Intradural extramedullary metastasis: a review of literature and case report.

Introduction: Intradural extramedullary (IDEM) metastatic disease is infrequently encountered by spine surgeons and consequently poorly understood. Discovery often corresponds with the onset of neurologic symptoms and no consensus exists regarding the importance of complete resection or anticipated postoperative outcome. We aim to elucidate treatment methodologies that exist in the literature. Case presentation: We present a unique case of a 57-year-old male with a known history of esophageal adenocarcinoma, including brain and visceral metastases, who presented with cauda equina syndrome. An IDEM metastatic esophageal adenocarcinoma lesion was identified on advanced imaging and biopsy. This was treated operatively without return of neurologic function. Discussion: We reviewed and summarized the existing literature. Trends are highlighted to further guide surgeons treating this unusual metastatic phenomenon. Conclusion: Intradural metastasis is a harbinger of advanced disease with a poor prognosis regardless of the etiology of the primary lesion. There are a number of proposed mechanisms for metastatic spread with little available literature for surgeon guidance. Most authors are advocates of a palliative, decompressive approach.

Intraoperative Use of External Fixator Attachments for Reduction of Lower Extremity Fractures and Dislocations.

The mainstay of complex open lower extremity fractures and dislocations is the temporizing external fixator. We propose the use of external fixator attachments that allow for the reduction of fractures and dislocations intraoperatively. By using external fixator carbon fiber rods, the surgeon is able to create a capital "T" (sweet T) shaped attachment and connect this to a Schanz pin. Simultaneously, the external fixator carbon fiber rods can be configured into the shape of a capital Greek letter pi (Cherry II) and applied to an external fixator pin. When both of these configurations are used, multi-directional forces can be applied across the fracture fragments with the added benefit of using extrinsic hand muscle power for force generation and manipulation of fracture fragments to facilitate reduction.

Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout.

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose-rate occupational and perhaps environmental exposures and for exposures to x rays and high-LET radiations used in medicine. The development of models for more reliably combining the epidemiology data with experimental laboratory animal and cellular data can enhance the overall risk assessment approach by providing biologically refined data to strengthen the estimation of effects at low doses as opposed to the sole use of mathematical models of epidemiological data that are primarily driven by medium/high doses. NASA's approach to radiation protection for astronauts, although a unique occupational group, indicates the possible applicability of estimates of risk and their uncertainty in a broader context for developing recommendations on: (1) dose limits for occupational exposure and exposure of members of the public; (2) criteria to limit exposures of workers and members of the public to radon and its short-lived decay products; and (3) the dosimetric quantity (effective dose) used in radiation protection.

RadRAT: a radiation risk assessment tool for lifetime cancer risk projection.

Risk projection methods allow for timely assessment of the potential magnitude of radiation-related cancer risks following low-dose radiation exposures. The estimation of such risks directly through observational studies would generally require infeasibly large studies and long-term follow-up to achieve reasonable statistical power. We developed an online radiation risk assessment tool (RadRAT) which can be used to estimate the lifetime risk of radiation-related cancer with uncertainty intervals following a user-specified exposure history (https://irep.nci.nih.gov/radrat). The uncertainty intervals constitute a key component of the program because of the various assumptions that are involved in such calculations. The risk models used in RadRAT are broadly based on those developed by the BEIR VII committee for estimating lifetime risk following low-dose radiation exposure of the US population for eleven site-specific cancers. We developed new risk models for seven additional cancer sites, oral, oesophagus, gallbladder, pancreas, rectum, kidney and brain/central nervous system (CNS) cancers, using data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The lifetime risk estimates are slightly higher for RadRAT than for BEIR VII across all exposure ages mostly because the weighting of the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk models was conducted on an arithmetic rather than a logarithmic scale. The calculator can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risk from both uniform and non-uniform doses that are acute or chronic. It is most appropriate for low-LET radiation doses < 1 Gy, and for individuals with life-expectancy and cancer rates similar to the general population in the US.

Lauriston S. Taylor lecture: Radiation Protection and Public Policy in an Uncertain World.

Ionizing radiation is a known, well-documented, and reasonably well-quantified human cancer risk factor based on a remarkably consistent body of dose-response information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations supported by experimental studies using animal and cellular models. This fact is largely ascribable to the relative ease, compared to other carcinogens, of estimating radiation dose to organs and local tissues. Statistical models for radiation-related cancer risk are increasingly relevant to both radiation protection policy and the adjudication of compensation claims for cancers diagnosed following occupational and environmental exposures to ionizing radiation, as discussed in a number of expert committee reports of national and international organizations concerned with radiation-related risks. These and other publications increasingly emphasize the relevance of well-quantified uncertainties in radiation-related risk projections, including upper and lower confidence or uncertainty bounds, for radiation protection. Finally, the wealth of detailed information provided by such quantitative uncertainty analysis approaches is highly relevant to radiation protection, which might be viewed as a political process that involves a diverse group of stakeholders who, individually, may be primarily concerned with avoiding possible radiation-related risks or with avoiding possibly unnecessary costs of risk reduction or unnecessary denial of benefits that require some radiation exposure, or with balancing both considerations to some degree.

Associations of ionizing radiation and breast cancer-related serum hormone and growth factor levels in cancer-free female A-bomb survivors.

Levels of exposure to ionizing radiation are increasing for women worldwide due to the widespread use of CT and other radiologic diagnostic modalities. Exposure to ionizing radiation as well as increased levels of estradiol and other sex hormones are acknowledged breast cancer risk factors, but the effects of whole-body radiation on serum hormone levels in cancer-free women are unknown. This study examined whether ionizing radiation exposure is associated with levels of serum hormones and other markers that may mediate radiation-associated breast cancer risk. Serum samples were measured from cancer-free women who attended biennial health examinations with a wide range of past radiation exposure levels (N  =  412, ages 26-79). The women were selected as controls for separate case-control studies from a cohort of A-bomb survivors. Outcome measures included serum levels of total estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, testosterone, progesterone, prolactin, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF1), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and ferritin. Relationships were assessed using repeated-measures regression models fitted with generalized estimating equations. Geometric mean serum levels of total estradiol and bioavailable estradiol increased with 1 Gy of radiation dose among samples collected from postmenopausal women (17%(1Gy), 95% CI: 1%-36% and 21%(1Gy), 95% CI: 4%-40%, respectively), while they decreased in samples collected from premenopausal women (-11%(1Gy), 95% CI: -20%-1% and -12%(1Gy), 95% CI: -20%- -2%, respectively). Interactions by menopausal status were significant (P  =  0.003 and P < 0.001, respectively). Testosterone levels increased with radiation dose in postmenopausal samples (30.0%(1Gy), 95% CI: 13%-49%) while they marginally decreased in premenopausal samples (-10%(1Gy), 95% CI: -19%-0%) and the interaction by menopausal status was significant (P < 0.001). Serum levels of IGF1 increased linearly with radiation dose (11%(1Gy), 95% CI: 2%-18%) and there was a significant interaction by menopausal status (P  =  0.014). Radiation-associated changes in serum levels of estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, testosterone and IGF1 were modified by menopausal status at the time of collection. No associations with radiation were observed in serum levels of progesterone, prolactin, IGFBP-3 or ferritin.

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999, and its relationship to radiation exposure.

The data on risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease due to radiation exposure at low or medium doses are inconsistent. This paper reports an analysis of the Semipalatinsk historical cohort exposed to radioactive fallout from nuclear testing in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Kazakhstan. The cohort study, which includes 19,545 persons of exposed and comparison villages in the Semipalatinsk region, had been set up in the 1960s and comprises 582,656 person-years of follow-up between 1960 and 1999. A dosimetric approach developed by the U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI) has been used. Radiation dose estimates in this cohort range from 0 to 630 mGy (whole-body external). Overall, the exposed population showed a high mortality from cardiovascular disease. Rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in the exposed group substantially exceeded those of the comparison group. Dose-response analyses were conducted for both the entire cohort and the exposed group only. A dose-response relationship that was found when analyzing the entire cohort could be explained completely by differences between the baseline rates in exposed and unexposed groups. When taking this difference into account, no statistically significant dose-response relationship for all cardiovascular disease, for heart disease, or for stroke was found. Our results suggest that within this population and at the level of doses estimated, there is no detectable risk of radiation-related mortality from cardiovascular disease.

Behavior and food consumption pattern of the population exposed in 1949-1962 to fallout from Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan.

The relationship between radiation exposure from nuclear weapons testing fallout and thyroid disease in a group of 2,994 subjects has been the subject of study by the US National Cancer Institute. In that study, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for residents of villages in Kazakhstan possibly exposed to deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear testing conducted by the Soviet Union at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan between 1949 and 1962. The study subjects included individuals of both Kazakh and Russian origin who were exposed during childhood and adolescence. An initial dose reconstruction used for the risk analysis of Land et al. (Radiat Res 169:373-383, 2008) was based on individual information collected from basic questionnaires administered to the study population in 1998. However, because data on several key questions for accurately estimating doses were not obtained from the 1998 questionnaires, it was decided to conduct a second data collection campaign in 2007. Due to the many years elapsed since exposure, a well-developed strategy was necessary to encourage accurate memory recall. In our recent study, a focus group interview data collection methodology was used to collect historical behavioral and food consumption data. The data collection in 2007 involved interviews conducted within four-eight-person focus groups (three groups of women and one group of men) in each of four exposed villages where thyroid disease screening was conducted in 1998. Population-based data on relevant childhood behaviors including time spent in- and outdoors and consumption rates of milk and other dairy products were collected from women's groups. The data were collected for five age groups of children and adolescents ranging from less than 1 year of age to 21 years of age. Dairy products considered included fresh milk and other products from cows, goats, mares, and sheep. Men's focus group interviews pertained to construction materials of houses and schools, and animal grazing patterns and feeding practices. The response data collected are useful for improving estimates of thyroid radiation dose estimates for the subjects of an ongoing epidemiological study.

Breast cancer risk from different mammography screening practices.

Mammography screening is an accepted procedure for early detection of breast tumors among asymptomatic women. Since this procedure involves the use of X rays, it is itself potentially carcinogenic. Although there is general consensus about the benefit of screening for older women, screening practices differ between countries. In this paper radiation risks for these different practices are estimated using a new approach. We model breast cancer induction by ionizing radiation in a cohort of patients exposed to frequent X-ray examinations. The biologically based, mechanistic model provides a better foundation for the extrapolation of risks to different mammography screening practices than empirical models do. The model predicts that the excess relative risk (ERR) doubles when screening starts at age 40 instead of 50 and that a continuation of screening at ages 75 and higher carries little extra risk. The number of induced fatal breast cancers is estimated to be considerably lower than derived from epidemiological studies and from internationally accepted radiation protection risks. The present findings, if used in a risk-benefit analysis for mammography screening, would be more favorable to screening than estimates currently recommended for radiation protection. This has implications for the screening ages that are currently being reconsidered in several countries.

Cancer mortality among women frequently exposed to radiographic examinations for spinal disorders.

We studied cancer mortality in a cohort of 5,573 women with scoliosis and other spine disorders who were diagnosed between 1912 and 1965 and were exposed to frequent diagnostic X-ray procedures. Patients were identified from medical records in 14 orthopedic medical centers in the United States and followed for vital status and address through December 31, 2004, using publicly available regional, state and nationwide databases. Causes of death were obtained from death certificates or through linkage with the National Death Index (NDI). Statistical analyses included standardized mortality ratios (SMR = observed/expected) based on death rates for U.S. females and internal comparisons using Cox regression models with attained age as the time scale. Diagnostic radiation exposure was estimated from radiology files for over 137,000 procedures; estimated average cumulative radiation doses to the breast, lung, thyroid and bone marrow were 10.9, 4.1, 7.4 and 1.0 cGy, respectively. After a median follow-up period of 47 years, 1527 women died, including 355 from cancer. Cancer mortality was 8% higher than expected (95% CI = 0.97-1.20). Mortality from breast cancer was significantly elevated (SMR = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.38-2.02), whereas death rates from several other cancers were below expectation, in particular lung (SMR = 0.77), cervical (SMR = 0.31), and liver (SMR = 0.17). The excess relative risk (ERR) for breast cancer mortality increased significantly with 10-year lagged radiation dose to the breast (ERR/Gy = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.0-9.3).

Radiation doses and cancer risks in the Marshall Islands associated with exposure to radioactive fallout from Bikini and Enewetak nuclear weapons tests: summary.

Nuclear weapons testing conducted at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls during 1946-1958 resulted in exposures of the resident population of the present-day Republic of the Marshall Islands to radioactive fallout. This paper summarizes the results of a thorough and systematic reconstruction of radiation doses to that population, by year, age at exposure, and atoll of residence, and the related cancer risks. Detailed methods and results are presented in a series of companion papers in this volume. From our analysis, we concluded that 20 of the 66 nuclear tests conducted in or near the Marshall Islands resulted in measurable fallout deposition on one or more of the inhabited atolls of the Marshall Islands. In this work, we estimated deposition densities (kBq m(-2)) of all important dose-contributing radionuclides at each of the 32 atolls and separate reef islands of the Marshall Islands. Quantitative deposition estimates were made for 63 radionuclides from each test at each atoll. Those estimates along with reported measurements of exposure rates at various times after fallout were used to estimate radiation absorbed doses to the red bone marrow, thyroid gland, stomach wall, and colon wall of atoll residents from both external and internal exposure. Annual doses were estimated for six age groups ranging from newborns to adults. We found that the total deposition of 137Cs, external dose, internal organ doses, and cancer risks followed the same geographic pattern with the large population of the southern atolls receiving the lowest doses. Permanent residents of the southern atolls who were of adult age at the beginning of the testing period received external doses ranging from 5 to 12 mGy on average; the external doses to adults at the mid-latitude atolls ranged from 22 to 59 mGy on average, while the residents of the northern atolls received external doses in the hundreds to over 1,000 mGy. Internal doses varied significantly by age at exposure, location, and organ. Except for internal doses to the thyroid gland, external exposure was generally the major contributor to organ doses, particularly for red bone marrow and stomach wall. Internal doses to the stomach wall and red bone marrow were similar in magnitude, about 1 mGy to 7 mGy for permanent residents of the southern and mid-latitude atolls. However, adult residents of Utrik and Rongelap Island, which are part of the northern atolls, received much higher internal doses because of intakes of short-lived radionuclides leading to doses from 20 mGy to more than 500 mGy to red bone marrow and stomach wall. In general, internal doses to the colon wall were four to ten times greater than those to the red bone marrow and internal doses to the thyroid gland were 20 to 30 times greater than to the red bone marrow. Adult internal thyroid doses for the Utrik community and for the Rongelap Island community were about 760 mGy and 7,600 mGy, respectively. The highest doses were to the thyroid glands of young children exposed on Rongelap at the time of the Castle Bravo test of 1 March 1954 and were about three times higher than for adults. Internal doses from chronic intakes, related to residual activities of long-lived radionuclides in the environment, were, in general, low in comparison with acute exposure resulting from the intakes of radionuclides immediately or soon after the deposition of fallout. The annual doses and the population sizes at each atoll in each year were used to develop estimates of cancer risks for the permanent residents of all atolls that were inhabited during the testing period as well as for the Marshallese population groups that were relocated prior to the testing or after it had begun. About 170 excess cancers (radiation-related cases) are projected to occur among more than 25,000 Marshallese, half of whom were born before 1948. All but about 65 of those cancers are estimated to have already been expressed. The 170 excess cancers are in comparison to about 10,600 cancers that would spontaneously arise, unrelated to radioactive fallout, among the same cohort of Marshallese people.

Projected lifetime cancer risks from exposure to regional radioactive fallout in the Marshall Islands.

Radioactive fallout from nuclear test detonations during 1946-1958 at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls in the Marshall Islands (MI) exposed populations living elsewhere in the MI archipelago. A comprehensive analysis, presented in seven companion papers, has produced estimates of tissue-specific radiation absorbed dose to MI residents at all historically inhabited atolls from internal (ingested) and external irradiation resulting from exposure to radioactive fallout, by calendar year, and by age of the population at time of exposure. The present report deals, for the first time, with the implications of these doses for cancer risk among exposed members of the MI population. Radiation doses differed by geographic location and year of birth, and radiation-related cancer risk depends upon age at exposure and age at observation for risk. Using dose-response models based on committee reports published by the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health, we project that, during the lifetimes of members of the MI population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from weapons test fallout deposited during the testing period (1948-1958) and from residual radioactive sources during the subsequent 12 y (1959-1970), perhaps 1.6% (with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% to 3.4%) of all cancers might be attributable to fallout-related radiation exposures. By sub-population, the projected proportion of cancers attributable to radiation from fallout from all nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands is 55% (28% to 69%) among 82 persons exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae, 10% (2.4% to 22%) for 157 persons exposed on Utrik, and 2.2% (0.5% to 4.8%) and 0.8% (0.2% to 1.8%), respectively, for the much larger populations exposed in mid-latitude locations including Kwajalein and in southern locations including Majuro. By cancer type, point estimates of attributable risk varied, by location, between 12% and 95% for thyroid cancer, between 2% and 78% for leukemia, and between 0.8% and 55% for all cancers combined. The largest projected risks pertain to the Rongelap Island community and the lowest risks pertain to the populations resident on the southern-most atolls. While the projected cancer risks are smaller than those estimated by the National Cancer Institute in a more simplistic analysis conducted in 2004, these estimates of cancer risk are the best available as they are based on the most detailed dose reconstruction to date and comprehensively include populations at all locations and dose contributions from all nuclear tests.

Projected cancer risks from computed tomographic scans performed in the United States in 2007.

BACKGROUND: The use of computed tomographic (CT) scans in the United States (US) has increased more than 3-fold since 1993 to approximately 70 million scans annually. Despite the great medical benefits, there is concern about the potential radiation-related cancer risk. We conducted detailed estimates of the future cancer risks from current CT scan use in the US according to age, sex, and scan type. METHODS: Risk models based on the National Research Council's "Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation" report and organ-specific radiation doses derived from a national survey were used to estimate age-specific cancer risks for each scan type. These models were combined with age- and sex-specific scan frequencies for the US in 2007 obtained from survey and insurance claims data. We estimated the mean number of radiation-related incident cancers with 95% uncertainty limits (UL) using Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: Overall, we estimated that approximately 29 000 (95% UL, 15 000-45 000) future cancers could be related to CT scans performed in the US in 2007. The largest contributions were from scans of the abdomen and pelvis (n = 14 000) (95% UL, 6900-25 000), chest (n = 4100) (95% UL, 1900-8100), and head (n = 4000) (95% UL, 1100-8700), as well as from chest CT angiography (n = 2700) (95% UL, 1300-5000). One-third of the projected cancers were due to scans performed at the ages of 35 to 54 years compared with 15% due to scans performed at ages younger than 18 years, and 66% were in females. CONCLUSIONS: These detailed estimates highlight several areas of CT scan use that make large contributions to the total cancer risk, including several scan types and age groups with a high frequency of use or scans involving relatively high doses, in which risk-reduction efforts may be warranted.

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Incidence of carcinoma of the major salivary glands according to the WHO classification, 1992 to 2006: a population-based study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Carcinomas of the major salivary glands (M-SGC) comprise a morphologically diverse group of rare tumors of largely unknown cause. To gain insight into etiology, we evaluated incidence of M-SGC using the WHO classification schema (WHO-2005). METHODS: We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates (IR) and IR ratios (IRR) for M-SGC diagnosed between 1992 and 2006 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program. RESULTS: Overall, 6,391 M-SGC (IR, 11.95/1,000,000 person-years) were diagnosed during 1992 to 2006. Nearly 85% of cases (n = 5,370; IR, 10.00) were encompassed within WHO-2005, and among these, males had higher IRs than females [IRR, 1.51; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.43-1.60]. Squamous cell (IR, 3.44) and mucoepidermoid (IR, 3.23) carcinomas occurred most frequently among males, whereas mucoepidermoid (IR, 2.67), acinic cell (IR, 1.57), and adenoid cystic (IR, 1.40) carcinomas were most common among females. Mucoepidermoid, acinic cell, and adenoid cystic carcinomas predominated in females through age approximately 50 years; thereafter, IRs of acinic cell and adenoid cystic carcinomas were nearly equal among females and males, whereas IRs of mucoepidermoid carcinoma among males exceeded IRs among females (IRR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.38-1.78). Except for mucoepidermoid and adenoid cystic carcinomas, which occurred equally among all races, other subtypes had significantly lower incidence among Blacks and Asians/Pacific Islanders than among Whites. Adenoid cystic carcinoma occurred equally in the submandibular and parotid glands, and other M-SGC histologic subtypes evaluated had 77% to 98% lower IRs in the submandibular gland. Overall M-SGC IRs remained stable during 1992 to 2006. CONCLUSION: Distinct incidence patterns according to histologic subtype suggest that M-SGC are a diverse group of neoplasms characterized by etiologic and/or biological heterogeneity with varying susceptibility by gender and race.

Thyroid nodules, polymorphic variants in DNA repair and RET-related genes, and interaction with ionizing radiation exposure from nuclear tests in Kazakhstan.

Risk factors for thyroid cancer remain largely unknown except for ionizing radiation exposure during childhood and a history of benign thyroid nodules. Because thyroid nodules are more common than thyroid cancers and are associated with thyroid cancer risk, we evaluated several polymorphisms potentially relevant to thyroid tumors and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland. Thyroid nodules were detected in 1998 by ultrasound screening of 2997 persons who lived near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan when they were children (1949-1962). Cases with thyroid nodules (n = 907) were frequency matched (1:1) to those without nodules by ethnicity (Kazakh or Russian), gender and age at screening. Thyroid gland radiation doses were estimated from fallout deposition patterns, residence history and diet. We analyzed 23 polymorphisms in 13 genes and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure using likelihood ratio tests (LRT). Elevated thyroid nodule risks were associated with the minor alleles of RET S836S (rs1800862, P = 0.03) and GFRA1 -193C>G (rs not assigned, P = 0.05) and decreased risk with XRCC1 R194W (rs1799782, P trend = 0.03) and TGFB1 T263I (rs1800472, P = 0.009). Similar patterns of association were observed for a small number of papillary thyroid cancers (n = 25). Ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland was associated with significantly increased risk of thyroid nodules (age and gender adjusted excess odds ratio/Gy = 0.30, 95% CI 0.05-0.56), with evidence for interaction by genotype found for XRCC1 R194W (LRT P value = 0.02). Polymorphisms in RET signaling, DNA repair and proliferation genes may be related to risk of thyroid nodules, consistent with some previous reports on thyroid cancer. Borderline support for gene-radiation interaction was found for a variant in XRCC1, a key base excision repair protein. Other pathways such as genes in double-strand break repair, apoptosis and genes related to proliferation should also be pursued.

Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP): a web-based tool for estimating probability of causation/assigned share of radiogenic cancers.

The Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP) is a Web-based, interactive computer code that is used to estimate the probability that a given cancer in an individual was induced by given exposures to ionizing radiation. IREP was developed by a Working Group of the National Cancer Institute and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and was adopted and modified by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for use in adjudicating claims for compensation for cancer under the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000. In this paper, the quantity calculated in IREP is referred to as "probability of causation/assigned share" (PC/AS). PC/AS for a given cancer in an individual is calculated on the basis of an estimate of the excess relative risk (ERR) associated with given radiation exposures and the relationship PC/AS = ERR/ERR+1. IREP accounts for uncertainties in calculating probability distributions of ERR and PC/AS. An accounting of uncertainty is necessary when decisions about granting claims for compensation for cancer are made on the basis of an estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS to give claimants the "benefit of the doubt." This paper discusses models and methods incorporated in IREP to estimate ERR and PC/AS. Approaches to accounting for uncertainty are emphasized, and limitations of IREP are discussed. Although IREP is intended to provide unbiased estimates of ERR and PC/AS and their uncertainties to represent the current state of knowledge, there are situations described in this paper in which NIOSH, as a matter of policy, makes assumptions that give a higher estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS than other plausible alternatives and, thus, are more favorable to claimants.

Multiple diagnostic X-rays for spine deformities and risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Ionizing radiation is a well-established human mammary carcinogen. Women historically monitored by radiography at young ages for abnormal spinal curvature are an exposed population suitable for investigating radiation-related risk and its variation by modifying factors. In this historic cohort, 95% of daily dose increments (when exposure to the breast occurred) were under 2.4 cGy, with mean 1.1 cGy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 3,010 women, diagnosed with spinal curvature between 1912 and 1965 in 14 U.S. pediatric orthopedic centers and who completed a questionnaire by telephone interview or mail survey in 1992, were studied for risk of breast cancer by radiation dose to the breast (mean, 12 cGy) after adjustment for established breast cancer risk factors. RESULTS: A borderline-significant radiation dose response (excess relative risk/Gy = 2.86; P = 0.058; one-tailed P = 0.029) was observed during 118,905 woman-years of follow-up (median, 35.5 years) based on 78 cases of invasive breast cancer. The dose response was significantly greater (P = 0.03) for women who reported a family history of breast cancer in first- or second-degree relatives (excess relative risk/Gy = 8.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.50-28.16). Radiation-related risk did not vary significantly by stage of reproductive development at exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming that repair of radiation-related DNA damage requires at most a few hours, our data argue against existence of a low-dose threshold on the order of 1 to 3 cGy for radiation exposure contributing to breast carcinogenesis. The possibility that a family history of breast cancer may have enhanced a carcinogenic radiation effect requires confirmation in other studies.