Energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling for the EU energy and post-COVID-19 transitions.

Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions' reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability.

Three Dimensional Carotid and Femoral Ultrasound is not Superior to Two Dimensional Ultrasound as a Predictor of Coronary Atherosclerosis Among Men With Intermediate Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: Current cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification scales, drawn up from traditional risk factors, have important limitations. The detection of subclinical atherosclerosis, by a non-invasive technique such as peripheral arteries ultrasound (US) may improve cardiovascular risk (CVR) stratification, especially in intermediate risk population. Our aim was to compare the predictive power of atherosclerotic plaques detected in carotid and femoral arteries by 2-dimensional (2D) vs. 3-dimensional (3D) US for positive coronary artery calcium score (CACS), used as a proxy for CVD, in a middle-aged sample with intermediate 10-year CVR (7.5-20%). METHODS: To detect atherosclerotic plaques by 2D vs. 3D US scan of carotid and femoral arteries and comparison of their association with CACS obtained by computed tomography (CT) of subjects with intermediate CVR belonging to the Aragon Workers' Health Study. RESULTS: 120 men were included, with a 10.4% average 10 years CVR. Forty-one (34.2%) participants had CACS ≥ 1. 90 participants (75%) had at least one plaque detected by 2D scan while 85 participants (70.8%) had at least a plaque detected by 3D US. Conventional CVR estimates c-statistic for CACS was .590. Although the variables most predicted of CACS ≥ 1 were those measured by 3D US (total plaque volume and mean of plaque density, c-statistics: .743 and .750 respectively), their predictive capacity was not statistically significantly different from the number of territories with plaque, measured either by 2D and 3D US (c-statistics .728 to .740 respectively). CONCLUSION: Subclinical atherosclerosis measured by 2D and 3D US were better predictors of CACS ≥ 1 than CVR estimated by conventional guidelines. In our sample, 3D US did not show any significant advantages with respect to 2D US for the prediction of coronary atherosclerosis.

Effects of water re-allocation in the Ebro river basin: A multiregional input-output and geographical analysis.

The quality and availability of water are affected by numerous variables, through which the evaluation of water uses from different perspectives, and policy proposals to save water have now become essential. This paper aims to study water use and the water footprint from a river basin perspective, taking into account regions, sectors, and municipalities, while considering the physical frontier along with the administrative sectors. To this end, we have constructed a multi-regional input-output table for the Ebro river basin, disaggregating the primary sector into 18 different crops and 6 livestock groups. We pay special attention to crop production because it is the most water-consuming industry. The construction of the multi-regional input-output model represents an important contribution to the literature, in itself, since, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first to be built for this large basin. We extend this multi-regional input-output model to assess the water footprint by sectors and regions within the basin. We use these data to propose two scenarios: reallocating final demand to reduce the blue water footprint (scenario 1), and increasing value added (scenario 2). These scenarios outline the opportunity costs of saving water in socioeconomic terms in the basin. In another application, we downscale the multi-regional input-output model results at the municipal level and depict them using a geographical information system, identifying the hotspots and the areas that would pay for the socioeconomic opportunity costs of saving water. Our results suggest that saving 1 hm3 of blue water could cost around €41,500 of value added if we consider the entire basin. However, this water re-allocation implies losses and gains at the municipal level: some municipalities would reduce value added by more than €30,000, while others would gain more than €85,000 of value added. These tools and results can be useful for policy makers when considering re-allocating water. The contribution and the novelty of this paper is the construction of the multiregional input-output model for the Ebro river basin, and its link with geographical systems analysis at the municipal level.