Assessing research capacity in Victoria's south-west health service providers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the research interest, capacity and culture in individuals, teams and health organisations across south-western Victoria. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Eight public health services in the south-western region of Victoria. PARTICIPANTS: All staff were invited to participate. INTERVENTION: Hospital staff survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The Research Capacity and Culture tool. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 776 staff including nurses, allied health staff and doctors. Half of the respondents were currently involved in research, while most wanted to be more involved. Respondents reported having moderate research skills and success at individual, team and organisation levels. Women and nurses reported having lower skills than comparable groups. Motivators for undertaking research were skill development (increased job satisfaction and brain stimulation) while the most commonly selected barriers were lack of time, other work taking priority and lack of funding. CONCLUSION: Health organisations in regional and rural Victoria could harness opportunities to enable staff participation in research by supporting identified strengths, addressing barriers and providing "permission" for staff to get involved in research. Efforts to improve research capacity among women and nurses could lead to the greatest overall improvement in organisations' research capacity and output-and translation of evidence into practice.

Why do 'fast track' patients stay more than four hours in the emergency department? An investigation of factors that predict length of stay.

OBJECTIVE: Low-acuity 'fast track' patients represent a large portion of Australian EDs' workload and must be managed efficiently to meet the National Emergency Access Target. The current study determined the relative importance and estimated marginal effects of patient and system-related variables in predicting ED fast track patients who stayed longer than 4 h in the ED. METHODS: Data for ED presentations between 1 July 2014 and 30 June 2015 were collected from a large regional Australian public hospital. Only 'fast track' patients were included in the analysis. A gradient boosting machine was used to predict which patients would have an ED length of stay greater or less than 4 h. The performance of the final model was tested using a validation data set that was withheld from the initial analysis. A total of 27 variables were analysed. RESULTS: The model's performance was very good (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.89, where 1.0 is perfect prediction). The five most important variables for predicting length of stay were time-dependent and system-related (not patient-related); these were the amount of time taken from when the patient arrived at the ED to: (i) order imaging; (ii) order pathology; (iii) request admission to hospital; (iv) allocate a clinician to care for the patient; and (v) handover a patient between ED clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the most important variables for predicting length of stay greater than 4 h for fast track patients in our ED. Identifying factors that influence length of stay is a necessary step towards understanding ED patient flow and identifying improvement opportunities.

When Does Poor Governance Presage Biosecurity Risk?

Border inspection, and the challenge of deciding which of the tens of millions of consignments that arrive should be inspected, is a perennial problem for regulatory authorities. The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary. Other information associated with consignments includes details such as the country of origin, supplier, and importer, for example. The choice of which consignments to inspect has typically been informed by historical records of intercepted material. Fortunately for regulators, interception is a rare event; however, this sparsity undermines the utility of historical records for deciding which containers to inspect. In this article, we report on an analysis that uses more detailed information to inform inspection. Using quarantine biosecurity as a case study, we create statistical profiles using generalized linear mixed models and compare different model specifications with historical information alone, demonstrating the utility of a statistical modeling approach. We also demonstrate some graphical model summaries that provide managers with insight into pathway governance.

Risk factors for fouling biomass: evidence from small vessels in Australia.

Invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) are a threat to marine biodiversity and marine reliant industries. Recreational vessels are recognised as an important vector of NIS translocation, particularly domestically. This paper reports on a novel application of multilevel modelling and multiple imputation in order to quantify the relationship between biofouling biomass (wet weight) and the vessel-level characteristics of recreational and fishing vessels. It was found that the number of days since the vessel was last cleaned strongly related to the biofouling biomass, yet differed dependent on vessel type. Similarly, the median number of trips undertaken was related to the biofouling biomass, and varied according to the type of antifouling paint (AF) used. No relationship was found between vessel size and biofouling biomass per sample unit. To reduce the spread of NIS, vessel owners should use an AF paint suitable to their vessel's operational profile, and follow a maintenance schedule according to the paint manufacturer's specifications.

Protocol for a single-centre, parallel-arm, randomised controlled superiority trial evaluating the effects of transcatheter arterial embolisation of abnormal knee neovasculature on pain, function and quality of life in people with knee osteoarthritis.

INTRODUCTION: Symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) is common. Advanced knee OA is successfully treated with joint replacement surgery, but effectively managing mild to moderate knee OA can be difficult. Angiogenesis increases with OA and might contribute to pain and structural damage. Modifying angiogenesis is a potential treatment pathway for OA. The aim of the current study is to determine whether transcatheter arterial embolisation of abnormal neovasculature arising from the genicular arterial branches improves knee pain, physical function and quality of life in people with mild to moderate symptomatic knee OA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study is a single centre, parallel-arm, double-blinded (participant and assessor), randomised controlled superiority trial with 1:1 random block allocation. Eligible participants have mild to moderate symptomatic knee OA and will be randomly assigned to receive either embolisation of aberrant knee neovasculature of genicular arterial branches or a placebo intervention. Outcome measures will be collected prior to the intervention and again 1, 6 and 12 months postintervention. The primary outcome is change in knee pain between baseline and 12 month assessment as measured by the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS). Secondary outcomes include change in self-reported physical function (KOOS), self-reported quality of life (KOOS, EuroQol: EQ-5D-5L), self-reported knee joint stiffness (KOOS), self-reported global change, 6 min walk test performance, and 30 s chair-stand test performance. Intention-to-treat analysis will be performed including all participants as randomised. To detect a mean between group difference in change pain of 20% at the one year reassessment with a two-sided significance level of α=0.05 and power of 80% using a two-sample t-test, we require 29 participants per arm which allows for 20% of participants to drop out. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Barwon Health Human Research Ethics Committee, 30 May 2016, (ref:15/101). Study results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Universal trial number U1111-1183-8503, Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001184460, approved 29 August 2016.

Prevalence, goals of care and long-term outcomes of patients with life-limiting illness referred to a tertiary ICU.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence, characteristics, long-term outcomes and goals-of-care discussions of patients with objective indicators of life-limiting illnesses (LLIs) referred to the intensive care unit. DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS: A prospective, observational, cohort study of all adult inpatients referred to the ICU by the medical emergency team or by direct referral, during the period 30 August 2012 to 1 February 2013, at a tertiary teaching hospital in Australia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality, LLIs, discharge destination and documentation on goals of care in medical record. RESULTS: A total of 649 of 1024 patients referred to the ICU had an LLI, and only 34.4% of these patients had goals of care documented. Overall, 49.2% were admitted to the ICU, 48.4% were discharged home, and the 1-year mortality was 35.1%. The most common LLI criteria were heart disease (52.2%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (24.8%) and frailty (23.7%). The highest 1-year mortality was associated with pre-hospital residence in a nursing home (64.9%), dementia (63.3%), cancer (60.8%) and frailty (50.6%). Analysis of patients by clinical trajectory showed that 1-year mortality was significantly higher for patients with cancer (59.6%), combined organ failure and frailty (47.3%), frailty (43.8%) and organ failure (23.6%), compared with patients with no LLI (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of patients referred to the ICU have an LLI, and this is associated with prolonged hospital length of stay and a high 1-year mortality, and only one-quarter have documented discussions on goals of care. Patients with cancer-related and frailty-related LLIs have the worst survival trajectories.

The Post-Anaesthesia N-acetylcysteine Cognitive Evaluation (PANACEA) trial: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Some degree of cognitive decline after surgery occurs in as many as one quarter of elderly surgical patients, and this decline is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Cognition may be affected across a range of domains, including memory, psychomotor skills, and executive function. Whilst the exact mechanisms of cognitive change after surgery are not precisely known, oxidative stress and subsequent neuroinflammation have been implicated. N-acetylcysteine (NAC) acts via multiple interrelated mechanisms to influence oxidative homeostasis, neuronal transmission, and inflammation. NAC has been shown to reduce oxidative stress and inflammation in both human and animal models. There is clinical evidence to suggest that NAC may be beneficial in preventing the cognitive decline associated with both acute physiological insults and dementia-related disorders. To date, no trials have examined perioperative NAC as a potential moderator of postoperative cognitive changes in the noncardiac surgery setting. METHODS AND DESIGN: This is a single-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, with a between-group, repeated-measures, longitudinal design. The study will recruit 370 noncardiac surgical patients at the University Hospital Geelong, aged 60 years or older. Participants are randomly assigned to receive either NAC or placebo (1:1 ratio), and groups are stratified by age and surgery type. Participants undergo a series of neuropsychological tests prior to surgery, 7 days, 3 months, and 12 months post surgery. It is hypothesised that the perioperative administration of NAC will reduce the degree of postoperative cognitive changes at early and long-term follow-up, as measured by changes on individual measures of the neurocognitive battery, when compared with placebo. Serum samples are taken on the day of surgery and on day 2 post surgery to quantitate any changes in levels of biomarkers of inflammation and oxidative stress. DISCUSSION: The PANACEA trial aims to examine the potential efficacy of perioperative NAC to reduce the severity of postoperative cognitive dysfunction in an elderly, noncardiac surgery population. This is an entirely novel approach to the prevention of postoperative cognitive dysfunction and will have high impact and translatable outcomes if NAC is found to be beneficial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PANACEA trial has been registered with the Therapeutic Goods Administration, and the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12614000411640 ; registered on 15 April 2014.

Few geographic and socioeconomic variations exist in primary total shoulder arthroplasty: a multi-level study of Australian registry data.

BACKGROUND: Associations between socioeconomic position (SEP) and the uptake of primary total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) is not well understood in the Australian population, thus potentially limiting equitable allocation of healthcare resources. We used the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOA NJRR) to examine whether geographic or socioeconomic variations exist in TSA performed for a diagnosis of osteoarthritis 2007-11 for all Australians aged ≥40 years. METHODS: Primary anatomical and reverse TSA data were extracted from the AOA NJRR which captures >99 % of all TSA nationally. Residential addresses were cross-referenced to Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 Census data to identify SEP measured at the area-level (categorised into deciles), and geographic location defined as Australian State/Territory of residence. We used a Poisson distribution for the number of TSA over the study period, and modelled the effects of age, SEP and geographic location using multilevel modelling. RESULTS: During 2007-11, we observed 6,123 TSA (62.2 % female). For both sexes, TSA showed a proportional increase with advancing age. TSA did not vary by SEP or geographic location, with the exception of greater TSA among men in New South Wales. CONCLUSIONS: Using a national registry approach we provide the first reliable picture of TSA at a national level. The uptake of TSA was equitable across SEP; however, there was some variation between the States/Territories. With an aging population, it is imperative that monitoring of major surgical procedures continues, and be focused toward determining whether TSA uptake correlates with need across different social and area-based groups.

Ten-year outcomes using low dose rate brachytherapy for localised prostate cancer: An update to the first Australian experience.

INTRODUCTION: To report long-term prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and toxicity outcomes for patients with localised prostate cancer treated with Iodine-125 permanent implantation at a single Australian centre. METHODS: Between September 1994 and November 2007, 207 patients at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital with localised prostate cancer were consecutively treated with Iodine-125 permanent interstitial implantation. Post-therapy assessment was performed three times a month and included clinical review and biochemical (PSA) evaluation. PSA progression was evaluated using the Phoenix (nadir + 2.0) definition. Treatment-related morbidity was assessed using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 3.0 guidelines. The rate of biochemical failure was calculated by Kaplan-Meier plots. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate outcomes by pre-treatment clinical prognostic factors and radiation dosimetry. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 7.8 years. The 10-year biochemical disease-free survival (bDFS) for the entire cohort was 89%. Ten-year bDFS estimates by pre-treatment risk group were 96% for low-risk, 83% for intermediate-risk and 50% for high-risk disease. On multivariate analysis, pre-treatment PSA was an independent predictor of bDFS. D90 dose did not show a statistically significant effect on bDFS. The peak incidences of late grade 3 or higher urinary and rectal toxicities were 10.7% and 1.1% respectively. CONCLUSION: Excellent long-term biochemical control was demonstrated with Iodine-125 permanent interstitial implantation in appropriately selected patients with prostate cancer. The results of our single centre experience are comparable with those of other single institutions.

Changes in Bone Mineral Density in the Year after Critical Illness.

RATIONALE: Critical illness may be associated with increased bone turnover and loss of bone mineral density (BMD). Prospective evidence describing long-term changes in BMD after critical illness is needed to further define this relationship. OBJECTIVES: To measure the change in BMD and bone turnover markers (BTMs) in subjects 1 year after critical illness compared with population-based control subjects. METHODS: We studied adult patients admitted to a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) who required mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours. We measured clinical characteristics, BTMs, and BMD during admission and 1 year after ICU discharge. We compared change in BMD to age- and sex-matched control subjects from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Sixty-six patients completed BMD testing. BMD decreased significantly in the year after critical illness at both femoral neck and anterior-posterior spine sites. The annual decrease was significantly greater in the ICU cohort compared with matched control subjects (anterior-posterior spine, -1.59%; 95% confidence interval, -2.18 to -1.01; P < 0.001; femoral neck, -1.20%; 95% confidence interval, -1.69 to -0.70; P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in 10-year fracture risk for major fractures (4.85 ± 5.25 vs. 5.50 ± 5.52; P < 0.001) and hip fractures (1.57 ± 2.40 vs. 1.79 ± 2.69; P = 0.001). The pattern of bone resorption markers was consistent with accelerated bone turnover. CONCLUSIONS: Critically ill individuals experience a significantly greater decrease in BMD in the year after admission compared with population-based control subjects. Their bone turnover biomarker pattern is consistent with an increased rate of bone loss.

The Epidemiology of Incident Fracture from Cradle to Senescence.

To reduce the burden of fracture, not only does bone fragility need to be addressed, but also injury prevention. Thus, fracture epidemiology irrespective of degree of trauma is informative. We aimed to determine age-and-sex-specific fracture incidence rates for the Barwon Statistical Division, Australia, 2006-2007. Using radiology reports, incident fractures were identified for 5342 males and 4512 females, with incidence of 210.4 (95 % CI 204.8, 216.2) and 160.0 (155.3, 164.7)/10,000/year, respectively. In females, spine (clinical vertebral), hip (proximal femoral) and distal forearm fractures demonstrated a pattern of stable incidence through early adult life, with an exponential increase beginning in postmenopausal years for fractures of the forearm followed by spine and hip. A similar pattern was observed for the pelvis, humerus, femur and patella. Distal forearm, humerus, other forearm and ankle fractures showed incidence peaks during childhood and adolescence. For males, age-related changes mimicked the female pattern for fractures of the spine, hip, ribs, pelvis and humerus. Incidence at these sites was generally lower for males, particularly among the elderly. A similar childhood-adolescent peak was seen for the distal forearm and humerus. For ankle fractures, there was an increase during childhood and adolescence but this extended into early adult life; in contrast to females, there were no further age-related increases. An adolescent-young adult peak incidence was observed for fractures of the face, clavicle, carpal bones, hand, fingers, foot and toe, without further age-related increases. Examining patterns of fracture provides the evidence base for monitoring temporal changes in fracture burden, and for identifying high-incidence groups to which fracture prevention strategies could be directed.

FRAX (Aus) and falls risk: Association in men and women.

PURPOSE: The WHO fracture risk prediction tool (FRAX®) utilises clinical risk factors to estimate the probability of fracture over a 10-year period. Although falls increase fracture risk, they have not been incorporated into FRAX. It is currently unclear if FRAX captures falls risk and whether addition of falls would improve fracture prediction. We aimed to investigate the association of falls risk and Australian-specific FRAX. METHODS: Clinical risk factors were documented for 735 men and 602 women (age 40-90 yr) assessed at follow-up (2006-2010 and 2000-2003, respectively) of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. FRAX scores with and without BMD were calculated. A falls risk score was determined at the time of BMD assessment and self-reported incident falls were documented from questionnaires returned one year later. Multivariable analyses were performed to determine: (i) cross-sectional association between FRAX scores and falls risk score (Elderly Falls Screening Test, EFST) and (ii) prospective relationship between FRAX and time to a fall. RESULTS: There was an association between FRAX (hip with BMD) and EFST scores (ß = 0.07, p < 0.001). After adjustment for sex and age, the relationship became non-significant (ß = 0.00, p = 0.79). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX (hip with BMD) score (unadjusted HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07). After adjustment for age and sex, the relationship became non-significant (1.01, 95% CI 0.97, 1.05). CONCLUSIONS: There is a weak positive correlation between FRAX and falls risk score, that is likely explained by the inclusion of age and sex in the FRAX model. These data suggest that FRAX score may not be a robust surrogate for falls risk and that inclusion of falls in fracture risk assessment should be further explored.

Associations between socioeconomic status and primary total knee joint replacements performed for osteoarthritis across Australia 2003-10: data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.

BACKGROUND: Relatively little is known about the social distribution of total knee joint replacement (TKR) uptake in Australia. We examine associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and TKR performed for diagnosed osteoarthritis 2003-10 for all Australian males and females aged ≥ 30 yr. METHODS: Data of primary TKR (n=213,018, 57.4% female) were ascertained from a comprehensive national joint replacement registry. Residential addresses were matched to Australian Census data to identify area-level social disadvantage, and categorised into deciles. Estimated TKR rates were calculated. Poisson regression was used to model the relative risk (RR) of age-adjusted TKR per 1,000py, stratified by sex and SES. RESULTS: A negative relationship was observed between TKR rates and SES deciles. Females had a greater rate of TKR than males. Surgery utilisation was greatest for all adults aged 70-79 yr. In that age group differences in estimated TKR per 1,000py between deciles were greater for 2010 than 2003 (females: 2010 RR 4.32 and 2003 RR 3.67; males: 2010 RR 2.04 and 2003 RR 1.78). CONCLUSIONS: Identifying factors associated with TKR utilisation and SES may enhance resource planning and promote surgery utilisation for end-stage osteoarthritis.

Impact of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assays on patients presenting to an emergency department with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether introduction of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTn-I) assays affected management of patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary referral hospital. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND SETTING: A retrospective analysis of all patients presenting to the Geelong Hospital ED with suspected ACS from 23 April 2010 to 22 April 2013 -2 years before and 1 year after the changeover to hscTn-I assays on 23 April 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospital admission rates, time spent in the ED, rates of coronary angiography, rates of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABGS), rates of discharge with a diagnosis of ACS, and rates of inhospital mortality. RESULTS: 12 360 consecutive patients presented with suspected ACS during the study period; 1897 were admitted to Geelong Hospital in the 2 years before and 944 in the 1 year after the changeover to hscTn-I assays. Comparing the two patient groups, there was no statistically significant difference in all-hospital admission rates (95% CI for the difference, - 3.1% to 0.3%; P = 0.10) or proportion of patients subsequently discharged with a diagnosis of ACS (95% CI for the difference, - 2.3% to 5.4%; P = 0.43). After the changeover, the median time patients spent in the ED was 11.5% shorter (3.85 h v 4.35 h; 95% CI for the difference, - 0.59 to - 0.43; P < 0.001) and the proportion of admitted patients undergoing coronary angiography was higher (53.4% v 45.2%; 95% CI for the difference, 4.3 to 12.0 percentage points; P < 0.001), but there was no statistically significant rise in the proportion of patients who had invasive treatment (PCI and/or CABGS) (95% CI for the difference, - 0.4% to 6.3%; P = 0.08). Inhospital mortality rates from ACS did not change significantly (95% CI for the difference, - 1.5% to 0.8%; P = 0.43). CONCLUSION: The introduction of hscTn-I assays appeared to be associated with more rapid diagnosis, resulting in less time spent in the ED, without a change in hospital admission rates. A higher proportion of patients had coronary angiographies after the changeover, but there was no significant change in rates of invasive treatment or inhospital mortality.

Hepatitis C virus treatment in the 'real-world': how well do 'real' patients respond?

BACKGROUND: Published clinical trials of the treatment of HCV are largely multicentre prospective pharmaceutical trials. Patients in clinical trials tend to have more favorable outcomes than patients in the 'real-world', due to strict patient selection and differences in treatment conditions and available resources. OBJECTIVES: To assess the outcomes of Hepatitis C infected patients treated at the Barwon Health Liver Clinic with combination Pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and Ribavirin (RBV) therapy and to determine factors associated with a treatment response. METHODS: Retrospective review of patients who received treatment for Hepatitis C at our institution's Liver Clinic from January 2001-September 2011. Patient demographics, comorbidities, treatment-related parameters and side effects were extracted from medical records and analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 190 patients (120 male, 70 female) with a mean age of 42.8 years (range 20-68 years) commenced treatment. The most common genotype was genotype 3 (48.9%), followed by genotype 1 (42.6%). 150 of 190 patients (78.9%) completed treatment and had end of treatment data available. 107 of 182 patients, (58.8%) for whom sustained virologic response (SVR) rate data was available achieved an SVR. Overall response rates were; 46.9%, 68.8% and 62.4% in genotypes 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The response rate was significantly lower in 29 patients with documented cirrhosis (20.7%). Age, diabetes and alcohol abuse did not predict treatment response in our cohort. Side effects reported in 81.6% of patients included general malaise, hematological disturbance and psychiatric issues, and necessitated cessation of therapy in 16 patients (8.4%) and dose reduction in 26 patients (13.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Response rates to combination PEG-IFN and RBV therapy at our institution are comparable to other 'real-world' and pharmaceutical registration trials. Side effects of combination therapy were prominent but resulted in fewer discontinuations of therapy compared to pharmaceutical trials.