Distributed lag models for hydrological data.

The distributed lag model (DLM), used most prominently in air pollution studies, finds application wherever the effect of a covariate is delayed and distributed through time. We specify modified formulations of DLMs to provide computationally attractive, flexible varying-coefficient models that are applicable in any setting in which lagged covariates are regressed on a time-dependent response. We investigate the application of such models to rainfall and river flow and in particular their role in understanding the impact of hidden variables at work in river systems. We apply two models to data from a Scottish mountain river, and we fit to some simulated data to check the efficacy of our model approach. During heavy rainfall conditions, changes in the influence of rainfall on flow arise through a complex interaction between antecedent ground wetness and a time-delay in rainfall. The models identify subtle changes in responsiveness to rainfall, particularly in the location of peak influence in the lag structure.

Investigating riparian margins for vegetation patterns and plant-environment relationships in northeast Scotland.

Buffer strips alongside watercourses are a widely accepted method of reducing nutrient and sediment run-off from agricultural land thereby improving water quality. Little attention, however, has been paid to the ecological status of these areas despite the fact that riparian habitats in good condition can provide multiple benefits. We investigated vegetation patterns and plant-environment relationships within three categories of riparian margins in northeast Scotland. The margins were categorized as unbuffered, buffered, or reference (target), the latter representing the best sites available within the catchments. Vascular plant and soil data were collected from 41 sites along the tributaries of two rivers during 2008 and 2009. Ellenberg indicator values revealed trends of decreasing light availability ( < 0.05) and decreasing pH ( < 0.01) from unbuffered sites to buffered sites to reference sites. Multivariate analysis showed that soil parameters and channel morphology, together with canopy cover and bryophyte abundance, were discriminatory in separating species assemblages. The presence of a tree canopy layer appears to be the key instigator of change in soil conditions and corresponding plant species assemblages. An understanding of the underlying processes is important if vegetation characteristics are to be used effectively as indicators of riparian and water quality and to aid the restoration of riparian habitats.

Vegetated buffer strips can lead to increased release of phosphorus to waters: a biogeochemical assessment of the mechanisms.

Establishing vegetated buffer strips (VBS) between cropland and watercourses is currently promoted as a principal control of diffuse pollution transport. However, we lackthe mechanistic understanding to evaluate P retention in VBS and predict risks of P transport to aquatic ecosystems. We observed that VBS establishment led to enhanced rates of soil P cycling, increasing soil P solubility and the potential amount leached to watercourses. Soil in VBS, relative to adjacentfields, had increased inorganic P solubility indices, dissolved organic P, phosphatase enzyme activity, microbial diversity, and biomass P. Small relative increases in the pool of soil P rendered labile had disproportionate effects on the P available for leaching. We propose a mechanism whereby the establishment of VBS on previous agricultural land causes a diversifying plant-microbial system which can access previous immobilized soil P from past fertilization or trapped sediment P. Laboratory experiments suggested that sediment-P inputs to VBS were insufficient alone to increase P solubility without biological cycling. Results showthat VBS management may require strategies, for example, harvesting vegetation, to offset biochemical processes that can increase the susceptibility of VBS soil P to move to adjoining streams.