Assessment of Evaporative Demand Drought Index for drought analysis in Peninsular Malaysia.

An effective drought monitoring tool is essential for the development of timely drought early warning system. This study evaluates Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as a drought indicator in measuring spatiotemporal evolution of droughts over Peninsular Malaysia during 1989-2018. The modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were performed to detect the presence of monotonic trends in EDDI, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and their related climate variables. The performance of EDDI in capturing the drought onset, evolutions and demise of historical severe droughts was also compared with SPI and SPEI at multiple timescales. EDDI demonstrates strong spatiotemporal correlations with SPI and SPEI and comparable performance in historical drought events identification. At sub-monthly timescale, 2-week EDDI displays equivalent drought severities and durations for all historical severe droughts corresponding to the monthly EDDI. In the case when rainfall deficits are normalized in an otherwise warm and dry month, EDDI may serve as a great alternative to SPI and SPEI due to it being sensitive to the changes in prevalent atmospheric conditions. Collectively, the results fill in the knowledge gaps on drought evolutions from the evaporative perspective and highlight the efficacy of EDDI as a valuable drought early warning tool for Peninsular Malaysia. Future study should explore the physical mechanisms behind the development of flash drought and the role of evaporation in the drought propagation processes.

Impact Comparison of El Niño and Ageing Crops on Malaysian Oil Palm Yield.

Ageing oil palm crops show a significant correlation with the declining oil palm yield in Malaysia. Not only do aged crops result in lower production, but they are also more costly and difficult to harvest. The Malaysian oil palm yield recovered to the pre-El Niño level after the 1997/98 El Niño event. However, the oil palm yield failed to recover after the recent 2015/16 El Niño. Due to the accumulation of aged oil palm plantations in Malaysia, the financial losses from different magnitudes of El Niño events are increasing. Thirty-four years of monthly oil palm yield trends in Malaysia were compared with the El Niño-free yield dataset to show that the oil palm yield downtrend pattern is the same with or without El Niño events in Malaysia for the most recent 15 years (2005 to 2019). The performance of oil palm yield did not show any significant difference from 2000 to 2019. This study estimates that ageing oil palms would lead to a minimum opportunity loss of USD 431 million by December 2022. Without a proper replanting program, the total combined loss attributable to the ageing crops from 2009 to 2022 is estimated to be USD 3.94 billion, which is more profound than losses due to El Niño events within the same period. This study also concluded that a continuous 7-year replanting scheme of at least 115,000 hectares per year is needed to address the adverse impact of ageing crops on the Malaysian oil palm yield, which accounts for nearly 30% of the global palm oil production.

Water quality assessment and pollution threat to safe water supply for three river basins in Malaysia.

Pollution in raw water poses increasing threats to safe water supply in many developing countries. Therefore, a comprehensive water quality assessment is essential to provide various stakeholders the information to deal with this problem. This study applies chemometrics to interpret a recent 10-year water quality data from three major river basins (Selangor River basin, Langat River basin, and Klang River basin) frequented by water supply disruptions in Selangor, Malaysia. We present the application of selected chemometrics approaches, namely agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis, principal component analysis, factor analysis and Man-Kendall trend analysis. The results showed three spatial groups of monitoring stations with similar land use practices and pollution characteristics. Besides spatial differences, periodic variations were observed when similar pollutants exhibited different pollution loads during rainy and dry periods. We found that nitrogen species, total suspended solids, and dissolved solids represented the major pollution loads in the studied basins. The results further confirmed a significant increasing trend in ammonia pollution. Our study demonstrates how ammonia pollutant is likely to pose a threat to water supply and highlights the vulnerability of Selangor's water resource system to water pollution. The results of this study could facilitate decision making towards more holistic strategies, specifically, incorporating ammonia treatment facilities into the conventional water treatment plant will help achieve smooth water supply operations.

Landfill leachate wastewater treatment to facilitate resource recovery by a coagulation-flocculation process via hydrogen bond.

Recent trend to recover value-added products from wastewater calls for more effective pre-treatment technology. Conventional landfill leachate treatment is often complex and thus causes negative environmental impacts and financial burden. In order to facilitate downstream processing of leachate wastewater for production of energy or value-added products, it is pertinent to maximize leachate treatment performance by using simple yet effective technology that removes pollutants with minimum chemical added into the wastewater that could potentially affect downstream processing. Hence, the optimization of coagulation-flocculation leachate treatment using multivariate approach is crucial. Central composite design was applied to optimize operating parameters viz. Alum dosage, pH and mixing speed. Quadratic model indicated that the optimum COD removal of 54% is achieved with low alum dosage, pH and mixing speed of 750 mgL-1, 8.5 and 100 rpm, respectively. Optimization result showed that natural pH of the mature landfill leachate sample is optimum for alum coagulation process. Hence, the cost of pH adjustment could be reduced for industrial application by adopting optimized parameters. The inherent mechanism of pollutant removal was elucidated by FTIR peaks at 3853 cm-1 which indicated that hydrogen bonds play a major role in leachate removal by forming well aggregated flocs. This is concordance with SEM image that the floc was well aggregated with the porous linkages and amorphous surface structure. The optimization of leachate treatment has been achieved by minimizing the usage of alum under optimized condition.

Optimised neural network model for river-nitrogen prediction utilizing a new training approach.

In the past few decades, there has been a rapid growth in the concentration of nitrogenous compounds such as nitrate-nitrogen and ammonia-nitrogen in rivers, primarily due to increasing agricultural and industrial activities. These nitrogenous compounds are mainly responsible for eutrophication when present in river water, and for 'blue baby syndrome' when present in drinking water. High concentrations of these compounds in rivers may eventually lead to the closure of treatment plants. This study presents a training and a selection approach to develop an optimum artificial neural network model for predicting monthly average nitrate-N and monthly average ammonia-N. Several studies have predicted these compounds, but most of the proposed procedures do not involve testing various model architectures in order to achieve the optimum predicting model. Additionally, none of the models have been trained for hydrological conditions such as the case of Malaysia. This study presents models trained on the hydrological data from 1981 to 2017 for the Langat River in Selangor, Malaysia. The model architectures used for training are General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Multilayer Neural Network and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN). These models were trained for various combinations of internal parameters, input variables and model architectures. Post-training, the optimum performing model was selected based on the regression and error values and plot of predicted versus observed values. Optimum models provide promising results with a minimum overall regression value of 0.92.

Sustainable landfill leachate treatment: Optimize use of guar gum as natural coagulant and floc characterization.

Sustainable wastewater treatment necessitates the application of natural and green material in the approach. Thus, selecting a natural coagulant in leachate treatment is a crucial step in landfill operation to prevent secondary environmental pollution due to residual inorganic coagulant in treated effluent. Current study investigated the application of guar gum in landfill leachate treatment. Central composite design in response surface methodology was used to optimize the performance of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) removal. Quadratic model developed indicated the optimum COD removal 22.57% at guar gum dosage of 44.39 mg/L, pH 8.56 (natural pH of leachate) and mixing speed 79.27 rpm. Scanning electron microscopy showed that floc was compact and energy-dispersive-x-ray analysis showed that guar gum was capable to adsorb multiple ions from the leachate. Structural characterization using Fourier Transform Infrared analysis demonstrated that hydrogen bonding between guar and pollutant particles was involved in coagulation and flocculation process. Therefore, guar gum coagulant present potential to be an alternative in leachate treatment where pH requirement is not required during treatment. Simultaneously, adsorption by guar gum offers added pollutant removal advantage.

Input attributes optimization using the feasibility of genetic nature inspired algorithm: Application of river flow forecasting.

In nature, streamflow pattern is characterized with high non-linearity and non-stationarity. Developing an accurate forecasting model for a streamflow is highly essential for several applications in the field of water resources engineering. One of the main contributors for the modeling reliability is the optimization of the input variables to achieve an accurate forecasting model. The main step of modeling is the selection of the proper input combinations. Hence, developing an algorithm that can determine the optimal input combinations is crucial. This study introduces the Genetic algorithm (GA) for better input combination selection. Radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is used for monthly streamflow time series forecasting due to its simplicity and effectiveness of integration with the selection algorithm. In this paper, the RBFNN was integrated with the Genetic algorithm (GA) for streamflow forecasting. The RBFNN-GA was applied to forecast streamflow at the High Aswan Dam on the Nile River. The results showed that the proposed model provided high accuracy. The GA algorithm can successfully determine effective input parameters in streamflow time series forecasting.

Artificial Neural Network Approach for Modelling of Mercury Ions Removal from Water Using Functionalized CNTs with Deep Eutectic Solvent.

Multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) functionalized with a deep eutectic solvent (DES) were utilized to remove mercury ions from water. An artificial neural network (ANN) technique was used for modelling the functionalized CNTs adsorption capacity. The amount of adsorbent dosage, contact time, mercury ions concentration and pH were varied, and the effect of parameters on the functionalized CNT adsorption capacity is observed. The (NARX) network, (FFNN) network and layer recurrent (LR) neural network were used. The model performance was compared using different indicators, including the root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R2) and relative error (RE). Three kinetic models were applied to the experimental and predicted data; the pseudo second-order model was the best at describing the data. The maximum RE, R2 and MSE were 9.79%, 0.9701 and 1.15 × 10-3, respectively, for the NARX model; 15.02%, 0.9304 and 2.2 × 10-3 for the LR model; and 16.4%, 0.9313 and 2.27 × 10-3 for the FFNN model. The NARX model accurately predicted the adsorption capacity with better performance than the FFNN and LR models.

An improved model based on the support vector machine and cuckoo algorithm for simulating reference evapotranspiration.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in irrigated agriculture. The objective of this study is to simulate monthly ET0 at a meteorological station in India using a new method, an improved support vector machine (SVM) based on the cuckoo algorithm (CA), which is known as SVM-CA. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours were selected as inputs for the models used in the simulation. The results of the simulation using SVM-CA were compared with those from experimental models, genetic programming (GP), model tree (M5T) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results demonstrate that the proposed SVM-CA model is able to simulate ET0 more accurately than the GP, M5T and ANFIS models. Two major indicators, namely, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), indicated that the SVM-CA outperformed the other methods with respective reductions of 5-15% and 5-17% compared with the GP model, 12-21% and 10-22% compared with the M5T model, and 7-15% and 5-18% compared with the ANFIS model, respectively. Therefore, the proposed SVM-CA model has high potential for accurate simulation of monthly ET0 values compared with the other models.

Integrated support vector regression and an improved particle swarm optimization-based model for solar radiation prediction.

Solar energy is a major type of renewable energy, and its estimation is important for decision-makers. This study introduces a new prediction model for solar radiation based on support vector regression (SVR) and the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm. The new version of algorithm attempts to enhance the global search ability for the PSO. In practice, the SVR method has a few parameters that should be determined through a trial-and-error procedure while developing the prediction model. This procedure usually leads to non-optimal choices for these parameters and, hence, poor prediction accuracy. Therefore, there is a need to integrate the SVR model with an optimization algorithm to achieve optimal choices for these parameters. Thus, the IPSO algorithm, as an optimizer is integrated with SVR to obtain optimal values for the SVR parameters. To examine the proposed model, two solar radiation stations, Adana, Antakya and Konya, in Turkey, are considered for this study. In addition, different models have been tested for this prediction, namely, the M5 tree model (M5T), genetic programming (GP), SVR integrated with four different optimization algorithms SVR-PSO, SVR-IPSO, Genetic Algorithm (SVR-GA), FireFly Algorithm (SVR-FFA) and the multivariate adaptive regression (MARS) model. The sensitivity analysis is performed to achieve the highest accuracy level of the prediction by choosing different input parameters. Several performance measuring indices have been considered to examine the efficiency of all the prediction methods. The results show that SVR-IPSO outperformed M5T and MARS.

The state-of-the-art system dynamics application in integrated water resources modeling.

In recent years, water resources management has become more complicated and controversial due to the impacts of various factors affecting hydrological systems. System Dynamics (SD) has in turn become increasingly popular due to its advantages as a tool for dealing with such complex systems. However, SD also has some limitations. This review contains a comprehensive survey of the existing literature on SD as a potential method to deal with the complexity of system integrated modeling, with a particular focus on the application of SD to the integrated modeling of water resources systems. It discusses the limitations of SD in these contexts, and highlights a number of studies which have applied a combination of SD and other methods to overcome these limitations. Finally, our study makes a number of recommendations for future modifications in the application of SD methods in order to enhance their performance.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method.

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system.

Two Monthly Continuous Dynamic Model Based on Nash Bargaining Theory for Conflict Resolution in Reservoir System.

So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i) having a discrete nature; and (ii) working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance) of the state variable (water level in the reservoir) is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in water allocation in situations of water scarcity properly. Also, comparing the annual dynamic game models, the presented models result in superior results in practice. Furthermore, unlike discrete dynamic game models, the presented models can significantly reduce the runtime thereby avoiding dimensionality problems.