'Drive the doctor' for endovascular thrombectomy in a rural area: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Patients who present in a primary stroke center (PSC) with ischemic stroke are usually transferred to a comprehensive stroke center (CSC) in case of a large vessel occlusion (LVO) for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) treatment, the so-called 'drip-and-ship' (DS) model. The 'drive-the-doctor' (DD) model modifies the DS model by allowing mobile interventionalists (MIs) to transfer to an upgraded PSC acting as a thrombectomy capable stroke center (TSC), instead of transferring patients to a CSC. Using simulation we estimated time savings and impact on clinical outcome of DD in a rural region. METHODS: Data from EVT patients in northern Netherlands was prospectively collected in the MR CLEAN Registry between July 2014 - November 2017. A Monte Carlo simulation model of DS patients served as baseline model. Scenarios included regional spread of TSCs, pre-hospital patient routing to 'the nearest PSC' or 'nearest TSC', MI's notification after LVO confirmation or earlier prehospital, and MI's transport modalities. Primary outcomes are onset to groin puncture (OTG) and predicted probability of favorable outcome (PPFO) (mRS 0-2). RESULTS: Combining all scenarios OTG would be reduced by 28-58 min and PPFO would be increased by 3.4-7.1%. Best performing and acceptable scenario was a combination of 3 TSCs, prehospital patient routing based on the RACE scale, MI notification after LVO confirmation and MI's transfer by ambulance. OTG would reduce by 48 min and PPFO would increase by 5.9%. CONCLUSIONS: A DD model is a feasible scenario to optimize acute stroke services for EVT eligible patients in rural regions. Key design decisions in implementing the DD model for a specific region are regional spread of TSCs, patient routing strategy, and MI's notification moment and transport modality.

Cost-effectiveness of Direct Transfer to Angiography Suite of Patients With Suspected Large Vessel Occlusion.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) deemed eligible for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) are transferred from the emergency room to the angiography suite to undergo the procedure. Recently, the strategy of direct transfer of patients with suspected LVO to the angiography suite (DTAS) has been shown to improve functional outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the DTAS strategy vs initial transfer of patients with suspected LVO (Rapid Arterial Occlusion Evaluation score >4 and NIH Stroke Scale >10) to the emergency room (ITER). METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the DTAS strategy vs the ITER strategy from a Dutch health care perspective with a 10-year time horizon. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using Dutch thresholds of $59,135 (€50,000) and $94,616 (€80,000) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Uncertainty of input parameters was assessed using 1-way sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The DTAS strategy yielded 0.65 additional QALYs at an additional $16,089, resulting in an ICER of $24,925/QALY compared with the ITER strategy. The ICER varied from $27,169 to $38,325/QALY across different scenarios. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the DTAS strategy had a 91.8% and 97.0% likelihood of being cost-effective at a decision threshold of $59,135/QALY and $94,616/QALY, respectively. DISCUSSION: The cost-effectiveness of the DTAS strategy over ITER is robust for patients with suspected LVO. Together with recently published clinical results, this means that implementation of the DTAS strategy may be considered to improve the workflow and outcome of EVT.

Cost-effectiveness of improvement strategies for reperfusion treatments in acute ischemic stroke: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Reducing delays along the acute stroke pathway significantly improves clinical outcomes for acute ischemic stroke patients eligible for reperfusion treatments. The economic impact of different strategies reducing onset to treatment (OTT) is crucial information for stakeholders in acute stroke management. This systematic review aimed to provide an overview on the cost-effectiveness of several strategies to reduce OTT. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted in EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science until January 2022. Studies were included if they reported 1/ stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis and/or endovascular thrombectomy, 2/ full economic evaluation, and 3/ strategies to reduce OTT. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement was applied to assess the reporting quality. RESULTS: Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria, of which thirteen were based on cost-utility analysis with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year gained as the primary outcome. Studies were performed in twelve countries focusing on four main strategies: educational interventions, organizational models, healthcare delivery infrastructure, and workflow improvements. Sixteen studies showed that the strategies concerning educational interventions, telemedicine between hospitals, mobile stroke units, and workflow improvements, were cost-effective in different settings. The healthcare perspective was predominantly used, and the most common types of models were decision trees, Markov models and simulation models. Overall, fourteen studies were rated as having high reporting quality (79%-94%). CONCLUSIONS: A wide range of strategies aimed at reducing OTT is cost-effective in acute stroke care treatment. Existing pathways and local characteristics need to be taken along in assessing proposed improvements.

Expediting workflow in the acute stroke pathway for endovascular thrombectomy in the northern Netherlands: a simulation model.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to identify barriers for the timely delivery of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) and to investigate the effects of potential workflow improvements in the acute stroke pathway. DESIGN: Hospital data prospectively collected in the MR CLEAN Registry were linked to emergency medical services data for each EVT patient and used to build two Monte Carlo simulation models. The 'mothership (MS) model', reflecting patients who arrived directly at the comprehensive stroke centre (CSC); and the 'drip and ship' (DS) model, reflecting patients who were transferred to the CSC from primary stroke centres (PSCs). SETTING: Northern region of the Netherlands. One CSC provides EVT, and its catchment area includes eight PSCs. PARTICIPANTS: 248 patients who were treated with EVT between July 2014 and November 2017. OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were total delay from stroke onset until groin puncture, functional independence at 90 days (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) and mortality. RESULTS: Barriers identified included fast-track emergency department routing, prealert for transfer to the CSC, reduced handover time between PSC and ambulance, direct transfer from CSC arrival to angiography suite entry, and reducing time to groin puncture. Taken together, all workflow improvements could potentially reduce the time from onset to groin puncture by 59 min for the MS model and 61 min for the DS model. These improvements could thus result in more patients-3.7% MS and 7.4% DS-regaining functional independence after 90 days, in addition to decreasing mortality by 3.0% and 5.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In our region, the proposed workflow improvements might reduce time to treatment by about 1 hour and increase the number of patients regaining functional independence by 6%. Simulation modelling is useful for assessing the potential effects of interventions aimed at reducing time from onset to EVT.

Post-discharge Telemonitoring of Physical Activity, Vital Signs, and Patient-Reported Symptoms in Older Patients Undergoing Cancer Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative home monitoring could potentially detect complications early, but evidence in oncogeriatric surgery is scarce. Therefore, we evaluated whether post-discharge physical activity, vital signs, and patient-reported symptoms are related to post-discharge complications and hospital readmissions in older patients undergoing cancer surgery. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we monitored older patients (≥65 years of age) undergoing cancer surgery, for 2 weeks post-discharge using tablet-based applications and connected devices. Outcome measures were post-discharge complications and readmissions; physical activity and patient-reported symptoms over time; and threshold violations for physical activity (step count <1000 steps/day), vital signs (temperature <36°C or >38°C; blood pressure <100/60 mmHg or >150/100 mmHg; heart rate <50 bpm or >100 bpm; weight -5% or +5% of weight at discharge); and patient-reported symptoms (pain score greater than the previous day; presence of dyspnea, vomiting, dizziness, fever). RESULTS: Of 58 patients (mean age 72 years), 24 developed a post-discharge complication and 13 were readmitted. Measured parameters indicated 392 threshold violations out of 5379 measurements (7.3%) in 40 patients, mostly because of physical inactivity. Patients with readmissions had lower physical activity at discharge and at day 9 after discharge and violated a physical activity threshold more often. Patients with post-discharge complications had a higher median pain score compared with patients without these adverse events. No differences in threshold violations of other parameters were observed between patients with and without post-discharge complications and readmissions. CONCLUSION: Our results show the potential of telemonitoring older patients after cancer surgery but confirm that detecting post-discharge complications is complex and multifactorial.

Remote Home Monitoring of Older Surgical Cancer Patients: Perspective on Study Implementation and Feasibility.

BACKGROUND: Remote home monitoring might fill the perceived surveillance gap after hospital discharge. However, it is unclear whether older oncologic patients will be able to use the required new digital technologies. The study aimed to assess the feasibility of postoperative remote home monitoring for this population. METHODS: This observational cohort study recruited patients aged 65 years or older scheduled for oncologic surgery. The study patients used a mobile application and activity tracker preoperatively until 3 months postoperatively. A subset of the patients used additional devices (thermometer, blood pressure monitor, weight scale) and completed electronic health questionnaires 2 weeks after hospital discharge. Feasibility was assessed by the study completion rate, compliance in using components of the information technology system, acceptability [Net Promotor Score (NPS)] and usability [System Usability Scale (SUS)]. The NPS score varied from - 100 to + 100. An SUS higher than 68 was considered above average. RESULTS: Of 47 participants (mean age, 72 years; range, 65-85 years), 37 completed a follow-up assessment, yielding a completion rate of 79%. Compliance in using the activity tracker (n = 41) occurred a median of 81 days [interquartile range (IQR), 70-90 days] out of 90 post-discharge days. Compliance in measuring vital signs and completing health questionnaires varied from a median of 10.5 days (IQR, 4.5-14.0 days) to 12 days (IQR, 5-14 days) out of 14 days. The NPS was + 29.7%, and the mean SUS was 74.4 ± 19.3. CONCLUSION: Older oncologic patients in the study considered postoperative home monitoring acceptable and usable. Once they consented to participate, the patients were compliant, and the completion rate was high.

Pathway Design for Acute Stroke Care in the Era of Endovascular Thrombectomy: A Critical Overview of Optimization Efforts.

The efficacy of intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke is highly time dependent. Optimal organization of acute stroke care is therefore important to reduce treatment delays but has become more complex after the introduction of EVT as regular treatment for large vessel occlusions. There is no singular optimal organizational model that can be generalized to different geographic regions worldwide. Current dominant organizational models for EVT include the drip-and-ship- and mothership model. Guidelines recommend routing of suspected patients with stroke to the nearest intravenous thrombolysis capable facility; however, the choice of routing to a certain model should depend on regional stroke service organization and individual patient characteristics. In general, design approaches for organizing stroke care are required, in which 2 key strategies could be considered. The first entails the identification of interventions within existing organizational models for optimizing timely delivery of intravenous thrombolysis and/or EVT. This includes adaptive patient routing toward a comprehensive stroke center, which focuses particularly on prehospital triage tools; bringing intravenous thrombolysis or EVT to the location of the patient; and expediting services and processes along the stroke pathway. The second strategy is to develop analytical or simulation model-based approaches enabling the design and evaluation of organizational models before their implementation. Organizational models for acute stroke care need to take regional and patient characteristics into account and can most efficiently be assessed and optimized through the application of model-based approaches.

Perioperative telemonitoring of older adults with cancer: Can we connect them all?

OBJECTIVES: Although the increasing cancer incidence in older patients is widely recognised, older patients remain underrepresented in clinical cancer trials and eHealth studies. The aim of this research is to identify technological and patient-related barriers to inclusion of this population in a clinical eHealth study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study with older patients (≥ 65 years) undergoing cancer-related surgery, who were identified for a perioperative telemonitoring study. Reasons for ineligibility and refusal had been prospectively registered. Characteristics and postoperative outcomes were compared between participants and non-participants. RESULTS: Between May 2018 and March 2020, 151 patients were assessed for eligibility, resulting in 65 participants and 86 non-participants. The main reason for ineligibility was lack of internet access at home (n = 16), while main reasons for refusal were perceived high mental burden (n = 46) and insufficient digital skills (n = 12). Compared with participants, non-participants were significantly older (mean age 75 vs. 73, p = 0.01); more often female (64% vs. 35%, p = 0.00), unmarried (42% vs. 8%, p = 0.01) living alone (38% vs. 19%, p = 0.02); had a higher ASA classification (43% vs. 19%, p = 0.00); often had polypharmacy (67% vs. 43%, p = 0.00); and were more often discharged to skilled nursing facilities (0% vs. 15%, p = 0.00). CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the underrepresentation of older female patients with little support from a partner and higher comorbidity. We should be aware of technological and patient-related barriers to including older adults with cancer, in order to avoid further dividing patients with low and high digital health literacy.

Feasibility of Perioperative eHealth Interventions for Older Surgical Patients: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: EHealth interventions are increasingly being applied in perioperative care but have not been adequately studied for older surgical patients who could potentially benefit from them. Therefore, we evaluated the feasibility of perioperative eHealth interventions for this population. DESIGN: A systematic review of prospective observational and interventional studies was conducted. Three electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL) were searched between January 1999 and July 2019. Study quality was assessed by Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies (MINORS) with and without control group. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Studies of surgical patients with an average age ≥65 years undergoing any perioperative eHealth intervention with active patient participation (with the exception of telerehabilitation following orthopedic surgery) were included. MEASURES: The main outcome measure was feasibility, defined as a patient's perceptions of usability, satisfaction, and/or acceptability of the intervention. Other outcomes included compliance and study completion rate. RESULTS: Screening of 1569 titles and abstracts yielded 7 single-center prospective studies with 223 patients (range n = 9-69 per study, average age 66-74 years) undergoing oncological, cardiovascular, or orthopedic surgery. The median MINORS scores were 13.5 of 16 for 6 studies without control group, and 14 of 24 for 1 study with a control group. Telemonitoring interventions were rated as "easy to use" by 89% to 95% of participants in 3 studies. Patients in 3 studies were satisfied with the eHealth intervention and would recommend it to others. Acceptability (derived from consent rate) ranged from 71% to 89%, compliance from 53% to 86%, and completion of study follow-up from 54% to 95%. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Results of 7 studies involving perioperative eHealth interventions suggest their feasibility and encourage further development of technologies for older surgical patients. Future feasibility studies require clear definitions of appropriate feasibility outcome measures and a comprehensive description of patient characteristics such as functional performance, level of education, and socioeconomic status.

Centralising acute stroke care within clinical practice in the Netherlands: lower bounds of the causal impact.

BACKGROUND: Authors in previous studies demonstrated that centralising acute stroke care is associated with an increased chance of timely Intra-Venous Thrombolysis (IVT) and lower costs compared to care at community hospitals. In this study we estimated the lower bound of the causal impact of centralising IVT on health and cost outcomes within clinical practice in the Northern Netherlands. METHODS: We used observational data from 267 and 780 patients in a centralised and decentralised system, respectively. The original dataset was linked to the hospital information systems. Literature on healthcare costs and Quality of Life (QoL) values up to 3 months post-stroke was searched to complete the input. We used Synthetic Control Methods (SCM) to counter selection bias. Differences in SCM outcomes included 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). To deal with unobserved heterogeneity we focused on recently developed methods to obtain the lower bounds of the causal impact. RESULTS: Using SCM to assess centralising acute stroke 3 months post-stroke revealed healthcare savings of $US 1735 (CI, 505 to 2966) while gaining 0.03 (CI, - 0.01 to 0.73) QoL per patient. The corresponding lower bounds of the causal impact are $US 1581 and 0.01. The dominant effect remained stable in the deterministic sensitivity analyses with $US 1360 (CI, 476 to 2244) as the most conservative estimate. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we showed that a centralised system for acute stroke care appeared both cost-saving and yielded better health outcomes. The results are highly relevant for policy makers, as this is the first study to address the issues of selection and unobserved heterogeneity in the evaluation of centralising acute stroke care, hence presenting causal estimates for budget decisions.

Optimising acute stroke care organisation: a simulation study to assess the potential to increase intravenous thrombolysis rates and patient gains.

OBJECTIVES: To assess potential increases in intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) rates given particular interventions in the stroke care pathway. DESIGN: Simulation modelling was used to compare the performance of the current pathway, best practices based on literature review and an optimised model. SETTING: Four hospitals located in the North of the Netherlands, as part of a centralised organisational model. PARTICIPANTS: Ischaemic stroke patients prospectively ascertained from February to August 2010. INTERVENTION: The interventions investigated included efforts aimed at patient response and mode of referral, prehospital triage and intrahospital delays. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was thrombolysis utilisation. Secondary measures were onset-treatment time (OTT) and the proportion of patients with excellent functional outcome (modified Rankin scale (mRS) 0-1) at 90 days. RESULTS: Of 280 patients with ischaemic stroke, 125 (44.6%) arrived at the hospital within 4.5 hours, and 61 (21.8%) received IVT. The largest improvements in IVT treatment rates, OTT and the proportion of patients with mRS scores of 0-1 can be expected when patient response is limited to 15 min (IVT rate +5.8%; OTT -6 min; excellent mRS scores +0.2%), door-to-needle time to 20 min (IVT rate +4.8%; OTT -28 min; excellent mRS scores+3.2%) and 911 calls are increased to 60% (IVT rate +2.9%; OTT -2 min; excellent mRS scores+0.2%). The combined implementation of all potential best practices could increase IVT rates by 19.7% and reduce OTT by 56 min. CONCLUSIONS: Improving IVT rates to well above 30% appears possible if all known best practices are implemented.

Rationale and design for studying organisation of care for intra-arterial thrombectomy in the Netherlands: simulation modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction of intra-arterial thrombectomy (IAT) challenges acute stroke care organisations to provide fast access to acute stroke therapies. Parameters of pathway performance include distances to primary and comprehensive stroke centres (CSCs), time to treatment and availability of ambulance services. Further expansion of IAT centres may increase treatment rates yet could affect efficient use of resources and quality of care due to lower treatment volume. The aim was to study the organisation of care and patient logistics of IAT for patients with ischaemic stroke in the Netherlands. METHODS AND ANALYSES: Using a simulation modelling approach, we will quantify performance of 16 primary and CSCs offering IAT in the Netherlands. Patient data concerning both prehospital and intrahospital pathway logistics will be collected and used as input for model validation. A previously validated simulation model for intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) patients will be expanded with data of the MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands) Registry and trials performed in the Collaboration for New Treatments in Acute Stroke consortium to represent patient logistics, time delays and outcomes in IAT patients. Simulation experiments aim to assess effectiveness and efficiency of alternative network topologies, that is, IAT with or without IVT at the nearest primary stroke centre (PSC) versus centralised care at a CSC. Primary outcomes are IAT treatment rates and clinical outcome according to the modified Rankin Scale. Secondary outcomes include onset-to-treatment time and resource use. Mann-Whitney U and Fisher's exact tests will be used to estimate differences for continuous and categorical variables. Model and parameter uncertainty will be tested using sensitivity analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This will be the first study to examine the organisation of acute stroke care for IAT delivery on a national scale using discrete event simulation. There are no ethics or safety concerns regarding the dissemination of information, which includes publication in peer-reviewed journals and (inter)national conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN99503308, ISRCTN76741621, ISRCTN19922220, ISRCTN80619088, NCT03608423; Pre-results.

Personalized Prehospital Triage in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Direct transportation to a center with facilities for endovascular treatment might be beneficial for patients with acute ischemic stroke, but it can also cause harm by delay of intravenous treatment. Our aim was to determine the optimal prehospital transportation strategy for individual patients and to assess which factors influence this decision. Methods- We constructed a decision tree model to compare outcome of ischemic stroke patients after transportation to a primary stroke center versus a more distant intervention center. The optimal strategy was estimated based on individual patient characteristics, geographic location, and workflow times. In the base case scenario, the primary stroke center was located at 20 minutes and the intervention center at 45 minutes. Additional sensitivity analyses included an urban scenario (10 versus 20 minutes) and a rural scenario (30 versus 90 minutes). Results- Direct transportation to the intervention center led to better outcomes in the base case scenario when the likelihood of a large vessel occlusion as a cause of the ischemic stroke was >33%. With a high likelihood of large vessel occlusion (66%, comparable with a Rapid Arterial Occlusion Evaluation score of 5 or above), the benefit of direct transportation to the intervention center was 0.10 quality-adjusted life years (=36 days in full health). In the urban scenario, direct transportation to an intervention center was beneficial when the risk of large vessel occlusion was 24% or higher. In the rural scenario, this threshold was 49%. Other factors influencing the decision included door-to-needle times, door-to-groin times, and the door-in-door-out time. Conclusions- The preferred prehospital transportation strategy for suspected stroke patients depends mainly on the likelihood of large vessel occlusion, driving times, and in-hospital workflow times. We constructed a robust model that combines these characteristics and can be used to personalize prehospital triage, especially in more remote areas.

Centralising and optimising decentralised stroke care systems: a simulation study on short-term costs and effects.

BACKGROUND: Centralisation of thrombolysis may offer substantial benefits. The aim of this study was to assess short term costs and effects of centralisation of thrombolysis and optimised care in a decentralised system. METHODS: Using simulation modelling, three scenarios to improve decentralised settings in the North of Netherlands were compared from the perspective of the policy maker and compared to current decentralised care: (1) improving stroke care at nine separate hospitals, (2) centralising and improving thrombolysis treatment to four, and (3) two hospitals. Outcomes were annual mean and incremental costs per patient up to the treatment with thrombolysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (iCER) per 1% increase in thrombolysis rate, and the proportion treated with thrombolysis. RESULTS: Compared to current decentralised care, improving stroke care at individual community hospitals led to mean annual costs per patient of $US 1,834 (95% CI, 1,823-1,843) whereas centralising to four and two hospitals led to $US 1,462 (95% CI, 1,451-1,473) and $US 1,317 (95% CI, 1,306-1,328), respectively (P < 0.001). The iCER of improving community hospitals was $US 113 (95% CI, 91-150) and $US 71 (95% CI, 59-94), $US 56 (95% CI, 44-74) when centralising to four and two hospitals, respectively. Thrombolysis rates decreased from 22.4 to 21.8% and 21.2% (P = 0.120 and P = 0.001) in case of increasing centralisation. CONCLUSIONS: Centralising thrombolysis substantially lowers mean annual costs per patient compared to raising stroke care at community hospitals simultaneously. Small, but negative effects on thrombolysis rates may be expected.

The Partners in Health scale for older adults: design and examination of its psychometric properties in a Dutch population of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Self-management is an important asset in helping older adults remain independent and in control for as long as possible. There is no reliable and valid measurement instrument to evaluate self-management behaviour of older adults. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to design a measurement instrument, that is the Partners in Health scale for older adults (PIH-OA), to assess self-management knowledge and behaviour of community-living older adults and to examine its psychometric properties in a Dutch context. METHODS/DESIGN: The original PIH scale was translated into Dutch and adapted to the context of community-living older adults, resulting in the PIH-OA. Data for 1127 participants (mean age 81.7, SD=4.5) from the Embrace study were used to assess the psychometric properties. RESULTS: Data fitted a three-factor model, covering the constructs Knowledge, Management and Coping, with good internal consistencies (Cronbach's alphas ranging from .77 to .84). Known groups validity was confirmed: no differences were found between gender, age and marital status groups, and differences were found between the education level and health status groups. Discriminant validity was confirmed by weak correlations between PIH-OA scales and scales evaluating "Perceived integrated care" and "Activities of daily living (ADL)" (r<.30), and a moderate correlation between the PIH-OA subscale "Coping" and the scale evaluating "ADL" (r=.41). CONCLUSION: The PIH-OA appears to be a reliable and valid measurement instrument for assessing the self-management knowledge and behaviour of older adults. This could help professionals provide tailored support to improve the well-being and independence of older adults.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. SETTINGS: The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). PARTICIPANTS: Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. RESULTS: There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation.

Prehospital factors determining regional variation in thrombolytic therapy in acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Treatment rates with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator vary by region, which can be partially explained by organizational models of stroke care. A recent study demonstrated that prehospital factors determine a higher thrombolysis rate in a centralized vs. decentralized model in the north of the Netherlands. AIM: To investigate prehospital factors that may explain variation in thrombolytic therapy between a centralized and a decentralized model. METHODS: A consecutive case observational study was conducted in the north of the Netherlands comparing patients arriving within 4·5 h in a centralized vs. decentralized stroke care model. Factors investigated were transportation mode, prehospital diagnostic accuracy, and preferential referral of thrombolysis candidates. Potential confounders were adjusted using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 172 and 299 arriving within 4·5 h were enrolled in centralized and decentralized settings, respectively. The rate of transportation by emergency medical services was greater in the centralized model (adjusted odds ratio 3·11; 95% confidence interval, 1·59-6·06). Also, more misdiagnoses of stroke occurred in the central model (P = 0·05). In postal code areas with and without potential preferential referral of thrombolysis candidates due to overlapping catchment areas, the odds of hospital arrival within 4·5 h in the central vs. decentral model were 2·15 (95% confidence interval, 1·39-3·32) and 1·44 (95% confidence interval, 1·04-2·00), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the larger proportion of patients arriving within 4·5 h in the centralized model might be related to a lower threshold to use emergency services to transport stroke patients and partly to preferential referral of thrombolysis candidates.