Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition.

We develop a novel approach to analysing decarbonisation strategies by linking global resource inventories with demographic systems. Our 'mine-town systems' approach establishes an empirical basis for examining the spatial extent of the transition and demographic effects of changing energy systems. The research highlights an urgent need for targeted macro-level planning as global markets see a decline in thermal coal and a ramp up of other mining commodities. Our findings suggest that ramping up energy transition metals (ETM) could be more disruptive to demographic systems than ramping down coal. The data shows asymmetry in the distribution of risks: mine-town systems within the United States are most sensitive to coal phase-out, while systems in Australia and Canada are most sensitive to ETM phase-in. A complete phase-out of coal could disrupt demographic systems with a minimum of 33.5 million people, and another 115.7 million people if all available ETM projects enter production.

Global Scan of Disruptions to the Mine Life Cycle: Price, Ownership, and Local Impact.

Criticality and supply risk models seek to address concerns of potential disruption to global metal supply. These models need to incorporate disruption events that arise from within the mining industry's market structure. In this paper, we review what we refer to as events of "mine life cycle disruption". These include project abandonments, premature closures, care and maintenance, and ownership changes. Life cycle disruptions not only cause production disruptions but also embed social and environmental risks in global metal markets. They arise from the highly variable business environment in which the resources sector operates. Changing commodity prices directly influence mining revenues and drive decisions on whether to halt or push forward a project. While some disruptions are involuntary and induced by external economic conditions, others are purposefully triggered by certain mining companies that use them to their advantage. We examine the frequency of these disruptions based on a contemporary global inventory of 35,000 mining projects and present the findings against recent developments in the research literature. We conclude that life cycle disruption events are an important consideration in balancing the demand for metals and the social and environmental impacts of mining and propose pathways for managing these events and their effects.

Governing deep sea mining in the face of uncertainty.

Progress towards deep sea mining (DSM) is driven by projected demands for metals and the desire for economic development. DSM remains controversial, with some political leaders calling for a moratorium on DSM pending further research into its impacts. This paper highlights the need for governance architectures that are tailored to DSM. We conceptualise DSM as a type of complex orebody, which encompasses the breadth of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks that make a mineral source complex. Applying a spatial overlay approach, we show that there are significant data gaps in understanding the ESG risks of DSM. Such uncertainties are compounded by fact that there are no extant commercial DSM projects to function as a precedent - either in terms of project design, or the impacts of design on environment and people. Examining the legislation of the Cook Islands and International Seabed Authority, we demonstrate how regulators are defaulting to terrestrial mining governance architectures, which cannot be meaningfully implemented until a fuller understanding of the ESG risk landscape is developed. We argue that DSM be approached as a distinct extractive industry type, and governed with its unique features in frame.

The social and environmental complexities of extracting energy transition metals.

Environmental, social and governance pressures should feature in future scenario planning about the transition to a low carbon future. As low-carbon energy technologies advance, markets are driving demand for energy transition metals. Increased extraction rates will augment the stress placed on people and the environment in extractive locations. To quantify this stress, we develop a set of global composite environmental, social and governance indicators, and examine mining projects across 20 metal commodities to identify the co-occurrence of environmental, social and governance risk factors. Our findings show that 84% of platinum resources and 70% of cobalt resources are located in high-risk contexts. Reflecting heightened demand, major metals like iron and copper are set to disturb more land. Jurisdictions extracting energy transition metals in low-risk contexts are positioned to develop and maintain safeguards against mining-related social and environmental risk factors.

Source Risks As Constraints to Future Metal Supply.

Rising consumer demand is driving concerns around the "availability" and "criticality" of metals. Methodologies have emerged to assess the risks related to global metal supply. None have specifically examined the initial supply source: the mine site where primary ore is extracted. Environmental, social, and governance ("ESG") risks are critical to the development of new mining projects and the conversion of resources to mine production. In this paper, we offer a methodology that assesses the inherent complexities surrounding extractives projects. It includes eight ESG risk categories that overlay the locations of undeveloped iron, copper, and aluminum orebodies that will be critical to future supply. The percentage of global reserves and resources that are located in complex ESG contexts (i.e., with four or more concurrent medium-to-high risks) is 47% for iron, 63% for copper, and 88% for aluminum. This work contributes to research by providing a more complete understanding of source level constraints and risks to supply.