Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems.

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Organic carbon accumulation in British saltmarshes.

Saltmarshes are a crucial component of the coastal carbon (C) system and provide a natural climate regulation service through the accumulation and long-term storage of organic carbon (OC) in their soils. These coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic disturbance. To manage and protect these ecosystems for C and to allow their inclusion in emissions and natural-capital accounting, as well as carbon markets, accurate and reliable estimates of OC accumulation are required. However, globally, such data are rare or of varying quality. Here, we quantify sedimentation rates and OC densities for 21 saltmarshes in Great Britain (GB). We estimate that, on average, saltmarshes accumulate OC at a rate of 110.88 ± 43.12 g C m-2 yr-1. This is considerably less than widely applied global saltmarsh averages. It is therefore highly likely that the contribution of northern European saltmarshes to global saltmarsh OC accumulation has been significantly overestimated. Taking account of the climatic, geomorphological, oceanographic, and ecological characteristics of all GB saltmarshes and the areal extent of different saltmarsh zones, we estimate that the 451.65 km2 of GB saltmarsh accumulates 46,563 ± 4353 t of OC annually. These low OC accumulation rates underline the importance of the 5.20 ± 0.65 million tonnes of OC already stored in these vulnerable coastal ecosystems. Going forward the protection and preservation of the existing stores of OC in GB saltmarshes must be a priority for the UK as this will provide climate benefits through avoided emissions several times more significant than the annual accumulation of OC in these ecosystems.

Top ten priorities for global saltmarsh restoration, conservation and ecosystem service research.

Coastal saltmarshes provide globally important ecosystem services including 'blue carbon' sequestration, flood protection, pollutant remediation, habitat provision and cultural value. Large portions of marshes have been lost or fragmented as a result of land reclamation, embankment construction, and pollution. Sea level rise threatens marsh survival by blocking landward migration where coastlines have been developed. Research-informed saltmarsh conservation and restoration efforts are helping to prevent further loss, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. Using a mixed methods approach, this paper identifies ten research priorities through an online questionnaire and a residential workshop attended by an international, multi-disciplinary network of 35 saltmarsh experts spanning natural, physical and social sciences across research, policy, and practitioner sectors. Priorities have been grouped under four thematic areas of research: Saltmarsh Area Extent, Change and Restoration Potential (including past, present, global variation), Spatio-social contexts of Ecosystem Service delivery (e.g. influences of environmental context, climate change, and stakeholder groups on service provisioning), Patterns and Processes in saltmarsh functioning (global drivers of saltmarsh ecosystem structure/function) and Management and Policy Needs (how management varies contextually; challenges/opportunities for management). Although not intended to be exhaustive, the challenges, opportunities, and strategies for addressing each research priority examined here, providing a blueprint of the work that needs to be done to protect saltmarshes for future generations.