multivariable MR adjusted for body mass index and for smoking. For validation, we included breast (Breast Cancer Association Consortium: 133384 cases, 113789 non-cases), prostate (Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome Consortium: 79194 cases, 61112 non-cases) and lung (International Lung and Cancer Consortium: 10246 cases, 38295 non-cases) cancer from large consortia. We used asthma as a negative control outcome. RESULTS: Systolic and diastolic BP were unrelated to total cancer (OR 0.98 per standard deviation higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89, 1.07] and OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.92, 1.08]) and to site-specific cancers after accounting for multiple testing, with consistent findings from consortia. BP was nominally associated with melanoma and possibly kidney cancer, and as expected, not associated with asthma. Sensitivity analyses using other MR methods gave similar results. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous observational evidence, BP does not appear to be a risk factor for cancer, although an effect on melanoma and kidney cancer cannot be excluded. Other targets for cancer prevention might be more relevant.

Credible Mendelian Randomization Studies in the Presence of Selection Bias Using Control Exposures.

Selection bias is increasingly acknowledged as a limitation of Mendelian randomization (MR). However, few methods exist to assess this issue. We focus on two plausible causal structures relevant to MR studies and illustrate the data-generating process underlying selection bias via simulation studies. We conceptualize the use of control exposures to validate MR estimates derived from selected samples by detecting potential selection bias and reproducing the exposure-outcome association of primary interest based on subject matter knowledge. We discuss the criteria for choosing the control exposures. We apply the proposal in an MR study investigating the potential effect of higher transferrin with stroke (including ischemic and cardioembolic stroke) using transferrin saturation and iron status as control exposures. Theoretically, selection bias affects associations of genetic instruments with the outcome in selected samples, violating the exclusion-restriction assumption and distorting MR estimates. Our applied example showing inconsistent effects of genetically predicted higher transferrin and higher transferrin saturation on stroke suggests the potential selection bias. Furthermore, the expected associations of genetically predicted higher iron status on stroke and longevity indicate no systematic selection bias. The routine use of control exposures in MR studies provides a valuable tool to validate estimated causal effects. Like the applied example, an antagonist, decoy, or exposure with similar biological activity as the exposure of primary interest, which has the same potential selection bias sources as the exposure-outcome association, is suggested as the control exposure. An additional or a validated control exposure with a well-established association with the outcome is also recommended to explore possible systematic selection bias.

The total and direct effects of systolic and diastolic blood pressure on cardiovascular disease and longevity using Mendelian randomisation.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guidelines lowered the hypertension threshold to ≥ 130/80 mmHg, but the role of diastolic BP remains contested. This two-sample mendelian randomisation study used replicated genetic variants predicting systolic and diastolic BP applied to the UK Biobank and large genetic consortia, including of cardiovascular diseases and parental lifespan, to obtain total and direct effects. Systolic and diastolic BP had positive total effects on CVD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 2.37 and OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.73, 2.11, respectively). Direct effects were similar for systolic BP (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48, 2.25) but completely attenuated for diastolic BP (1.18, 95% CI 0.97, 1.44), although diastolic BP was associated with coronary artery disease (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03, 1.50). Systolic and diastolic BP had similarly negative total (- 0.20 parental attained age z-score, 95% CI - 0.22, - 0.17 and - 0.17, 95% CI - 0.20, - 0.15, respectively) and direct negative effects on longevity. Our findings suggest systolic BP has larger direct effects than diastolic BP on CVD, but both have negative effects (total and direct) on longevity, supporting the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines lowering both BP targets.

Mendelian randomization study on atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease subtypes.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with numerous diseases. However, whether AF is a cause or consequence of these diseases is uncertain. To clarify, we assessed the causal role of AF on ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, other cardiovascular disease (CVD) subtypes, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and late-onset AD using bi-directional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) among people primarily of European descent. Genetically predicted log odds of AF was associated with any stroke (odds ratio (OR) 1.22, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.27), particularly cardioembolic stroke and possibly subdural hemorrhage, with sensitivity analyses showing similar positive findings. Genetically predicted AF was also associated with arterial thromboembolism (1.32, 1.13 to 1.53), and heart failure (1.26, 1.21 to 1.30). No association of genetically predicted AF with IHD, T2DM, cognitive function, or late-onset AD was found. Conversely, genetically predicted IHD, heart failure and possibly ischemic stroke, particularly cardioembolic stroke, were positively associated with AF. Atrial fibrillation plays a role in any stroke, arterial thromboembolism, and heart failure, corroborating current clinical guidelines on the importance of preventing these complications by effective AF management. In addition, patients with IHD, heart failure or possibly ischemic stroke might be predisposed to developing AF, with implications for management.

Mendelian randomization study of interleukin (IL)-1 family and lung cancer.

The role of interleukin (IL)-1 family members/receptors in lung cancer remains uncertain due to the susceptibility of observed associations to confounding. We appraised the association of IL-1 family members/receptors with lung cancer and its subtypes [lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and squamous cell lung cancer (LUSC)] using two-sample Mendelian randomization. This study found that no IL-1 family members/receptors were significantly associated with lung cancer and its subtypes risk after correction for multiple testing. However, suggestive total effects of increased risk were noted for genetically predicted IL-1Racp with lung cancer (P = 0.006), IL-1α with LUAD (P = 0.027), and IL-1Racp with LUSC (P = 0.008). Suggestive direct effects were also noted for IL-1ß, IL-1Ra, IL-36γ with lung cancer, IL-1α/ß, IL-1Ra with LUAD, and IL-1ß, IL-18BP with LUSC, after adjusting for genetically predicted effects of other IL-1 family members/receptors. Taken together, our findings suggest that interventions decreasing IL-1Racp might protect against lung cancer, perhaps via IL-1α/ß or IL-1Ra.

Genetic Evidence on the Association of Interleukin (IL)-1-Mediated Chronic Inflammation with Airflow Obstruction: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Preclinical studies suggest interleukin (IL)-1α/ß is involved in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, recent trials of anti-IL-1 therapies showed limited benefit for COPD. To clarify, we primarily examined total and direct effects of IL-1 and its receptors/coreceptors/receptor antagonists (IL-1/IL-1Rs) on airflow obstruction (AO) using Mendelian randomization (MR), and secondarily explored reverse causation using bidirectional MR. We selected independent cis protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs) as genetic instruments for IL-1/IL-1Rs from two proteomic genome-wide association studies (n = 11,594) of European ancestry (mean age ∼47 years). We applied those cis-pQTLs to the International COPD Genetics Consortium (n = 15,256 cases, 47,936 controls) of ∼81.9% European descent (∼57 years). No IL-1/IL-1Rs were significantly associated with AO after correction for multiple testing. However, a higher genetically predicted IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) was nominally associated with a 20% reduction in AO risk using univariable MR, with a larger direct effect (∼31%, i.e. not via IL-1α/ß) using multivariable MR. Furthermore, higher total IL-18 binding protein (IL-18BP) was nominally associated with lower AO. Nominal total effects were also noted for higher IL-1α with lower AO and higher IL-1R1 with higher AO. Higher IL-1Ra and IL-18BP might have a role in preventing AO, but need to be contextualized.Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/15412555.2021.1955848 .