Predictors of mortality in hospital survivors with type 2 diabetes mellitus and acute coronary syndromes.

AIM: To define the predictors of long-term mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 7226 patients from a randomized trial, testing the effect on cardiovascular outcomes of the dual peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonist aleglitazar in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome (AleCardio trial), were analysed. Median follow-up was 2 years. The independent mortality predictors were defined using Cox regression analysis. The predictive information provided by each variable was calculated as percent of total chi-square of the model. All-cause mortality was 4.0%, with cardiovascular death contributing for 73% of mortality. The mortality prediction model included N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.68; 95% confidence interval = 1.51-1.88; 27% of prediction), lack of coronary revascularization (hazard ratio = 2.28; 95% confidence interval = 1.77-2.93; 18% of prediction), age (hazard ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05; 15% of prediction), heart rate (hazard ratio = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.03; 10% of prediction), glycated haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.11; 95% confidence interval = 1.03-1.19; 8% of prediction), haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.02; 8% of prediction), prior coronary artery bypass (hazard ratio = 1.61; 95% confidence interval = 1.11-2.32; 7% of prediction) and prior myocardial infarction (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87; 6% of prediction). CONCLUSION: In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome, mortality prediction is largely dominated by markers of cardiac, rather than metabolic, dysfunction.

Effects of Direct Renin Blockade on Renal & Systemic Hemodynamics and on RAAS Activity, in Weight Excess and Hypertension: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

AIM: The combination of weight excess and hypertension significantly contributes to cardiovascular risk and progressive kidney damage. An unfavorable renal hemodynamic profile is thought to contribute to this increased risk and may be ameliorated by direct renin inhibition (DRI). The aim of this trial was to assess the effect of DRI on renal and systemic hemodynamics and on RAAS activity, in men with weight excess and hypertension. METHODS: A randomized, double-blind, cross-over clinical trial to determine the effect of DRI (aliskiren 300 mg/day), with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibition (ACEi; ramipril 10 mg/day) as a positive control, on renal and systemic hemodynamics, and on RAAS activity (n = 15). RESULTS: Mean (SEM) Glomerular filtration rate (101 (5) mL/min/1.73m2) remained unaffected by DRI or ACEi. Effective renal plasma flow (ERPF; 301 (14) mL/min/1.73m2) was increased in response to DRI (320 (14) mL/min/1.73m2, P = 0.012) and ACEi (317 (15) mL/min/1.73m2, P = 0.045). Filtration fraction (FF; 34 (0.8)%) was reduced by DRI only (32 (0.7)%, P = 0.044). Mean arterial pressure (109 (2) mmHg) was reduced by DRI (101 (2) mmHg, P = 0.008) and ACEi (103 (3) mmHg, P = 0.037). RAAS activity was reduced by DRI and ACEi. Albuminuria (20 [9-42] mg/d) was reduced by DRI only (12 [5-28] mg/d, P = 0.030). CONCLUSIONS: In men with weight excess and hypertension, DRI and ACEi improved renal and systemic hemodynamics. Both DRI and ACEi reduced RAAS activity. Thus, DRI provides effective treatment in weight excess and hypertension. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch trial register, registration number: 2532 www.trialregister.nl.

Early renin-angiotensin system intervention is more beneficial than late intervention in delaying end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To develop and validate a model to simulate progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) from early onset until end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and to assess the effect of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) intervention in early, intermediate and advanced stages of DKD. METHODS: We used data from the BENEDICT, IRMA-2, RENAAL and IDNT trials that assessed effects of RAS intervention in patients with type 2 diabetes. We built a model with discrete disease stages based on albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Using survival analyses, we assessed the effect of RAS intervention on delaying ESRD in early [eGFR>60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) <30 mg/g], intermediate (eGFR 30-60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) or ACR 30-300 mg/g) and advanced (eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) or ACR >300 mg/g) stages of DKD for patients in different age groups. RESULTS: For patients at early, intermediate and advanced stage of disease, whose mean age was 60 years and who received placebo, the median time to ESRD was 21.4, 10.8 and 4.7 years, respectively. RAS intervention delayed the predicted time to ESRD by 4.2, 3.6 and 1.4 years, respectively. The benefit of early RAS intervention was more pronounced in younger patients; for example, for patients with a mean age of 45 years, RAS intervention at early, intermediate or advanced stage delayed ESRD by 5.9, 4.0 and 1.1 years versus placebo. CONCLUSIONS: RAS intervention early in the course of proteinuric DKD is more beneficial than late intervention in delaying ESRD.

Predictors of response in initial users of metformin and sulphonylurea derivatives: a systematic review.

AIM: To provide an overview of factors predicting metformin and sulphonylurea treatment response. BACKGROUND: A large variability between individuals in treatment response to metformin and sulphonylurea derivatives exists. Understanding which factors determine response to these drugs may pave the way for more individualized therapy. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in the MEDLINE, Cochrane and EMBASE databases, between 2003 and 2012 for articles assessing demographic and clinical prediction factors of treatment response in initial users of metformin or sulphonylurea. A literature search of articles referenced within the studies identified was also performed. Treatment response was defined as change in HbA1c level, reaching target HbA1c levels or time to treatment change. Studies were assessed on quality, sample size and type of analysis. Results were summarized by tabulating positive, null and negative associations observed for included predictors. RESULTS: A total of 10 articles (six trial reports and four cohort studies) were obtained, including three of sufficient quality. For metformin, baseline HbA1c , older age, lower BMI and shorter disease duration were found to be predictors of better treatment response in at least three studies of sufficient quality. For sulphonylurea derivatives, baseline HbA1c and shorter duration were identified as predictors of better treatment response in at least two studies of sufficient quality. Race, smoking status, lipid levels, blood pressure, kidney function and comorbidities were not significantly associated with treatment response. CONCLUSIONS: Several demographic and clinical factors were identified as possible predictors of response to metformin and sulphonylurea, but the number of studies with sufficient quality was small. Generally, early treatment seems important for achieving better glycaemic outcomes.

Modeling and simulation for medical product development and evaluation: highlights from the FDA-C-Path-ISOP 2013 workshop.

Medical-product development has become increasingly challenging and resource-intensive. In 2004, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) described critical challenges facing medical-product development by establishing the critical path initiative [1]. Priorities identified included the need for improved modeling and simulation tools, further emphasized in FDA's 2011 Strategic Plan for Regulatory Science [Appendix]. In an effort to support and advance model-informed medical-product development (MIMPD), the Critical Path Institute (C-Path) [www.c-path.org], FDA, and International Society of Pharmacometrics [www.go-isop.org] co-sponsored a workshop in Washington, D.C. on September 26, 2013, to examine integrated approaches to developing and applying model- MIMPD. The workshop brought together an international group of scientists from industry, academia, FDA, and the European Medicines Agency to discuss MIMPD strategies and their applications. A commentary on the proceedings of that workshop is presented here.

Urine and plasma metabolites predict the development of diabetic nephropathy in individuals with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: Early detection of individuals with Type 2 diabetes mellitus or hypertension at risk for micro- or macroalbuminuria may facilitate prevention and treatment of renal disease. We aimed to discover plasma and urine metabolites that predict the development of micro- or macroalbuminuria. METHODS: Patients with Type 2 diabetes (n = 90) and hypertension (n = 150) were selected from the community-cohort 'Prevention of REnal and Vascular End-stage Disease' (PREVEND) and the Steno Diabetes Center for this case-control study. Cases transitioned in albuminuria stage (from normo- to microalbuminuria or micro- to macroalbuminuria). Controls, matched for age, gender, and baseline albuminuria stage, remained in normo- or microalbuminuria stage during follow-up. Median follow-up was 2.9 years. Metabolomics were performed on plasma and urine. The predictive performance of a metabolite for albuminuria transition was assessed by the integrated discrimination index. RESULTS: In patients with Type 2 diabetes with normoalbuminuria, no metabolites discriminated cases from controls. In patients with Type 2 diabetes with microalbuminuria, plasma histidine was lower (fold change = 0.87, P = 0.02) and butenoylcarnitine was higher (fold change = 1.17, P = 0.007) in cases vs. controls. In urine, hexose, glutamine and tyrosine were lower in cases vs. controls (fold change = 0.20, P < 0.001; 0.32, P < 0.001; 0.51, P = 0.006, respectively). Adding the metabolites to a model of baseline albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate metabolites improved risk prediction for macroalbuminuria transition (plasma integrated discrimination index = 0.28, P < 0.001; urine integrated discrimination index = 0.43, P < 0.001). These metabolites did not differ between hypertensive cases and controls without Type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Type 2 diabetes-specific plasma and urine metabolites were discovered that predict the development of macroalbuminuria beyond established renal risk markers. These results should be confirmed in a large, prospective cohort.

The importance of short-term off-target effects in estimating the long-term renal and cardiovascular protection of angiotensin receptor blockers.

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have multiple effects that may contribute to their efficacy on renal/cardiovascular outcomes. We developed and validated a risk score that incorporated short-term changes in multiple risk markers to predict the ARB effect on renal/cardiovascular outcomes. The score was used to predict renal/cardiovascular risk at baseline and at month 6 in the ARB treatment arm of the Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM (noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) trial. The net risk difference at these time points indicated the estimated long-term renal/cardiovascular treatment effect. Predicted relative risk reductions (RRRs) based on multiple markers were close to observed RRRs for renal (RRR(predicted): 30.1% vs. RRR(observed): 21.8%; P = 0.44) and cardiovascular outcomes (RRR(predicted): 9.4% vs. RRR(observed): 9.2%; P = 0.98), in addition to being markedly more accurate than predicted RRRs based on changes in single markers. The score was validated in an independent ARB trial. Predictions of long-term renal/cardiovascular ARB effects are more accurate when considering short-term changes in multiple risk markers, challenging the use of single markers to establish drug efficacy.

Inhibition of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system for cerebrorenal protection.

Blood pressure is a strong risk factor for ischemic and atherosclerotic events such as stroke. Blood pressure is often elevated in patients with chronic kidney disease. Consequently, chronic kidney disease patients are at high risk of developing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular damage. Blood pressure reduction by means of inhibiting the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) reduces the risk of stroke. There is evidence available in the primary and secondary prevention of stroke that RAAS blockade exerts cerebrovascular protective effects independent of blood pressure lowering. This chapter discusses the role of RAAS blockade for the prevention and treatment of stroke in chronic kidney disease. The role of dual RAAS blockade will be reviewed and alternative strategies to enhance the effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers will be provided.

Dapagliflozin a glucose-regulating drug with diuretic properties in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) reabsorbs glucose and sodium in the renal proximal tubule. Dapagliflozin, an SGLT2 inhibitor, targets hyperglycaemia in type 2 diabetes by increasing renal glucose excretion. To investigate whether the parallel occurring sodium loss would have diuretic-like physiologic effects, we compared dapagliflozin and hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) effects on 24-h blood pressure (BP), body weight, plasma volume and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). METHODS: In this randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial, 75 subjects with type 2 diabetes were assigned placebo, dapagliflozin 10 mg/day, or HCTZ 25 mg/day. Changes from baseline BP, body weight, plasma volume and GFR were assessed after 12 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: Subjects' mean age was 56 years, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) duration 6.3 years, and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 7.5%. Treatment with placebo, dapagliflozin or HCTZ resulted in changes from baseline in 24-h ambulatory mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) of -0.9 (95%CI -4.2, +2.4), -3.3 (95%CI -6.8, +0.2), and -6.6 (95%CI -9.9, -3.2) mmHg, respectively at week 12, adjusted for baseline SBP. Body weight decreased with dapagliflozin and HCTZ. In a sub-study plasma volume appeared to decrease with dapagliflozin but did not change with placebo or HCTZ treatment. Dapagliflozin induced a greater reduction in GFR (-10.8%; 95%CI -14.6, -6.7) relative to placebo (-2.9%; 95% CI -6.9, +1.2) or HCTZ (-3.4%; 95%CI -7.3, +0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin-induced SGLT2 inhibition for 12 weeks is associated with reductions in 24-h BP, body weight, GFR and possibly plasma volume. Cumulatively, these effects suggest that dapagliflozin may have a diuretic-like capacity to lower BP in addition to beneficial effects on glycaemic control.

A urinary peptide biomarker set predicts worsening of albuminuria in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Microalbuminuria is considered the first clinical sign of kidney dysfunction and is associated with a poor renal and cardiovascular prognosis in type 2 diabetes. Detection of patients who are prone to develop micro- or macroalbuminuria may represent an effective strategy to start or optimise therapeutic intervention. Here we assessed the value of a urinary proteomic-based risk score (classifier) in predicting the development and progression of microalbuminuria. METHODS: We conducted a prospective case-control study. Cases (n = 44) and controls (n = 44) were selected from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) study and from the Steno Diabetes Center (Gentofte, Denmark). Cases were defined by transition from normo- to microalbuminuria or from micro- to macroalbuminuria over a follow-up of 3 years. Controls with no transitions in albuminuria were pair-matched for age, sex and albuminuria status. A model for the progression of albuminuria was built using a proteomic classifier based on 273 urinary peptides. RESULTS: The proteomic classifier was independently associated with transition to micro- or macroalbuminuria (OR 1.35 [95% CI 1.02, 1.79], p = 0.035). The classifier predicted the development and progression of albuminuria on top of albuminuria and estimated GFR (eGFR, area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve increase of 0.03, p = 0.002; integrated discrimination index [IDI]: 0.105, p = 0.002). Fragments of collagen and α-2-HS-glycoprotein showed significantly different expression between cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Although limited by the relatively small sample size, these results suggest that analysis of a urinary biomarker set enables early renal risk assessment in patients with diabetes. Further work is required to confirm the role of urinary proteomics in the prevention of renal failure in diabetes.

Validity of biomarkers predicting onset or progression of nephropathy in patients with Type 2 diabetes: a systematic review.

Novel biomarkers predicting onset or progression of nephropathy in patients with Type 2 diabetes have been recently identified. We performed a systematic review to assess the validity of biomarkers predicting onset or progression of nephropathy in patients with Type 2 diabetes in longitudinal studies. The methodological quality of the studies was scored using Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) criteria and the independent predictive value of the biomarkers beyond conventional risk factors was scored according to the adjustment for these risk factors. Validity of the biomarkers was determined by summarizing the methodological quality and the adjustment score. We identified 15 studies describing 27 biomarkers. Six studies had sufficient methodological quality. These studies identified 13 valid and significant markers for nephropathy in diabetes: serum interleukin 18, plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine; and urinary ceruloplasmin, immunoglobulin G and transferrin were considered valid markers predicting onset of nephropathy. Plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine, vascular cell adhesion molecule 1, interleukin 6, von Willebrand factor and intercellular cell adhesion molecule 1 were considered valid biomarkers predicting progression of nephropathy. Plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, E-selectin, tissue-type plasminogen activator, von Willebrand factor and triglycerides were considered valid markers predicting onset and progression of nephropathy. Several novel biomarkers for prediction of nephropathy in diabetes have been published, which can potentially be applied in clinical practice and research in future. Because of the heterogeneous quality of biomarker studies in this field, a more rigorous evaluation of these biomarkers and validation in larger trials are advocated.

Is doubling of serum creatinine a valid clinical 'hard' endpoint in clinical nephrology trials?

The composite of end stage renal disease (ESRD), doubling of serum creatinine and (renal) death, is a frequently used endpoint in randomized clinical trials in nephrology. Doubling of serum creatinine is a well-accepted part of this endpoint because a doubling of serum creatinine reflects a large sustained change in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and predicts the development of ESRD. Although doubling of serum creatinine is frequently used, the validity of using this outcome as part of a composite endpoint is hampered by various factors. Firstly, serum creatinine may reflect changes in muscle mass unrelated to true GFR changes. Secondly, changes in serum creatinine may reflect hemodynamic changes in renal perfusion and not a structural effect on renal function. Finally, doubling of serum creatinine is an arbitrary choice and different proportional changes may represent a better indicator for ESRD. In this minireview, each of these factors will be discussed and recommendations are made for interpretation of clinical trials using doubling of serum creatinine as a composite endpoint in nephrology trials.

Dual RAS therapy not on target, but fully alive.

Inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) form a cornerstone in the treatment of kidney disease. These drugs lower blood pressure and albuminuria, and afford renal protection. Dual therapy with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker have been shown to be more effective in reducing blood pressure and albuminuria than the single use of these agents. It was therefore expected that the combination of these drugs could delay the progression of renal disease. However, the ONTARGET renal analysis suggests that the use dual-agent RAS leads to increased renal risk. This led to vivacious discussions about the benefits and risks of dual-agent RAS in patients with nephropathy. We will review the ONTARGET trial design and interpretation, and offer implications for novel trials.

Alkalinization of urine samples preserves albumin concentrations during prolonged frozen storage in patients with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: In epidemiological studies in patients with diabetes, urine samples are often stored frozen prior to assessment of urinary albumin concentration (UAC). However, prolonged frozen storage may result in a falsely low UAC. In the current study, we investigated whether adjustment of urinary pH to alkaline values prior to frozen storage can prevent this problem. METHODS: Urine samples were collected in 90 patients from our diabetes outpatient clinic and divided into two portions. One portion was first adjusted to pH > 8.0 with 0.1 m sodium hydroxide, the other was left unprocessed. Both portions were divided into aliquots. UAC was assessed in fresh samples and after 7 days, 1, 6 and 12 months of storage at -20 and -80 degrees C. RESULTS: Until 1 month of storage there were no significant changes in UAC. After longer storage, UAC fell significantly in pH unadjusted samples stored at -20 degrees C, with a -7.6% (27.8) and -13.6% (31.7) change after 6 and 12 months storage, respectively. No significant change in UAC occurred in pH adjusted samples stored at -20 degrees C or when samples were stored at -80 degrees C, both with and without pH adjustment. Variation in UAC assessed after 12 months of storage was larger for samples stored at -20 degrees C without adjustment of pH than for the samples stored with pH adjustment or stored at -80 degrees C. CONCLUSIONS: Urine alkalinization to pH > 8.0 prevents the decline in UAC associated with 12 months of frozen storage at -20 degrees C and results in lower variation between samples after storage.

The selective vitamin D receptor activator for albuminuria lowering (VITAL) study: study design and baseline characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetic nephropathy are at high risk for further progressive renal function loss. Treatments that decrease albuminuria have been linked with renal and cardiovascular protection. However, even when taking optimal treatment, residual renal and cardiovascular risk remains high which correlates with the magnitude of residual albuminuria. Use of vitamin D receptor activators, such as calcitriol and paricalcitol, is associated with improved sur- vival. A small study with paricalcitol showed reductions in albuminuria. The VITAL study tests the hypothesis whether paricalcitol persistently reduces albuminuria in diabetic subjects already receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and/or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) therapy. METHODS: Randomization in this double-blind trial is equal allocation to paricalcitol 1 micro/day, 2 microg/day, or placebo. Inclusion criteria include: a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) between 100-3,000 mg/g, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 15-90 ml/min/1.73 m(2), serum calcium <9.8 mg/dl, and parathyroid hormone (PTH) between 35-500 pg/ml. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics of the 281 subjects are: 69% men, mean age 64.9 +/- 10.4 years, eGFR 40.7 +/- 16.7 ml/min, median UACR (interquartile range) 612.3 mg/g (281-1,181 mg/g) and PTH 98.4 +/- 63.8 pg/ml. CONCLUSION: This trial will be the first clinical test of the hypothesis that paricalcitol possesses pleiotropic effects and can modulate albuminuria in the setting of ACEI and/or ARB therapy. Results will have important clinical implications and are expected in November 2009.

Rationale for and study design of the sulodexide trials in Type 2 diabetic, hypertensive patients with microalbuminuria or overt nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Type 2 diabetes and albuminuria are at high risk to progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although angiotensin receptor blockers confer renoprotection, many diabetic patients still develop overt nephropathy and reach ESRD. Glycosaminoglycans belong to the same family as heparin and heparinoids. Pilot studies with sulodexide, a glycosaminoglycan, have shown that sulodexide can reduce urinary albumin excretion rates in diabetic patients. No hard renal end-point data are available. METHODS: Two multicentre, double-masked, randomized placebo controlled trials were designed to study the renoprotective potential of sulodexide. The Sulodexide Microalbuminuria Trial examined the efficacy of sulodexide given over 26 weeks in 1000 patients with Type 2 diabetes, hypertension and microalbuminuria. The Sulodexide Overt Nephropathy Trial examined the efficacy of sulodexide in 2240 patients with Type 2 diabetes, hypertension and proteinuria > or = 900 mg/24 h. RESULTS: The primary outcome of The Sulodexide Microalbuminuria Trial was (i) conversion to normoalbuminuria and at least a 25% decrease in the urinary albumin creatinine ratio (UACR), or (ii) at least a 50% reduction in UACR. The primary outcome of The Sulodexide Overt Nephropathy Trial was time to a composite end point of doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: The sulodexide nephropathy programme will document whether therapy with sulodexide confers renal protection in Type 2 diabetes and nephropathy.