Spatiotemporal bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Scorpion stings in Brazil represent a major public health problem due to their incidence and their potential ability to lead to severe and often fatal clinical outcomes. A better understanding of scorpionism determinants is essential for a precise comprehension of accident dynamics and to guide public policy. Our study is the first to model the spatio-temporal variability of scorpionism across municipalities in São Paulo (SP) and to investigate its relationship with demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and climatic variables. METHODOLOGY: This ecological study analyzed secondary data on scorpion envenomation in SP from 2008 to 2021, using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to perform Bayesian inference for detection of areas and periods with the most suitable conditions for scorpionism. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From the spring of 2008 to 2021, the relative risk (RR) increased eight times in SP, from 0.47 (95%CI 0.43-0.51) to 3.57 (95%CI 3.36-3.78), although there has been an apparent stabilization since 2019. The western, northern, and northwestern parts of SP showed higher risks; overall, there was a 13% decrease in scorpionism during winters. Among the covariates considered, an increase of one standard deviation in the Gini index, which captures income inequality, was associated with a 11% increase in scorpion envenomation. Maximum temperatures were also associated with scorpionism, with risks doubling for temperatures above 36°C. Relative humidity displayed a nonlinear association, with a 50% increase in risk for 30-32% humidity and reached a minimum of 0.63 RR for 75-76% humidity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperatures, lower humidity, and social inequalities were associated with a higher risk of scorpionism in SP municipalities. By capturing local and temporal relationships across space and time, authorities can design more effective strategies that adhere to local and temporal considerations.

Spatiotemporal bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Background Scorpion stings in Brazil represent a major public health problem due to their incidence and their potential ability to lead to severe and often fatal clinical outcomes. A better understanding of scorpionism determinants is essential for a precise comprehension of accident dynamics and to guide public policy. Our study is the first to model the spatio-temporal variability of scorpionism across municipalities in São Paulo (SP) and to investigate its relationship with demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and climatic variables. Methodology This ecological study analyzed secondary data on scorpion envenomation in SP from 2008 to 2021, using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to perform Bayesian inference for detection of areas and periods with the most suitable conditions for scorpionism. Principal findings From the spring of 2008 to 2021, the relative risk (RR) increased eight times in SP, from 0.47 (95%CI 0.43–0.51) to 3.57 (95%CI 3.36–3.78), although there has been an apparent stabilization since 2019. The western, northern, and northwestern parts of SP showed higher risks; overall, there was a 13% decrease in scorpionism during winters. Among the covariates considered, an increase of one standard deviation in the Gini index, which captures income inequality, was associated with a 11% increase in scorpion envenomation. Maximum temperatures were also associated with scorpionism, with risks doubling for temperatures above 36°C. Relative humidity displayed a nonlinear association, with a 50% increase in risk for 30–32% humidity and reached a minimum of 0.63 RR for 75–76% humidity. Conclusions Higher temperatures, lower humidity, and social inequalities were associated with a higher risk of scorpionism in SP municipalities. By capturing local and temporal relationships across space and time, authorities can design more effective strategies that adhere to local and temporal considerations.

Scorpion envenomation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: Spatiotemporal analysis of a growing public health concern.

Scorpion envenomation is a significant public health concern in São Paulo, Brazil, and its incidence and mortality have increased in recent decades. The present study analyzed documented scorpion envenomation notifications from 2008 to 2018 throughout the 645 municipalities of São Paulo. Annual incidence and mortality rates were calculated and stratified according to sex and age. The local empirical Bayesian method and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic were used to represent standardized incidence rates in the municipalities and to identify high- and low-risk agglomerates. The incidence rate of scorpion envenomation quintupled between 2008 and 2018. Overall, the risk was higher for man, and increased with age. Deaths due to envenomation, however, were concentrated almost entirely in children 0-9 years of age. Incidence maps showed that the risk of envenomation increased in almost all regions and municipalities of São Paulo throughout the study period. The highest incidence rates were found in the western, northwestern and northern regions of the state, in contrast to the São Paulo metropolitan area and southern and coastal regions. Hot spots were identified in the Presidente Prudente, Barretos, São José do Rio Preto, and Araçatuba regional health districts, which over time formed a single high-risk cluster. In spatial terms, however, deaths were randomly distributed. In this study, we identified areas and populations at risk of scorpion envenomation and associated-fatalities, which can be used to support decision-making by health services to reduce human contact with these arachnids and avoid fatalities, especially in children.

Detection of areas vulnerable to scorpionism and its association with environmental factors in São Paulo, Brazil.

Accidents caused by scorpions are considered a neglected condition and represent a major health problem in most tropical countries, especially for children and elderly people. In Brazil, scorpionism is recurrent in the southeast region, mainly in the state of São Paulo, due to the progressive increase in scorpions found in urban habitats. Thus, our study aimed to provide better insights into the geographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in São Paulo state and identify the environmental factors that are associated with these accidents. This is an ecological and retrospective study with secondary data on scorpion accidents in the state of São Paulo from 2008 to 2018 obtained from the Notifiable Disease Information System. The SatScan software was used to identify the higher- and lower-risk spatiotemporal clusters. A total of 145,464 scorpion sting cases were recorded in the state of São Paulo, between 2008 and 2018; there was a four-fold increase in the incidence rate. Accidents occurred more frequently in the spring season, wherein higher-risk clusters were in the north and northwest regions of the state. High temperatures, low precipitation, and poor natural vegetation are associated with higher risk areas. Our study mapped vulnerable areas for scorpion accidents that can aid in the design of efficient public health policies, which should be intensified during the spring season.

Análise espacial e temporal da ocorrência de acidentes escorpiônicos no Estado de São Paulo / Spatial and temporal analysis of the occurrence of scorpionic accidents in the State of São Paulo

O envenenamento por escorpiões é um importante problema de saúde pública no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, e sua incidência e mortalidade têm aumentado nas últimas décadas. O presente estudo analisou notificações documentadas de envenenamento por escorpião de 2008 a 2018 nos 645 municípios paulistas. As taxas anuais de incidência e mortalidade foram calculadas e padronizadas de acordo com sexo e idade. O método Bayesiano empírico local e a estatística Getis-Ord Gi* foram utilizados para representar as taxas de incidência padronizadas nos municípios e identificar aglomerados de alto e baixo risco. O software SatScan foi usado para identificar os aglomerados espaciais, temporais, sazonais, espaço-temporais e da variação espacial da tendência temporal de maior e menor risco. Foram registrados 145.464 casos de picada de escorpião no estado de São Paulo, entre 2008 e 2018. A taxa de incidência de envenenamento por escorpião quintuplicou entre 2008 e 2018. No geral, o risco foi maior para o homem e aumentou com a idade. As mortes por envenenamento, no entanto, concentraram-se quase inteiramente em crianças de 0 a 9 anos de idade. Os mapas de incidência mostraram que o risco de envenenamento aumentou em quase todas as regiões e municípios de São Paulo ao longo do período estudado. As maiores taxas de incidência foram encontradas nas regiões oeste, noroeste e norte do estado, em contraste com a região metropolitana de São Paulo e regiões sul e litorânea. Os acidentes ocorreram com maior frequência na primavera e foram identificadas áreas de alto risco nas regionais de saúde de Presidente Prudente, Barretos, São José do Rio Preto e Araçatuba, que ao longo do tempo formaram um único aglomerado de alto risco. Em termos espaciais, no entanto, os óbitos foram distribuídos aleatoriamente. Altas temperaturas, baixa precipitação e vegetação natural pobre estão associados a áreas de maior risco. Neste estudo, identificamos áreas e populações em risco de envenenamento por escorpião e fatalidades associadas, que podem ser usadas para apoiar a tomada de decisões dos serviços de saúde para reduzir o contato humano com esses aracnídeos e evitar mortes, principalmente em crianças e durante a primavera.

Scorpion envenomation is a significant public health concern in State of São Paulo, Brazil, and its incidence and mortality have increased in recent decades. The present study analyzed documented scorpion envenomation notifications from 2008 to 2018 throughout the 645 municipalities of São Paulo. Annual incidence and mortality rates were calculated and stratified according to sex and age. The local empirical Bayesian method and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic were used to represent standardized incidence rates in the municipalities and to identify high- and low-risk agglomerates. SatScan software was used to identify spatial, temporal, seasonal, spatio-temporal clusters and the spatial variation of the temporal trend of higher and lower risk A total of 145,464 scorpion sting cases were recorded in the state of São Paulo, between 2008 and 2018. The incidence rate of scorpion envenomation quintupled between 2008 and 2018. Overall, the risk was higher for man, and increased with age. Deaths due to envenomation, however, were concentrated almost entirely in children 09 years of age. Incidence maps showed that the risk of envenomation increased in almost all regions and municipalities of São Paulo throughout the study period. The highest incidence rates were found in the western, northwestern and northern regions of the state, in contrast to the São Paulo metropolitan area and southern and coastal regions. Accidents occurred more frequently in the spring season and hot spots were identified in the Presidente Prudente, Barretos, São José do Rio Preto, and Araçatuba regional health districts, which over time formed a single high-risk cluster. In spatial terms, however, deaths were randomly distributed. High temperatures, low precipitation, and poor natural vegetation are associated with higher risk areas. In this study, we identified areas and populations at risk of scorpion envenomation and associatedfatalities, which can be used to support decision-making by health services to reduce human contact with these arachnids and avoid fatalities, especially in children and during the spring season.

Scorpion envenomation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis of a growing public health concern

Scorpion envenomation is a significant public health concern in São Paulo, Brazil, and its incidence and mortality have increased in recent decades. The present study analyzed documented scorpion envenomation notifications from 2008 to 2018 throughout the 645 municipalities of São Paulo. Annual incidence and mortality rates were calculated and stratified according to sex and age. The local empirical Bayesian method and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic were used to represent standardized incidence rates in the municipalities and to identify high- and low-risk agglomerates. The incidence rate of scorpion envenomation quintupled between 2008 and 2018. Overall, the risk was higher for man, and increased with age. Deaths due to envenomation, however, were concentrated almost entirely in children 0–9 years of age. Incidence maps showed that the risk of envenomation increased in almost all regions and municipalities of São Paulo throughout the study period. The highest incidence rates were found in the western, northwestern and northern regions of the state, in contrast to the São Paulo metropolitan area and southern and coastal regions. Hot spots were identified in the Presidente Prudente, Barretos, São José do Rio Preto, and Araçatuba regional health districts, which over time formed a single high-risk cluster. In spatial terms, however, deaths were randomly distributed. In this study, we identified areas and populations at risk of scorpion envenomation and associated–fatalities, which can be used to support decision-making by health services to reduce human contact with these arachnids and avoid fatalities, especially in children.

Detection of areas vulnerable to scorpionism and its association with environmental factors in São Paulo, Brazil

Accidents caused by scorpions are considered a neglected condition and represent a major health problem in most tropical countries, especially for children and elderly people. In Brazil, scorpionism is recurrent in the southeast region, mainly in the state of São Paulo, due to the progressive increase in scorpions found in urban habitats. Thus, our study aimed to provide better insights into the geographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in São Paulo state and identify the environmental factors that are associated with these accidents. This is an ecological and retrospective study with secondary data on scorpion accidents in the state of São Paulo from 2008 to 2018 obtained from the Notifiable Disease Information System. The SatScan software was used to identify the higher- and lower-risk spatiotemporal clusters. A total of 145,464 scorpion sting cases were recorded in the state of São Paulo, between 2008 and 2018; there was a four-fold increase in the incidence rate. Accidents occurred more frequently in the spring season, wherein higher-risk clusters were in the north and northwest regions of the state. High temperatures, low precipitation, and poor natural vegetation are associated with higher risk areas. Our study mapped vulnerable areas for scorpion accidents that can aid in the design of efficient public health policies, which should be intensified during the spring season.

Detecção de áreas vulneráveis ​​ao escorpionismo e sua associação com fatores ambientais em São Paulo, Brasil / Detection of areas vulnerable to scorpionism and its association with environmental factors in São Paulo, Brazil

Accidents caused by scorpions are considered a neglected condition and represent a major health problem in most tropical countries, especially for children and elderly people. In Brazil, scorpionism is recurrent in the southeast region, mainly in the state of Sao ˜ Paulo, due to the progressive increase in scorpions found in urban habitats. Thus, our study aimed to provide better insights into the geographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in Sao ˜ Paulo state and identify the environmental factors that are associated with these accidents. This is an ecological and retrospective study with secondary data on scorpion accidents in the state of Sao ˜ Paulo from 2008 to 2018 obtained from the Notifiable Disease Information System. The SatScan software was used to identify the higher- and lower-risk spatiotemporal clusters. A total of 145,464 scorpion sting cases were recorded in the state of Sao Paulo, between 2008 and 2018; there was a four-fold increase in the incidence rate. Accidents occurred more frequently in the spring season, wherein higher-risk clusters were in the north and northwest regions of the state. High temperatures, low precipitation, and poor natural vegetation are associated with higher risk areas. Our study mapped vulnerable areas for scorpion accidents that can aid in the design ofefficient public health policies, which should be intensified during the spring season.

Diffusion of sylvatic yellow fever in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

We investigated the sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) diffusion process in São Paulo (SP) between 2016 and 2019. We developed an ecological study of SYF through autochthonous human cases and epizootics of non-human primates (NHPs) that were spatiotemporally evaluated. We used kriging to obtain maps with isochrones representative of the evolution of the outbreak and characterized its diffusion pattern. We confirmed 648 human cases of SYF in SP, with 230 deaths and 843 NHP epizootics. Two outbreak waves were identified: one from West to East (2016 and 2017), and another from the Campinas region to the municipalities bordering Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, and Paraná and those of the SP coast (2017-2019). The SYF outbreak diffusion process was by contagion. The disease did not exhibit jumps between municipalities, indicating that the mosquitoes and NHPs were responsible for transmitting the virus. There were not enough vaccines to meet the population at risk; hence, health authorities used information about the epizootic occurrence in NHPs in forest fragments to identify priority populations for vaccination.