A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees.

Capital flows is an important aspect of the international monetary system because they provide great direct and indirect benefits, and at the same time, they carry risks of vulnerability for countries with an open economy. Numerous works have studied the behavior of these flows and have developed models to predict sudden stop events. However, the existing models have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been developed for emerging countries. This paper presents a new prediction model of sudden stop events of capital flows for both emerging countries and developed countries with the ability to estimate accurately future sudden stop scenarios globally. A sample of 103 countries was used, including 73 emerging countries and 30 developed countries, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, a method of decision trees has been applied, which has provided excellent prediction results given its ability to learn characteristics and create long-term dependencies from sequential data and time series. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from sudden stops of capital flows, providing tools that help to achieve financial stability at the global level.

Genome-Wide Identification and Functional Classification of Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) Aldehyde Dehydrogenase (ALDH) Gene Superfamily.

Aldehyde dehydrogenases (ALDHs) is a protein superfamily that catalyzes the oxidation of aldehyde molecules into their corresponding non-toxic carboxylic acids, and responding to different environmental stresses, offering promising genetic approaches for improving plant adaptation. The aim of the current study is the functional analysis for systematic identification of S. lycopersicum ALDH gene superfamily. We performed genome-based ALDH genes identification and functional classification, phylogenetic relationship, structure and catalytic domains analysis, and microarray based gene expression. Twenty nine unique tomato ALDH sequences encoding 11 ALDH families were identified, including a unique member of the family 19 ALDH. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 13 groups, with a conserved relationship among ALDH families. Functional structure analysis of ALDH2 showed a catalytic mechanism involving Cys-Glu couple. However, the analysis of ALDH3 showed no functional gene duplication or potential neo-functionalities. Gene expression analysis reveals that particular ALDH genes might respond to wounding stress increasing the expression as ALDH2B7. Overall, this study reveals the complexity of S. lycopersicum ALDH gene superfamily and offers new insights into the structure-functional features and evolution of ALDH gene families in vascular plants. The functional characterization of ALDHs is valuable and promoting molecular breeding in tomato for the improvement of stress tolerance and signaling.