Bayesian estimation of the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Hungarian dairy cattle herds.

Paratuberculosis is a chronic incurable disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which leads to extensive economic losses on dairy farms, and may also pose serious public health risk to the consumers. The aim of our study was to estimate the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in commercial dairy cattle herds participating in a voluntary MAP testing programme that started in February 2018 in Hungary. Milk samples collected during official milk recording were used for MAP ELISA testing. A Bayesian two-stage hierarchical (herd and animal level) model was fitted to the data. Altogether, 26,437 cows from 51 herds were sampled, which represents 14.4 % of the Hungarian dairy cow population. The median herd size was 477 cows (interquartile range: 331-709). Each studied farm had at least one ELISA positive cow, resulting in a herd-level apparent prevalence of 100 %. The overall within herd apparent prevalence was 5.5 %. Herd-level true prevalence was estimated at 89.1 % [95 % credible interval (CrI): 80.3-95.6%]. Within the infected herds, the median animal-level true prevalence was 4.4 % (3.2-5.8%) for primiparous and 10.3 % (7.9-12.9%) for multiparous cows, respectively. The probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% among primiparous cows, within infected herds, was 17.8 %. Similarly, the probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% or 10 % among multiparous cows was 100 % and 56 %, respectively. Simulations assuming herd-level true prevalence varying from 50 to 100 % revealed high accuracy of our Bayesian model. Our study showed that a large percentage of the studied Hungarian dairy cattle herds was infected with MAP.

Associations between management practices and major reproductive parameters of Holstein-Friesian replacement heifers.

The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the reproductive management practices and the performance of replacement heifers on large commercial dairy farms. The individual data of 14,763 heifers, first inseminated in 2014, were analysed from 33 Holstein-Friesian dairy herds in Hungary. The relationships between management practices and major reproductive parameters (age at first service, AFS; age at first calving, AFC; conception risk to first insemination, CR1; and pregnancy status at 20 months of age) were examined by mixed-effects models, with the herd as the random effect. The results showed that farms using oestrus detection aids experienced reduced AFS (p<0.001) and AFC (p=0.001). Observation of oestrus for shorter periods instead of continuously showed a tendency towards lower AFC (p=0.057) and was associated with higher odds of pregnancy at 20 months of age (p=0.020). Heifers on farms using sexed semen had younger AFS, but poorer CR1, compared to those using conventional semen exclusively (p<0.05). In addition, the odds of heifers being pregnant by 20 months of age was higher on farms with more experience using sexed semen (p=0.020). Frequent pregnancy diagnosis (i.e. more than once per week) was associated with younger AFC (p=0.023). Our results suggest the use of certain advanced reproductive management practices for heifer reproductive management in large dairy herds (e.g. oestrus detection aids), which can improve reproductive efficiency considerably, but are currently used only to a limited extent.