ABSTRACT
We present and characterize a multi-host epidemic model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus in East Africa with geographic spread on a network, rule-based mitigation measures, and mosquito infection and population dynamics. Susceptible populations are depleted by disease and vaccination and are replenished with the birth of new animals. We observe that the severity of the epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of the rainy season and that even severe epidemics are abruptly terminated when the rain stops. Because naturally acquired herd immunity is established, total mortality across 25 years is relatively insensitive to many mitigation approaches. Strong reductions in cattle mortality are expected, however, with sufficient reduction in population densities of either vectors or susceptible (ie. unvaccinated) hosts. A better understanding of RVF epidemiology would result from serology surveys to quantify the importance of herd immunity in epidemic control, and sequencing of virus from representative animals to quantify the realative importance of transportation and local reservoirs in nucleating yearly epidemics. Our results suggest that an effective multi-layered mitigation strategy would include vector control, movement control, and vaccination of young animals yearly, even in the absence of expected rainfall.
ABSTRACT
We present a model intended for rapid sampling of ground and excited state potential energy surfaces for first-row transition metal active sites. The method is computationally inexpensive and is suited for dynamics simulations where (1) adiabatic states are required "on-the-fly" and (2) the primary source of the electronic coupling between the diabatic states is the perturbative spin-orbit interaction among the 3d electrons. The model Hamiltonian we develop is a variant of the Anderson impurity model and achieves efficiency through a physically motivated basis set reduction based on the large value of the d-d Coulomb interaction U(d) and a Lanczos matrix diagonalization routine to solve for eigenvalues. The model parameters are constrained by fits to the partial density of states obtained from ab initio density functional theory calculations. For a particular application of our model we focus on electron transfer occurring between cobalt ions solvated by ammonium, incorporating configuration interaction between multiplet states for both metal ions. We demonstrate the capability of the method to efficiently calculate adiabatic potential energy surfaces and the electronic coupling factor we have calculated compares well to previous calculations and experiment. (
