Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken.

Dietary Meat, Trimethylamine N-Oxide-Related Metabolites, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Among Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Effects of animal source foods (ASF) on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and underlying mechanisms remain controversial. We investigated prospective associations of different ASF with incident ASCVD and potential mediation by gut microbiota-generated trimethylamine N-oxide, its L-carnitine-derived intermediates γ-butyrobetaine and crotonobetaine, and traditional ASCVD risk pathways. METHODS: Among 3931 participants from a community-based US cohort aged 65+ years, ASF intakes and trimethylamine N-oxide-related metabolites were measured serially over time. Incident ASCVD (myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, other atherosclerotic death) was adjudicated over 12.5 years median follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures and covariates examined ASF-ASCVD associations; and additive hazard models, mediation proportions by different risk pathways. RESULTS: After multivariable-adjustment, higher intakes of unprocessed red meat, total meat, and total ASF associated with higher ASCVD risk, with hazard ratios (95% CI) per interquintile range of 1.15 (1.01-1.30), 1.22 (1.07-1.39), and 1.18 (1.03-1.34), respectively. Trimethylamine N-oxide-related metabolites together significantly mediated these associations, with mediation proportions (95% CI) of 10.6% (1.0-114.5), 7.8% (1.0-32.7), and 9.2% (2.2-44.5), respectively. Processed meat intake associated with a nonsignificant trend toward higher ASCVD (1.11 [0.98-1.25]); intakes of fish, poultry, and eggs were not significantly associated. Among other risk pathways, blood glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein, but not blood pressure or blood cholesterol, each significantly mediated the total meat-ASCVD association. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, community-based cohort, higher meat intake associated with incident ASCVD, partly mediated by microbiota-derived metabolites of L-carnitine, abundant in red meat. These novel findings support biochemical links between dietary meat, gut microbiome pathways, and ASCVD.

Trans Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Pooled Analysis of 12 Prospective Cohort Studies in the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE).

OBJECTIVE: Trans fatty acids (TFAs) have harmful biologic effects that could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of TFA biomarkers and T2D by conducting an individual participant-level pooled analysis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included data from an international consortium of 12 prospective cohorts and nested case-control studies from six nations. TFA biomarkers were measured in blood collected between 1990 and 2008 from 25,126 participants aged ≥18 years without prevalent diabetes. Each cohort conducted de novo harmonized analyses using a prespecified protocol, and findings were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by prespecified between-study and within-study characteristics. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 2,843 cases of incident T2D were identified. In multivariable-adjusted pooled analyses, no significant associations with T2D were identified for trans/trans-18:2, relative risk (RR) 1.09 (95% CI 0.94-1.25); cis/trans-18:2, 0.89 (0.73-1.07); and trans/cis-18:2, 0.87 (0.73-1.03). Trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated with T2D (RR 0.81 [95% CI 0.67-0.99], 0.86 [0.75-0.99], and 0.84 [0.74-0.96], respectively). Findings were not significantly different according to prespecified sources of potential heterogeneity (each P ≥ 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating individual trans-18:2 TFA biomarkers were not associated with risk of T2D, while trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated. Findings may reflect the influence of mixed TFA sources (industrial vs. natural ruminant), a general decline in TFA exposure due to policy changes during this period, or the relatively limited range of TFA levels.

Longitudinal Plasma Measures of Trimethylamine N-Oxide and Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events in Community-Based Older Adults.

Background Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a gut microbiota-dependent metabolite of dietary choline, L-carnitine, and phosphatidylcholine-rich foods. On the basis of experimental studies and patients with prevalent disease, elevated plasma TMAO may increase risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). TMAO is also renally cleared and may interact with and causally contribute to renal dysfunction. Yet, how serial TMAO levels relate to incident and recurrent ASCVD in community-based populations and the potential mediating or modifying role of renal function are not established. Methods and Results We investigated associations of serial measures of plasma TMAO, assessed at baseline and 7 years, with incident and recurrent ASCVD in a community-based cohort of 4131 (incident) and 1449 (recurrent) older US adults. TMAO was measured using stable isotope dilution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (laboratory coefficient of variation, <6%). Incident ASCVD (myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, sudden cardiac death, or other atherosclerotic death) was centrally adjudicated using medical records. Risk was assessed by multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, including time-varying demographics, lifestyle factors, medical history, laboratory measures, and dietary habits. Potential mediating effects and interaction by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were assessed. During prospective follow-up, 1766 incident and 897 recurrent ASCVD events occurred. After multivariable adjustment, higher levels of TMAO were associated with a higher risk of incident ASCVD, with extreme quintile hazard ratio (HR) compared with the lowest quintile=1.21 (95% CI, 1.02-1.42; P-trend=0.029). This relationship appeared mediated or confounded by eGFR (eGFR-adjusted HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.90-1.27), as well as modified by eGFR (P-interaction <0.001). High levels of TMAO were associated with higher incidence of ASCVD in the presence of impaired renal function (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2: HR, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.13-2.14]; P-trend=0.007), but not normal or mildly reduced renal function (eGFR ≥60 mL/min per 1.73 m2: HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.85-1.25]; P-trend=0.668). Among individuals with prior ASCVD, TMAO associated with higher risk of recurrent ASCVD (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.01-1.56]; P-trend=0.009), without significant modification by eGFR. Conclusions In this large community-based cohort of older US adults, serial measures of TMAO were associated with higher risk of incident ASCVD, with apparent modification by presence of impaired renal function and with higher risk of recurrent ASCVD.

Assessment of Plasma Phospholipid Very-Long-Chain Saturated Fatty Acid Levels and Healthy Aging.

Importance: Identifying novel factors that protect against age-related diseases and promote healthy aging is critical to public health. Higher levels of circulating very-long-chain saturated fatty acids (VLSFAs) are integrated biomarkers of diet and metabolism shown to have beneficial associations in cardiovascular disease and total mortality, but whether they are associated with overall healthy aging is unknown. Objective: To examine the association of circulating levels of 3 VLSFAs with unhealthy aging events, including incident chronic disease (cardiovascular disease, cancer, lung disease or severe kidney disease), physical dysfunction, and cognitive decline. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used 1992 to 2014 data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). The CHS is a multicenter, population-based study of cardiovascular disease among older adults. Among the 4559 CHS participants with available fatty acid data, 1879 participants who had an age-related event before their first measurement were excluded. Data analysis was performed in 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Plasma phospholipid VLSFA levels were measured by thin-layer chromatography followed by gas chromatography. The main outcome was the hazard ratio (HR) of an incident unhealthy aging event associated with serial measures of plasma arachidic acid, behenic acid, and lignoceric acid. Results: Among the 2680 study participants (976 men [36.4%]), the mean (SD) age was 74.7 (4.8) years old at entry. During a median (interquartile range) of 6.4 (2.9-12.9) years of follow-up, 2484 participants experienced an unhealthy event. Compared with the lowest quintile, levels of behenic acid in the highest quintile of the fatty acid distribution were associated with 15% lower risk of an unhealthy event (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.74-0.97; P for trend = .01) after adjustment for demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and clinical conditions. In analogous comparisons, levels of lignoceric acid were similarly associated with 16% lower risk of an unhealthy event (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73-0.95; P for trend = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that higher levels of circulating behenic acid and lignoceric acid are associated with lower risk of unhealthy aging events. These results highlight the need to explore determinants of circulating VLSFAs for potential novel efforts to promote healthy aging.

Serial Biomarkers of De Novo Lipogenesis Fatty Acids and Incident Heart Failure in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

Background De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is an endogenous pathway that converts excess dietary starch, sugar, protein, and alcohol into specific fatty acids (FAs). Although elevated DNL is linked to several metabolic abnormalities, little is known about how long-term habitual levels and changes in levels of FAs in the DNL pathway relate to incident heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We investigated whether habitual levels and changes in serial measures of FAs in the DNL pathway were associated with incident HF among 4249 participants free of HF at baseline. Plasma phospholipid FAs were measured at baseline, 6 years, and 13 years using gas chromatography, and risk factors for HF were measured using standardized methods. Incident HF was centrally adjudicated using medical records. We prospectively evaluated associations with HF risk of (1) habitual FA levels, using cumulative updating to assess long-term exposure, and (2) changes in FA levels over time. During 22.1 years of follow-up, 1304 HF cases occurred. After multivariable adjustment, habitual levels and changes in levels of palmitic acid (16:0) were positively associated with incident HF (interquintile hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.17 [1.00-1.36] and 1.26 [1.03-1.55], respectively). Changes in levels of 7-hexadecenoic acid (16:1n-9) and vaccenic acid (18:1n-7) were each positively associated with risk of HF (1.36 [1.13-1.62], and 1.43 [1.18-1.72], respectively). Habitual levels and changes in levels of myristic acid (14:0), palmitoleic acid (16:1n-7), stearic acid (18:0), and oleic acid (18:1n-9) were not associated with incident HF. Conclusions Both habitual levels and changes in levels of 16:0 were positively associated with incident HF in older adults. Changes in 16:1n-9 and 18:1n-7 were also positively associated with incident HF. These findings support a potential role of DNL or these DNL-related FAs in the development of HF.

Serial Plasma Phospholipid Fatty Acids in the De Novo Lipogenesis Pathway and Total Mortality, Cause-Specific Mortality, and Cardiovascular Diseases in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

Background Synthesized fatty acids (FAs) from de novo lipogenesis may affect cardiometabolic health, but longitudinal associations between serially measured de novo lipogenesis-related fatty acid biomarkers and mortality or cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not well established. Methods and Results We investigated longitudinal associations between de novo lipogenesis-related fatty acids with all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and incident CVD among 3869 older US adults, mean (SD) age 75 (5) years and free of prevalent CVD at baseline. Levels of plasma phospholipid palmitic (16:0), palmitoleic (16:1n-7), stearic (18:0), oleic acid (18:1n-9), and other risk factors were serially measured at baseline, 6 years, and 13 years. All-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and incident fatal and nonfatal CVD were centrally adjudicated. Risk was assessed in multivariable-adjusted Cox models with time-varying FAs and covariates. During 13 years, median follow-up (maximum 22.4 years), participants experienced 3227 deaths (1131 CVD, 2096 non-CVD) and 1753 incident CVD events. After multivariable adjustment, higher cumulative levels of 16:0, 16:1n-7, and 18:1n-9 were associated with higher all-cause mortality, with extreme-quintile hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 1.35 (1.17-1.56), 1.40 (1.21-1.62), and 1.56 (1.35-1.80), respectively, whereas higher levels of 18:0 were associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio=0.76; 95% CI=0.66-0.88). Associations were generally similar for CVD mortality versus non-CVD mortality, as well as total incident CVD. Changes in levels of 16:0 were positively, and 18:0 inversely, associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio=1.23, 95% CI=1.08-1.41; and hazard ratio=0.78, 95% CI=0.68-0.90). Conclusions Higher long-term levels of 16:0, 16:1n-7, and 18:1n-9 and changes in 16:0 were positively, whereas long-term levels and changes in 18:0 were inversely, associated with all-cause mortality in older adults.