ABSTRACT
Objective - to determine the prognostic value of factors that affect the long-term result of surgical treatment of metatarsalgia, to develop a system for predicting the results of surgical treatment of metatarsalgia. A prospective trial of long-term results of surgical treatment of 172 patients with metatarsalgia was conducted from 2000 to 2019. Two study groups were formed: the core study group comprising of 107 patients who underwent Weil-osteotomy, metatarsals proximal osteotomy. The control group consisted of 65 patients who underwent another surgical treatment (metatarsophalangeal resection arthroplasty, surgery of capsular-ligamentous and tendon apparatus of metatarsophalangeal joints, as well as the surgical therapy intended to remove only hammer 2-4 toes deformities). Clinical, instrumental and statistical (correlation-regression analysis) research methods were used. The factors that influenced the end result of treatment were identified. The statistically significant influence of age, sex, BMI < 25, "index minus" and hammer 2-4 toes on the prevalence of positive treatment results were determined. The estimation of the informative nature of the presented factors for the probability of achieving positive results of treatment, the calculation of the prognostic coefficients and their sum were determined. The system for predicting treatment results of metatarsalgia involves the possibility of obtaining a high, medium and low probability of a positive result when applying surgical treatment. The long-term result of surgical treatment of metatarsalgia under the heads of 2 - 4 metatarsals depends on age and factor "hammer 2-4 toes". A high prognostic evaluation of a successful treatment outcome should be expected with a total prognosis of + 6 to +16; a total estimate of prognostic coefficients from + 6 to +16 determines the average probability of positive treatment results; the sum of the prognostic coefficients from - 10 to - 2 determines the low probability of achieving positive treatment results.
