A Bayesian estimation approach for the mortality in a stage-structured demographic model.

Control interventions in sustainable pest management schemes are set according to the phenology and the population abundance of the pests. This information can be obtained using suitable mathematical models that describe the population dynamics based on individual life history responses to environmental conditions and resource availability. These responses are described by development, fecundity and survival rate functions, which can be estimated from laboratory experiments. If experimental data are not available, data on field population dynamics can be used for their estimation. This is the case of the extrinsic mortality term that appears in the mortality rate function due to biotic factors. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the probability density functions of the parameters in the extrinsic mortality rate function, starting from data on population abundance. The method investigates the time variability in the mortality parameters by comparing simulated and observed trajectories. The grape berry moth, a pest of great importance in European vineyards, has been considered as a case study. Simulated data have been considered to evaluate the convergence of the algorithm, while field data have been used to obtain estimates of the mortality for the grape berry moth.

Model of arterial tree and peripheral control for the study of physiological and assisted circulation.

Peripheral vasomotion, interstitial liquid exchange, and cardiovascular system behaviour are investigated by means of a lumped parameter model of the systemic and peripheral circulation, from the aortic valve to the venules. This modelling work aims at combining arterial tree hemodynamics description, active peripheral flow regulation, and fluid exchange. The arterial compartment is constructed with 63 RCL segments and 30 peripheral districts including myogenic control on arterioles, metabolic control on venules, and Starling filtration through capillary membrane. The arterial behaviour is characterised as to the long term stability of pressure/flow waves in the different segments. Peripheral districts show autoregulatory capabilities against pressure changes over a wide range and also self-sustained oscillations mimicking vasomotor activity. A preliminary study was carried out as to the model response to changes induced by cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Among the induced alterations, the system responds mainly to hemodilution, which increased peripheral fluid loss and oedema beyond the compensatory capabilities of local regulation mechanisms. This resulted in an overall increase total arterial resistance. Local transport deficits were assessed for each district according to the different metabolic demand. This study shows the requirement of a suitable description of both arteries and peripheral mechanisms in order to describe cardiovascular response non-physiological conditions, as well as assisted circulation or other pathological conditions.