High-resolution mapping of age- and gender-specific risk of Clonorchis sinensis infection risk in Guangdong, China: a geostatistical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The latest national survey on the distribution of human parasites in China demonstrated that Guangdong was among the endemic provinces with the highest Clonorchis sinensis infection rates. High-resolution, age- and gender-specific risk maps of the temporal and spatial distributions are essential for the targeted control work. METHODS: Disease data on the prevalence of C. sinensis infection from 1990 onwards, either age- and gender-specific or aggregated across age and gender, were collected through systematic review and four large-scale surveys in Guangdong Province. Environmental and socioeconomic variables were obtained from open-access databases and employed as potential predictors. A Bayesian geostatistical model was developed to estimate the C. sinensis infection risk at high spatial resolution. RESULTS: The final dataset included 606 surveys at 463 unique locations for C. sinensis infection. Our findings suggested that following an initial increase and stabilization, the overall population-adjusted prevalence had declined to 2.2% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 1.7-3.0%) in the period of 2015 onwards. From 2015 onwards, moderate and high infection risks were found in the northern regions (e.g. Heyuan and Shaoguan cities) and the southern Pearl River Delta (e.g. Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Jiangmen cities), respectively. Age- and gender-specific risk maps revealed that males had a higher infection risk than females, and the infection risk was higher in adults compared to children. CONCLUSIONS: Our high-resolution risk maps of C. sinensis infection in Guangdong Province identified the spatial, temporal, age and gender heterogeneities, which can provide useful information assisting tailored control strategies.

Spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth in China, 1990-2020: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term trends of preterm birth rates in China and their geographic variation by province. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth rates in China by province from 1990 to 2020. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, WANFANG and VIP from January 1990 to September 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that provided data on preterm births in China after 1990 were included. Data were extracted following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. SYNTHESIS: We assessed the quality of each survey using a 9-point checklist. We estimated the annual preterm birth risk by province using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models considering potential socioeconomic, environmental, and sanitary predictors. RESULTS: Based on 634 survey data from 343 included studies, we found a gradual increase in the preterm birth risk in most provinces in China since 1990, with an average annual increase of 0.7% nationally. However, the preterm birth rates in Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Fujian Province showed a decline, while those in Sichuan were quite stable since 1990. In 2020, the estimates of preterm birth rates ranged from 2.9% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2.1, 3.8) in Inner Mongolia to 8.5% (95% BCI 6.6, 10.9) in Jiangxi, with the national estimate of 5.9% (95% BCI 4.3, 8.1). Specifically, some provinces were identified as high-risk provinces for either consistently high preterm birth rates (e.g. Jiangxi) or relatively large increases (e.g. Shanxi) since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides annual information on the preterm birth risk in China since 1990 and identifies high-risk provinces to assist in targeted control and intervention for this health issue.

The spatial-temporal risk profiling of Clonorchis sinensis infection over 50 years implies the effectiveness of control programs in South Korea: a geostatistical modeling study.

Background: Over the past 50 years, two national control programs on Clonorchis sinensis infection have been conducted in South Korea. Spatial-temporal profiles of infection risk provide useful information on assessing the effectiveness of the programs and planning spatial-targeted control strategies. Methods: Advanced Bayesian geostatistical joint models with spatial-temporal random effects were developed to analyze disease data collecting by a systematic review with potential influencing factors, and to handle issues of preferential sampling and data heterogeneities. Changes of the infection risk were analyzed. Findings: We presented the first spatial-temporal risk maps of C. sinensis infection at 5 × 5 km2 resolution from 1970 to 2020 in South Korea. Moderate-to-high risk areas were shrunk, but temporal variances were shown in different areas. The population-adjusted estimated prevalence across the country was 5.99% (95% BCI: 5.09-7.01%) in 1970, when the first national deworming campaign began. It declined to 3.95% (95% BCI: 2.88-3.95%) in 1995, when the campaign suspended, and increased to 4.73% (95% BCI: 4.00-5.42%) in 2004, just before the Clonorchiasis Eradication Program (CEP). The population-adjusted prevalence was estimated at 2.77% (95% BCI: 1.67-4.34%) in 2020, 15 years after CEP started, corresponding to 1.42 (95% BCI: 0.85-2.23) million infected people. Interpretation: The first nationwide campaign and the CEP showed effectiveness on control of C. sinensis infection. Moderate-to-high risk areas identified by risk maps should be prioritized for control and intervention. Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (project no. 82073665) and the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (project no. 2022A1515010042).

The spatial-temporal distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Guangdong Province, China: A geostatistical analysis of data derived from the three national parasitic surveys.

BACKGROUND: The results of the latest national survey on important human parasitic diseases in 2015-2016 showed Guangdong Province is still a moderately endemic area, with the weighted prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) higher than the national average. High-resolution age- and gender-specific spatial-temporal risk maps can support the prevention and control of STHs, but not yet available in Guangdong. METHODOLOGY: Georeferenced age- and gender-specific disease data of STH infections in Guangdong Province was derived from three national surveys on important human parasitic diseases, conducted in 1988-1992, 2002-2003, and 2015-2016, respectively. Potential influencing factors (e.g., environmental and socioeconomic factors) were collected from open-access databases. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to analyze the above data, based on which, high-resolution maps depicting the STH infection risk were produced in the three survey years in Guangdong Province. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: There were 120, 31, 71 survey locations in the first, second, and third national survey in Guangdong, respectively. The overall population-weighted prevalence of STH infections decreased significantly over time, from 68.66% (95% Bayesian credible interval, BCI: 64.51-73.06%) in 1988-1992 to 0.97% (95% BCI: 0.69-1.49%) in 2015-2016. In 2015-2016, only low to moderate infection risk were found across Guangdong, with hookworm becoming the dominant species. Areas with relatively higher risk (>5%) were mostly distributed in the western region. Females had higher infection risk of STHs than males. The infection risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura were higher in children, while middle-aged and elderly people had higher infection risk of hookworm. Precipitation, elevation, land cover, and human influence index (HII) were significantly related with STH infection risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We produced the high-resolution, age- and gender-specific risk maps of STH infections in the three national survey periods across nearly 30 years in Guangdong Province, which can provide important information assisting the control and prevention strategies.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of different control strategies for Clonorchis sinensis infection in a high endemic area of China: A modelling study.

Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne parasitic disease caused by Clonorchis sinensis infection. The evaluation of long-term cost-effectiveness of control strategies is important for disease control and prevention. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the three recommended strategies (i.e., WHO, Chinese and Guangdong strategies) and different combinations of commonly used measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental improvement) on clonorchiasis. The study area, Fusha town in Guangdong Province, was a typical high endemic area in China. The analysis was based on a multi-group transmission model of C. sinensis infection. We set the intervention duration for 10 years and post-intervention period for 50 years. The corresponding costs and DALYs were estimated. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) less than 1/5 of the willingness-to-pay threshold were identified as highly cost-effective strategies. The optimal control strategy was obtained using the next best comparator method. The ICERs of Guangdong strategy were $172 (95% CI: $143-$230) US for praziquantel and $106 (95% CI: $85-$143) US for albendazole, suggesting the highest cost-effectiveness among the three recommended strategies. For praziquantel, 470 sets of control strategies were identified as highly cost-effective strategies for achieving infection control (prevalence<5%). The optimal strategy consisted of chemotherapy targeted on at-risk population, IEC and environmental improvement, with coverages all being 100%, and with the ICER of $202 (95% CI: $168-$271) US. The results for transmission control (prevalence<1%) and albendazole were obtained with the same procedures. The findings may help to develop control policies for C. sinensis infection in high endemic areas. Moreover, the method adopted is applicable for assessment of optimal strategies in other endemic areas.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

Equity of geographical access to public health facilities in Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: Geographical accessibility is important against health equity, particularly for less developed countries as Nepal. It is important to identify the disparities in geographical accessibility to the three levels of public health facilities across Nepal, which has not been available. METHODS: Based on the up-to-date dataset of Nepal formal public health facilities in 2021, we measured the geographical accessibility by calculating the travel time to the nearest public health facility of three levels (ie, primary, secondary and tertiary) across Nepal at 1×1 km2 resolution under two travel modes: walking and motorised. Gini and Theil L index were used to assess the inequality. Potential locations of new facilities were identified for best improvement of geographical efficiency or equality. RESULTS: Both geographical accessibility and its equality were better under the motorised mode compared with the walking mode. If motorised transportation is available to everyone, the population coverage within 5 min to any public health facilities would be improved by 62.13%. The population-weighted average travel time was 17.91 min, 39.88 min and 69.23 min and the Gini coefficients 0.03, 0.18 and 0.42 to the nearest primary, secondary and tertiary facilities, respectively, under motorised mode. For primary facilities, low accessibility was found in the northern mountain belt; for secondary facilities, the accessibility decreased with increased distance from the district centres; and for tertiary facilities, low accessibility was found in most areas except the developed areas like zonal centres. The potential locations of new facilities differed for the three levels of facilities. Besides, the majority of inequalities of geographical accessibility were from within-province. CONCLUSION: The high-resolution geographical accessibility maps and the assessment of inequality provide valuable information for health resource allocation and health-related planning in Nepal.

Model-based spatial-temporal mapping of opisthorchiasis in endemic countries of Southeast Asia.

Opisthorchiasis is an overlooked danger to Southeast Asia. High-resolution disease risk maps are critical but have not been available for Southeast Asia. Georeferenced disease data and potential influencing factor data were collected through a systematic review of literatures and open-access databases, respectively. Bayesian spatial-temporal joint models were developed to analyze both point- and area-level disease data, within a logit regression in combination of potential influencing factors and spatial-temporal random effects. The model-based risk mapping identified areas of low, moderate, and high prevalence across the study region. Even though the overall population-adjusted estimated prevalence presented a trend down, a total of 12.39 million (95% Bayesian credible intervals [BCI]: 10.10-15.06) people were estimated to be infected with O. viverrini in 2018 in four major endemic countries (i.e., Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam), highlighting the public health importance of the disease in the study region. The high-resolution risk maps provide valuable information for spatial targeting of opisthorchiasis control interventions.

Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model.

Clonorchiasis is one of the most important food-borne trematodiases affecting millions of people. Strategies were recommended by different organizations and control programmes were implemented but mostly in short-time periods. It's important to assess the long-term benefits and sustainability of possible control strategies on morbidity control of the disease. We developed a multi-group transmission model to describe the dynamics of C. sinensis transmission among different groups of people with different raw-fish-consumption behaviors, based on which, a full model with interventions was proposed and three common control measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental modification) and their possible combinations were considered. Under a typical setting of C. sinensis transmission, we simulated interventions according to different strategies and with a series of values of intervention parameters. We found that combinations of measures were much beneficial than those singly applied; higher coverages of measures had better effects; and strategies targeted on whole population performed better than that on at-risk population with raw-fish-consumption behaviors. The strategy recommended by the government of Guangdong Province, China shows good and sustainable effects, under which, the infection control (with human prevalence <5%) could be achieved within 7.84 years (95% CI: 5.78-12.16 years) in our study setting (with original observed prevalence 33.67%). Several sustainable strategies were provided, which could lead to infection control within 10 years. This study makes the effort to quantitatively assess the long-term effects of possible control strategies against C. sinensis infection under a typical transmission setting, with application of a multi-group dynamic transmission model. The proposed model is easily facilitated with other transmission settings and the simulation outputs provide useful information to support the decision-making of control strategies on clonorchiasis.

Risk profiling of soil-transmitted helminth infection and estimated number of infected people in South Asia: A systematic review and Bayesian geostatistical Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In South Asia, hundreds of millions of people are infected with soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, and Trichuris trichiura). However, high-resolution risk profiles and the estimated number of people infected have yet to be determined. In turn, such information will assist control programs to identify priority areas for allocation of scarce resource for the control of soil-transmitted helminth infection. METHODOLOGY: We pursued a systematic review to identify prevalence surveys pertaining to soil-transmitted helminth infections in four mainland countries (i.e., Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan) of South Asia. PubMed and ISI Web of Science were searched from inception to April 25, 2019, without restriction of language, study design, and survey date. We utilized Bayesian geostatistical models to identify environmental and socioeconomic predictors, and to estimate infection risk at high spatial resolution across the study region. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 536, 490, and 410 georeferenced surveys were identified for A. lumbricoides, hookworm, and T. trichiura, respectively. We estimate that 361 million people (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 331-395 million), approximately one-quarter of the South Asia population, was infected with at least one soil-transmitted helminth species in 2015. A. lumbricoides was the predominant species. Moderate to high prevalence (>20%) of any soil-transmitted helminth infection was predicted in the northeastern part and some northern areas of the study region, as well as the southern coastal areas of India. The annual treatment needs for the school-age population requiring preventive chemotherapy was estimated at 165 million doses (95% BCI: 146-185 million). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our risk maps provide an overview of the geographic distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infection in four mainland countries of South Asia and highlight the need for up-to-date surveys to accurately evaluate the disease burden in the region.

Geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to improved drinking water supply and sanitation in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Per United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, Nepal is aspiring to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water and provide access to adequate and equitable sanitation for all by 2030. For these goals to be accomplished, it is important to understand the country's geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to its drinking-water supply and sanitation (WSS) so that resource allocation and disease control can be optimized. We aimed 1) to estimate spatial heterogeneity of access to improved WSS among the overall Nepalese population at a high resolution; 2) to explore inequality within and between relevant Nepalese administrative levels; and 3) to identify the specific administrative areas in greatest need of policy attention. METHODS: We extracted cluster-sample data on the use of the water supply and sanitation that included 10,826 surveyed households from the 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, then used a Gaussian kernel density estimation with adaptive bandwidths to estimate the distribution of access to improved WSS conditions over a grid at 1 × 1 km. The Gini coefficient was calculated for the measurement of inequality in the distribution of improved WSS; the Theil L measure and Theil T index were applied to account for the decomposition of inequality. RESULTS: 57% of Nepalese had access to improved sanitation (range: 18.1% in Mahottari to 100% in Kathmandu) and 92% to drinking-water (range: 41.7% in Doti to 100% in Bara). The most unequal districts in Gini coefficient among improved sanitation were Saptari, Sindhuli, Banke, Bajura and Achham (range: 0.276 to 0.316); and Sankhuwasabha, Arghakhanchi, Gulmi, Bhojpur, Kathmandu (range: 0.110 to 0.137) among improved drinking-water. Both the Theil L and Theil T showed that within-province inequality was substantially greater than between-province inequality; while within-district inequality was less than between-district inequality. The inequality of several districts was higher than what is calculated by regression of the Gini coefficient and our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed considerable geographical heterogeneity and inequality not evidenced in previous national statistics. Our findings may be useful in prioritizing resources to reduce inequality and expand the coverage of improved water supply and sanitation in Nepal.

Risk mapping of clonorchiasis in the People's Republic of China: A systematic review and Bayesian geostatistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Clonorchiasis, one of the most important food-borne trematodiases, affects more than 12 million people in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China). Spatially explicit risk estimates of Clonorchis sinensis infection are needed in order to target control interventions. METHODOLOGY: Georeferenced survey data pertaining to infection prevalence of C. sinensis in P.R. China from 2000 onwards were obtained via a systematic review in PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Internet, and Wanfang Data from January 1, 2000 until January 10, 2016, with no restriction of language or study design. Additional disease data were provided by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention in Shanghai. Environmental and socioeconomic proxies were extracted from remote-sensing and other data sources. Bayesian variable selection was carried out to identify the most important predictors of C. sinensis risk. Geostatistical models were applied to quantify the association between infection risk and the predictors of the disease, and to predict the risk of infection across P.R. China at high spatial resolution (over a grid with grid cell size of 5×5 km). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained clonorchiasis survey data at 633 unique locations in P.R. China. We observed that the risk of C. sinensis infection increased over time, particularly from 2005 onwards. We estimate that around 14.8 million (95% Bayesian credible interval 13.8-15.8 million) people in P.R. China were infected with C. sinensis in 2010. Highly endemic areas (≥ 20%) were concentrated in southern and northeastern parts of the country. The provinces with the highest risk of infection and the largest number of infected people were Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide spatially relevant information for guiding clonorchiasis control interventions in P.R. China. The trend toward higher risk of C. sinensis infection in the recent past urges the Chinese government to pay more attention to the public health importance of clonorchiasis and to target interventions to high-risk areas.

Assessment of global guidelines for preventive chemotherapy against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis: a cost-effectiveness modelling study.

BACKGROUND: WHO guidelines recommend annual treatment for schistosomiasis or soil-transmitted helminthiasis when prevalence in school-aged children is at or above a threshold of 50% and 20%, respectively. Separate treatment guidelines are used for these two helminthiases, and integrated community-wide treatment is not recommended. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of changing prevalence thresholds and treatment guidelines under an integrated delivery framework. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, age-structured transmission and cost-effectiveness model that simulates integrated preventive chemotherapy programmes against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We assessed a 5-year treatment programme with praziquantel (40 mg/kg per treatment) against schistosomiasis and albendazole (400 mg per treatment) against soil-transmitted helminthiasis at 75% coverage. We defined strategies as highly cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than the World Bank classification for a low-income country (gross domestic product of US$1045 per capita). We calculated the prevalence thresholds for cost-effective preventive chemotherapy of various strategies, and estimated treatment needs for sub-Saharan Africa. FINDINGS: Annual preventive chemotherapy against schistosomiasis was highly cost-effective in treatment of school-aged children at a prevalence threshold of 5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·7-5·2; current guidelines recommend treatment at 50% prevalence) and for community-wide treatment at a prevalence of 15% (7·3-18·5; current recommendation is unclear, some community treatment recommended at 50% prevalence). Annual preventive chemotherapy against soil-transmitted helminthiasis was highly cost-effective in treatment of school-aged children at a prevalence of 20% (95% UI 5·4-30·5; current guidelines recommend treatment at 20% prevalence) and the entire community at 60% (35·3-85·1; no guidelines available). When both helminthiases were co-endemic, prevalence thresholds using integrated delivery were lower. Using this revised treatment framework, we estimated that treatment needs would be six times higher than WHO guidelines for praziquantel and two times higher for albendazole. An additional 21·3% (95% Bayesian credible interval 20·4-22·2) of the population changed from receiving non-integrated treatment under WHO guidelines to integrated treatment (both praziquantel and albendazole). Country-specific economic differences resulted in heterogeneity around these prevalence thresholds. INTERPRETATION: Annual preventive chemotherapy programmes against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis are likely to be highly cost-effective at prevalences lower than WHO recommendations. These findings support substantial treatment scale-up, community-wide coverage, integrated treatment in co-endemic settings that yield substantial cost synergies, and country-specific treatment guidelines. FUNDING: Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, Mount Sinai Hospital-University Health Network AMO Innovation Fund, and Stanford University Medical Scholars Programme.

The spatial distribution of Schistosoma mansoni infection in four regions of western Côte d'Ivoire.

Schistosomiasis poses a considerable public health burden in sub- Saharan Africa and a sound understanding of the spatial distribution facilitates to better target control interventions. The objectives of this study were i) to assess the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni among school-aged children in four regions of western Côte d'Ivoire; ii) to determine demographic, climatic and environmental factors that influence the distribution of S. mansoni; and iii) to map and predict the distribution of S. mansoni in non-sampled locations. Parasitological surveys were carried out in 264 schools from June to December 2011. In each school, we aimed to examine 50 children for S. mansoni infection using duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears. Schools were georeferenced using a hand-held global positioning system receiver. Demographic data were obtained from readily available school lists, while climatic and environmental data were extracted from open-access remote sensing databases. Multivariable, binary non-spatial models and a Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression model were used to identify demographic, climatic and environmental risk factors for S. mansoni infection. Risk maps were developed based on observed S. mansoni prevalences and using Bayesian geostatistical models to predict prevalences at non-sampled locations. Overall, 12,462 children provided a sufficiently large stool sample to perform at least one Kato-Katz thick smear. The observed overall prevalence of S. mansoni infection was 39.9%, ranging from 0 to 100% at the unit of the school. Bayesian geostatistical analysis revealed that age, sex, altitude and difference between land surface temperature at day and night were significantly associated with S. mansoni infection. The S. mansoni risk map presented here is being been used by the national schistosomiasis control programme for spatial targeting of praziquantel and other interventions.

Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and treatment needs in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and geostatistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis affects more than 200 million individuals, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, but empirical estimates of the disease burden in this region are unavailable. We used geostatistical modelling to produce high-resolution risk estimates of infection with Schistosoma spp and of the number of doses of praziquantel treatment needed to prevent morbidity at different administrative levels in 44 countries. METHODS: We did a systematic review to identify surveys including schistosomiasis prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa via PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and African Journals Online, from inception to May 2, 2014, with no restriction of language, survey date, or study design. We used Bayesian geostatistical meta-analysis and rigorous variable selection to predict infection risk over a grid of 1 155 818 pixels at 5 × 5 km, on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic predictors and to calculate the number of doses of praziquantel needed for prevention of morbidity. FINDINGS: The literature search identified Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni surveys done in, respectively, 9318 and 9140 unique locations. Infection risk decreased from 2000 onwards, yet estimates suggest that 163 million (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI] 155 million to 172 million; 18·5%, 17·6-19·5) of the sub-Saharan African population was infected in 2012. Mozambique had the highest prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children (52·8%, 95% CrI 48·7-57·8). Low-risk countries (prevalence among school-aged children lower than 10%) included Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, and Rwanda. The numbers of doses of praziquantel needed per year were estimated to be 123 million (95% CrI 121 million to 125 million) for school-aged children and 247 million (239 million to 256 million) for the entire population. INTERPRETATION: Our results will inform policy makers about the number of treatments needed at different levels and will guide the spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions. FUNDING: European Research Council, China Scholarship Council, UBS Optimus Foundation, and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Bayesian geostatistical modelling of soil-transmitted helminth survey data in the People's Republic of China.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth infections affect tens of millions of individuals in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China). There is a need for high-resolution estimates of at-risk areas and number of people infected to enhance spatial targeting of control interventions. However, such information is not yet available for P.R. China. METHODS: A geo-referenced database compiling surveys pertaining to soil-transmitted helminthiasis, carried out from 2000 onwards in P.R. China, was established. Bayesian geostatistical models relating the observed survey data with potential climatic, environmental and socioeconomic predictors were developed and used to predict at-risk areas at high spatial resolution. Predictors were extracted from remote sensing and other readily accessible open-source databases. Advanced Bayesian variable selection methods were employed to develop a parsimonious model. RESULTS: Our results indicate that the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections in P.R. China considerably decreased from 2005 onwards. Yet, some 144 million people were estimated to be infected in 2010. High prevalence (>20%) of the roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides infection was predicted for large areas of Guizhou province, the southern part of Hubei and Sichuan provinces, while the northern part and the south-eastern coastal-line areas of P.R. China had low prevalence (<5%). High infection prevalence (>20%) with hookworm was found in Hainan, the eastern part of Sichuan and the southern part of Yunnan provinces. High infection prevalence (>20%) with the whipworm Trichuris trichiura was found in a few small areas of south P.R. China. Very low prevalence (<0.1%) of hookworm and whipworm infections were predicted for the northern parts of P.R. China. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first model-based estimates for soil-transmitted helminth infections throughout P.R. China at high spatial resolution. Our prediction maps provide useful information for the spatial targeting of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control interventions and for long-term monitoring and surveillance in the frame of enhanced efforts to control and eliminate the public health burden of these parasitic worm infections.

Ultrastructural uncoupling between T-tubules and sarcoplasmic reticulum in human heart failure.

AIMS: Chronic heart failure is a complex clinical syndrome with impaired myocardial contractility. In failing cardiomyocytes, decreased signalling efficiency between the L-type Ca(2+) channels (LCCs) in the plasma membrane (including transverse tubules, TTs) and the ryanodine receptors (RyRs) in the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) underlies the defective excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling. It is therefore intriguing to know how the LCC-RyR signalling apparatus is remodelled in human heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Stereological analysis of transmission electron microscopic images showed that the volume densities and the surface areas of TTs and junctional SRs were both decreased in heart failure specimens of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and ischaemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). The TT-SR junctions were reduced by ~60%, with the remaining displaced from the Z-line areas. Moreover, the spatial span of individual TT-SR junctions was reduced by ~17% in both DCM and ICM tissues. In accordance with these remodelling, junctophilin-2 (JP2), a structural protein anchoring SRs to TTs, was down-regulated, and miR-24, a microRNA that suppresses JP2 expression, was up-regulated in both heart failure tissues. CONCLUSION: Human heart failure of distinct causes shared similar physical uncoupling between TTs and SRs, which appeared attributable to the reduced expression of JP2 and increased expression of miR-24. Therapeutic strategy against JP2 down-regulation would be expected to protect patients from cardiac E-C uncoupling.

Ultrastructural remodelling of Ca(2+) signalling apparatus in failing heart cells.

AIMS: The contraction of a heart cell is controlled by Ca(2+)-induced Ca(2+) release between L-type Ca(2+) channels (LCCs) in the cell membrane/T-tubules (TTs) and ryanodine receptors (RyRs) in the junctional sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR). During heart failure, LCC-RyR signalling becomes defective. The purpose of the present study was to reveal the ultrastructural mechanism underlying the defective LCC-RyR signalling and contractility. METHODS AND RESULTS: In rat models of heart failure produced by transverse aortic constriction surgery, stereological analysis of transmission electron microscopic images showed that the volume density and the surface area of junctional SRs and those of SR-coupled TTs were both decreased in failing heart cells. The TT-SR junctions were displaced or missing from the Z-line areas. Moreover, the spatial span of individual TT-SR junctions was markedly reduced in failing heart cells. Numerical simulation and junctophilin-2 knockdown experiments demonstrated that the decrease in junction size (and thereby the constitutive LCC and RyR numbers) led to a scattered delay of Ca(2+) release activation. CONCLUSIONS: The shrinking and eventual absence of TT-SR junctions are important mechanisms underlying the desynchronized and inhomogeneous Ca(2+) release and the decreased contractile strength in heart failure. Maintaining the nanoscopic integrity of TT-SR junctions thus represents a therapeutic strategy against heart failure and related cardiomyopathies.