A new prognostic model for predicting outcomes of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving subsequent line (≥2 lines) anti-programmed death-1 monotherapy.

OBJECTIVES: About 17.7-34.0 % of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC) responded well to anti-PD-1 monotherapy. We sought to establish a nomogram to estimate the progression-free survival (PFS) of RM-NPC patients receiving subsequent-line anti-PD-1 monotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cohort study investigated consecutive RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort (n = 161), using a Cox multivariate model with backward stepwise inclusion, and was validated in the validation cohort (n = 69). Its predictive accuracy was assessed using a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The primary endpoint was PFS. Secondary endpoints included the objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Liver metastasis, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA were used to develop a nomogram that could separate patients into favourable- and unfavourable-prognosis groups. The C-index in the training and validation cohort were 0.70 and 0.68, respectively, which was confirmed by calibration curves. Median PFS (mPFS) was lower for the unfavourable-prognosis than for the favourable-prognosis group (1.80 vs 4.93; hazard ratio 2.49 [95 % confidence interval: 1.78-3.49]; p < 0.001), across all subgroups. OS exhibited the same pattern. The ORR and DCR were markedly lower in the unfavourable-prognosis than in the favourable-prognosis group. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our model is a reliable prognostic indicator of PFS in RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy, allowing robust estimation of the immunotherapy benefit an individual might derive.

Can the prognosis of individual patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma be predicted using a routine blood test at admission?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to determine the prognostic value of a pre-treatment peripheral blood signature and the peripheral blood signature-based nomogram for patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively collected 21 peripheral blood indicators from patients with NPC between 2004 and 2015. Data were randomly divided into a training and a validation set (ratio: 6:4). The peripheral blood signature was constructed based on candidate biomarkers using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to identify the independent risk factors of overall survival to build the nomogram. The predictive value of the peripheral blood nomogram was evaluated using time-dependent area under the curve, decision curve analysis, and calibration curve. RESULTS: In total, 6668 patients were enrolled with 4000 and 2668 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Four peripheral blood indicators, (white blood cell count, lymphocyte percentage, haemoglobin, and mean platelet volume), were included to construct the peripheral blood signature. Patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups using an optimal cut-off value of - 1.71142. Patients in the high-risk group had significantly lower overall, distant metastasis-free, and progression-free survival than patients in the low-risk group in both cohorts (P < 0.05). We constructed and validated a peripheral blood signature-based nomogram in combination with five vital clinical characteristics, (age, sex, tumour stage, nodal stage, and pre-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA), which showed favourable performance. CONCLUSION: Patients with NPC with different outcomes could be distinguished based on their peripheral blood signature score; the proposed peripheral blood signature-based nomogram offers individualised risk estimation.