Incidence of and Factors Associated With Recurrent Firearm Injury Among Patients Presenting to St. Louis Trauma Centers, 2010 to 2019 : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Firearm injuries are a public health crisis in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To examine the incidence and factors associated with recurrent firearm injuries and death among patients presenting with an acute (index), nonfatal firearm injury. DESIGN: Multicenter, observational, cohort study. SETTING: Four adult and pediatric level I trauma hospitals in St. Louis, Missouri, 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult and pediatric patients (n = 9553) presenting to a participating hospital with a nonfatal acute firearm injury. MEASUREMENTS: Data on firearm-injured patient demographics, hospital and diagnostic information, health insurance status, and death were collected from the St. Louis Region-Wide Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program Data Repository. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index was used to characterize the social vulnerability of the census tracts of patients' residences. Analysis included descriptive statistics and time-to-event analyses estimating the probability of experiencing a recurrent firearm injury. RESULTS: We identified 10 293 acutely firearm-injured patients of whom 9553 survived the injury and comprised the analytic sample. Over a median follow-up of 3.5 years (IQR, 1.5 to 6.4 years), 1155 patients experienced a recurrent firearm injury including 5 firearm suicides and 149 fatal firearm injuries. Persons experiencing recurrent firearm injury were young (25.3 ± 9.5 years), predominantly male (93%), Black (96%), and uninsured (50%), and resided in high social vulnerability regions (65%). The estimated risk for firearm reinjury was 7% at 1 year and 17% at 8 years. LIMITATIONS: Limited data on comorbidities and patient-level social determinants of health. Inability to account for recurrent injuries presenting to nonstudy hospitals. CONCLUSION: Recurrent injury and death are frequent among survivors of firearm injury, particularly among patients from socially vulnerable areas. Our findings highlight the need for interventions to prevent recurrence. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Emergency Medicine Foundation-AFFIRM and Missouri Foundation for Health.

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Synthetic Data Derivatives for Spine Surgery Research.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVES: Leveraging electronic health records (EHRs) for spine surgery research is impeded by concerns regarding patient privacy and data ownership. Synthetic data derivatives may help overcome these limitations. This study's objective was to validate the use of synthetic data for spine surgery research. METHODS: Data came from the EHR from 15 hospitals. Patients that underwent anterior cervical or posterior lumbar fusion (2010-2020) were included. Real data were obtained from the EHR. Synthetic data was generated to simulate the properties of the real data, without maintaining a one-to-one correspondence with real patients. Within each cohort, ability to predict 30-day readmissions and 30-day complications was evaluated using logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting machines (XGBoost). RESULTS: We identified 9,072 real and 9,088 synthetic cervical fusion patients. Descriptive characteristics were nearly identical between the 2 datasets. When predicting readmission, models built using real and synthetic data both had c-statistics of .69-.71 using logistic regression and XGBoost. Among 12,111 real and 12,126 synthetic lumbar fusion patients, descriptive characteristics were nearly the same for most variables. Using logistic regression and XGBoost to predict readmission, discrimination was similar with models built using real and synthetic data (c-statistics .66-.69). When predicting complications, models derived using real and synthetic data showed similar discrimination in both cohorts. Despite some differences, the most influential predictors were similar in the real and synthetic datasets. CONCLUSION: Synthetic data replicate most descriptive and predictive properties of real data, and therefore may expand EHR research in spine surgery.

Individual differences in postoperative recovery trajectories for adult symptomatic lumbar scoliosis.

OBJECTIVE: The Adult Symptomatic Lumbar Scoliosis-1 (ASLS-1) trial demonstrated the benefit of adult symptomatic lumbar scoliosis (ASLS) surgery. However, the extent to which individuals differ in their postoperative recovery trajectories is unknown. This study's objective was to evaluate variability in and factors moderating recovery trajectories after ASLS surgery. METHODS: The authors used longitudinal, multilevel models to analyze postoperative recovery trajectories following ASLS surgery. Study outcomes included the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score and Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) subscore, which were measured every 3 months until 2 years postoperatively. The authors evaluated the influence of preoperative disability level, along with other potential trajectory moderators, including radiographic, comorbidity, pain/function, demographic, and surgical factors. The impact of different parameters was measured using the R2, which represented the amount of variability in ODI/SRS-22 explained by each model. The R2 ranged from 0 (no variability explained) to 1 (100% of variability explained). RESULTS: Among 178 patients, there was substantial variability in recovery trajectories. Applying the average trajectory to each patient explained only 15% of the variability in ODI and 21% of the variability in SRS-22 subscore. Differences in preoperative disability (ODI/SRS-22) had the strongest influence on recovery trajectories, with patients having moderate disability experiencing the greatest and most rapid improvement after surgery. Reflecting this impact, accounting for the preoperative ODI/SRS-22 level explained an additional 56%-57% of variability in recovery trajectory, while differences in the rate of postoperative change explained another 7%-9%. Among the effect moderators tested, pain/function variables-such as visual analog scale back pain score-had the biggest impact, explaining 21%-25% of variability in trajectories. Radiographic parameters were the least influential, explaining only 3%-6% more variance than models with time alone. The authors identified several significant trajectory moderators in the final model, such as significant adverse events and the number of levels fused. CONCLUSIONS: ASLS patients have highly variable postoperative recovery trajectories, although most reach steady state at 12 months. Preoperative disability was the most important influence, although other factors, such as number of levels fused, also impacted recovery.

Utility of Facebook's Social Connectedness Index in Modeling COVID-19 Spread: Exponential Random Graph Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 (the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) pandemic has underscored the need for additional data, tools, and methods that can be used to combat emerging and existing public health concerns. Since March 2020, there has been substantial interest in using social media data to both understand and intervene in the pandemic. Researchers from many disciplines have recently found a relationship between COVID-19 and a new data set from Facebook called the Social Connectedness Index (SCI). OBJECTIVE: Building off this work, we seek to use the SCI to examine how social similarity of Missouri counties could explain similarities of COVID-19 cases over time. Additionally, we aim to add to the body of literature on the utility of the SCI by using a novel modeling technique. METHODS: In September 2020, we conducted this cross-sectional study using publicly available data to test the association between the SCI and COVID-19 spread in Missouri using exponential random graph models, which model relational data, and the outcome variable must be binary, representing the presence or absence of a relationship. In our model, this was the presence or absence of a highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectory between two given counties in Missouri. Covariates included each county's total population, percent rurality, and distance between each county pair. RESULTS: We found that all covariates were significantly associated with two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories. As the log of a county's total population increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 66% (odds ratio [OR] 1.66, 95% CI 1.43-1.92). As the percent of a county classified as rural increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 1% (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01). As the distance (in miles) between two counties increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories decreased by 43% (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.77). Lastly, as the log of the SCI between two Missouri counties increased, the odds of those two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories significantly increased by 17% (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26). CONCLUSIONS: These results could suggest that two counties with a greater likelihood of sharing Facebook friendships means residents of those counties have a higher likelihood of sharing similar belief systems, in particular as they relate to COVID-19 and public health practices. Another possibility is that the SCI is picking up travel or movement data among county residents. This suggests the SCI is capturing a unique phenomenon relevant to COVID-19 and that it may be worth adding to other COVID-19 models. Additional research is needed to better understand what the SCI is capturing practically and what it means for public health policies and prevention practices.

Positioning public health surveillance for observational studies and clinical trials: The St. Louis region-wide hospital-based violence intervention program data repository.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm injuries are a public health epidemic in the United States, yet a comprehensive national database for patients with firearm injuries does not exist. Here we describe the methods for a study to develop and query a new regional database of all patients who present to a St. Louis level I trauma hospital with a violent injury, the St. Louis Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program Data Repository (STL-HVIP-DR). We hypothesize that the STL-HVIP-DR will facilitate identification of patients at risk for violent injury and serve as a comparison population for participants enrolled in clinical trials. METHODS: The STL-HVIP-DR includes all visits made for violent injury to four level I trauma hospitals in St. Louis, Missouri between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019. Two health systems representing the four participating hospitals executed a data sharing agreement to aggregate clinical data on firearm injuries, stabbings, and blunt assaults. Dataset variables include demographic hospital and timestamp, medical, and insurance information. RESULTS: A preliminary cross-sectional query of the STL-HVIP-DR reveals 121,955 patient visits among the four partner level I trauma hospitals for a violent injury between 2010 and 2019. This includes over 18,000 patient visits for firearm injury. DISCUSSION: The STL-HVIP-DR repository fills a critical gap regarding identification and outcomes among individuals who are violently injured, especially those with non-lethal firearm injuries. It is our hope that the methods presented in this paper will serve as a primer to develop repositories to help target violence prevention services in other regions.

Estimating the effects of race and social vulnerability on hospital admission and mortality from COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of hospital admission and mortality from COVID-19 to patients and measure the association of race and area-level social vulnerability with those outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using patient records collected at a multisite hospital system from April 2020 to October 2020, the risk of hospital admission and the risk of mortality were estimated for patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to the hospital for COVID-19, respectively, using generalized estimating equations while controlling for patient race, patient area-level social vulnerability, and time course of the pandemic. RESULTS: Black individuals were 3.57 as likely (95% CI, 3.18-4.00) to be hospitalized than White people, and patients living in the most disadvantaged areas were 2.61 times as likely (95% CI, 2.26-3.02) to be hospitalized than those living in the least disadvantaged areas. While Black patients had lower raw mortality than White patients, mortality was similar after controlling for comorbidities and social vulnerability. DISCUSSION: Our findings point to potent correlates of race and socioeconomic status, including resource distribution, employment, and shared living spaces, that may be associated with inequitable burden of disease across patients of different races. CONCLUSIONS: Public health and policy interventions should address these social factors when responding to the next pandemic.